Delle terre rare si e' parlato qualche post fa: di societa' che hanno i finanziamenti ed i permessi per fasr entrare in produzione le miniere in un paio di anni ce ne sono due, tutto il resto e' poco piu' che fuffa che va su perche' ha "terre rare" nel nome.
A mio parere chi volesse investire nel settore dovrebbe comperarsi le Molycorp (MCP) con un ottica temporale di almeno due anni.
Per inciso oggi la MCP sta facendo un +10% sulla notizia che hanno ricevuto l'ultima autorizzazione ambientale per aprire la miniera.
Riporto di seguito l'analisi di una presentazione della societa' fatta il primo di dicembre:
Molycorp: Commentary From Baird Clean Technology Conference -- Mountain Pass Mine Plans Remain On Track For July 2012 Full Production (30.80 +1.82)
During the analyst conference, MCP stated that its "mine-to-magnets" project -- also known as its Mountain Pass modernization plan -- is on schedule and the company is expecting to break ground on January 2, 2010. By July 2012, MCP is anticipating the mine to be mechanically complete with full production rates planned by December 31, 2012. By that time, MCP's goal is to have 100% of its planned production volume contracted. Currently, the company has the capacity to produce 3,000 tons of rare earth oxides. Its current capacity expansion plans at Mountain Pass will give it the ability to produce 19,050 tons per year. However, it will be buidling out the mine with the capability to produce 40,000 tons per year, and has the current permitting in place to be able to do that. Management stated that the Mountain Pass mine has very high ore grade and has an estimated life of 30 plus years. Also, out of the 15 rare earth elements, nine of them are considered to be commercially signficant. The company will be producing all nine of these.
The company commented that demand remains very high for REOs. In fact, MCP says that it is consistently receiving calls from worried customers about where it will find supply of REOs. REOs are used in a host of difference applications, including hybrid cars and wind turbines, and the global need is expected to grow from 125K tons this year to 205K tons in 2015, for a 64% increase. Management also mentioned the drastic export cuts from China, and said that there is a critical need for production outside of China. Due to these export cuts, prices of many REOs have dramatically shot up. For instance, lanthanum oxide is up a staggering 641% from March to November, and praseodymiun is up 125% and neodymium is up 146%. Furthermore, the company does not see a fix in the near term in regards to pricing because the supply constraints are going to be an issue for some time -- even after MCP has fully ramped its Mountain Pass mine.
MCP compared its cost structure to Lynas -- a competitor with an REO operation in Western Australia -- saying that it will be able to produce REOs at a cost of $1.26/pound versus $2.56/pound for Lynas. A major reason for this advantage is that MCP has on-site gas co-generation to run its mine, rather than having it brought in from outside sources. MCP has also had little difficulty securing new customers, as it currently has 19 letters of intent, representing 138% of 2013 anticipated production volumne. Its current goal is to convert letters of intent such that 25% of its planned 20K tons/year production is contracted.
Bottom Line: There really wasn't any new information that was divulged during this conference call, although it did firmly reiterate that the REO supply shortage is causing a massive spike in prices that aren't likely to soften any time soon. Also, its Mountain Pass mine plans remain on track and the company remains set to become one of the first sources to provide REOs outside of China. Another interesting takeaway is that management is very excited about the potential for its XSORBX product, which is being readied for introduction into the drinking water and water purification markets. This product doesn't get too much attention, but the company sees "material revenue" from it in the near-term. Overall, the story remains the same for MCP -- it remains one of the few legitimate plays on the rare earth phenomenon. To read more about MCP,click here to access our review of its IPO pricing.
