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Raiffeisen's potential exit from Russia would crystalize a fall in core capital ratios and dent profitability prospects Originally published on 18 March 2022
On 17 March, Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI, A2/A2 stable, baa31 ) announced that in light of the human suffering caused by the military conflict in Ukraine (Caa2 review for downgrade), it will evaluate strategic options for its Russian subsidiary AO RAIFFEISENBANK (Ca negative, ca), including a possible managed exit from Russia (Ca negative). A separation from AO RAIFFEISENBANK would crystalize a decline in RBI's core capital ratios and lastingly dent the group's profitability prospects, a credit negative. At the same time, an exit from Russia would shift RBI's regional footprint to its more stable home market of Austria and surrounding Central and Eastern European countries from markets with more adverse operating environments. RBI's setup of broadly independent and domestically funded entities operating under a multiple point of entry (MPE) approach from a resolution perspective facilitates the separation of individual group members. In the case of Russia, the very limited cross-border exposures confine losses principally to the local capital investment, as shown in our capital effect analysis in the exhibit. In case of an exit from Russia, a stabilization of RBI's capital ratios will require cutbacks on payouts and business growth 13%+ 0.4%- 0.5% Effect of factors without offset is calculated as a % of original risk-weighted assets Sources: Company data and Moody's Investors Service The exhibit also outlines the expected positive effect from potential offsetting measures RBI's management could employ to support a return of the bank's regulatory Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio to the 13% target. One option would be to transfer retained earnings earmarked for postponed dividend payments to CET1-eligible accounts. RBI may also benefit from the positive market value of its ruble hedge, which was designed to protect the group's CET1 capital ratio from currency depreciation. The value of this hedge can be higher or lower when RBI settles it, and the bank would benefit from additional ruble depreciation against the euro. RBI may also decide to scale back its growth targets in its other markets that the bank expected to consume most of the capital benefit of its announced sale of its Bulgarian subsidiary. Among RBI’s main operating markets in Central and Eastern Europe, Russia has been highly profitable, but also very volatile. An exit of Russian operations would reduce profitability, but create a more predictable geographical setup of the group. If RBI were to exit Russia, 9 Credit Outlook: 21 March 2022 management would need to carefully manage the interests of local stakeholders, including employees and customers. By contrast, a decision to maintain a Russian presence under RBI's ownership amid the broad sanctions against the country's financial sector risks exposing the group to greater reputational risk among customers and business partners across its international network. Within the adverse operating circumstances in Russia, we expect an exit process to be complex. A nationalization scenario would become likely if AO RAIFFEISENBANK came under regulatory scrutiny, for instance if capitalization approached regulatory minimum requirements or if depositors were to withdraw cash in anticipation of a rushed exit of the owner. At the same time, we expect that a sale of the Russian entity would be challenging to execute in a manner that resulted in receipt of hard currency proceeds to Austrian accounts. Possible alternative solutions that could allow AO RAIFFEISENBANK to remain operational include a donation of RBI's stake to a local foundation. In the absence of a short-term separation of Russian activities, the immediate financial effects on RBI will focus on impairment losses in RBI's financial accounts to reflect the highly risky nature of the net investment of the group in Eastern Europe2 , which will be partly mitigated by gains under RBI's ruble hedge.
Raiffeisen's potential exit from Russia would crystalize a fall in core capital ratios and dent profitability prospects Originally published on 18 March 2022
On 17 March, Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI, A2/A2 stable, baa31 ) announced that in light of the human suffering caused by the military conflict in Ukraine (Caa2 review for downgrade), it will evaluate strategic options for its Russian subsidiary AO RAIFFEISENBANK (Ca negative, ca), including a possible managed exit from Russia (Ca negative). A separation from AO RAIFFEISENBANK would crystalize a decline in RBI's core capital ratios and lastingly dent the group's profitability prospects, a credit negative. At the same time, an exit from Russia would shift RBI's regional footprint to its more stable home market of Austria and surrounding Central and Eastern European countries from markets with more adverse operating environments. RBI's setup of broadly independent and domestically funded entities operating under a multiple point of entry (MPE) approach from a resolution perspective facilitates the separation of individual group members. In the case of Russia, the very limited cross-border exposures confine losses principally to the local capital investment, as shown in our capital effect analysis in the exhibit. In case of an exit from Russia, a stabilization of RBI's capital ratios will require cutbacks on payouts and business growth 13%+ 0.4%- 0.5% Effect of factors without offset is calculated as a % of original risk-weighted assets Sources: Company data and Moody's Investors Service The exhibit also outlines the expected positive effect from potential offsetting measures RBI's management could employ to support a return of the bank's regulatory Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio to the 13% target. One option would be to transfer retained earnings earmarked for postponed dividend payments to CET1-eligible accounts. RBI may also benefit from the positive market value of its ruble hedge, which was designed to protect the group's CET1 capital ratio from currency depreciation. The value of this hedge can be higher or lower when RBI settles it, and the bank would benefit from additional ruble depreciation against the euro. RBI may also decide to scale back its growth targets in its other markets that the bank expected to consume most of the capital benefit of its announced sale of its Bulgarian subsidiary. Among RBI’s main operating markets in Central and Eastern Europe, Russia has been highly profitable, but also very volatile. An exit of Russian operations would reduce profitability, but create a more predictable geographical setup of the group. If RBI were to exit Russia, 9 Credit Outlook: 21 March 2022 management would need to carefully manage the interests of local stakeholders, including employees and customers. By contrast, a decision to maintain a Russian presence under RBI's ownership amid the broad sanctions against the country's financial sector risks exposing the group to greater reputational risk among customers and business partners across its international network. Within the adverse operating circumstances in Russia, we expect an exit process to be complex. A nationalization scenario would become likely if AO RAIFFEISENBANK came under regulatory scrutiny, for instance if capitalization approached regulatory minimum requirements or if depositors were to withdraw cash in anticipation of a rushed exit of the owner. At the same time, we expect that a sale of the Russian entity would be challenging to execute in a manner that resulted in receipt of hard currency proceeds to Austrian accounts. Possible alternative solutions that could allow AO RAIFFEISENBANK to remain operational include a donation of RBI's stake to a local foundation. In the absence of a short-term separation of Russian activities, the immediate financial effects on RBI will focus on impairment losses in RBI's financial accounts to reflect the highly risky nature of the net investment of the group in Eastern Europe2 , which will be partly mitigated by gains under RBI's ruble hedge.
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