Ciao Dino, premesso che non la seguo (ho dovuto abdicare al mio proposito di seguire anche questo comparto merceologico, non ce la faccio...
) Ricordavo di aver scaricato un bollettino in cui Fitch motivava la riduzione dell'outlook, e lo ho recuperato... eccolo qua...
Che dire: ad una valutazione spannometrica, mi sembra si stiano comportando bene... aumento di capitale (in parte adoperato per il ripagamento anticipato di un loan bancario), taglio a spese ed investimenti, buona la disponibilità di liquidità... in negativo l'andamento del comparto (e poi bisognerebbe vedere quale è in % sul fatturato la loro esposizione al mercato IRL, a quello UK e a quello USA, dove le cose vanno peggio che altrove...) e la crescita del debito, che è stata piuttosto sostenuta nel 2008 rispetto al 2007.
Fitch Affirms CRH at 'BBB+'; Revises Outlook to Negative
12 May 2009 12:31 PM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London/Warsaw/Milan-12 May 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed Dublin-based international building materials group CRH plc's (CRH) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating at 'BBB+'. Fitch has also affirmed CRH's Short-term IDR at 'F2'. The agency has revised the Outlook on the company's Long-term IDR to Negative from Stable. At the same time, Fitch has affirmed CRH America, Inc.'s (CRH America) senior unsecured rating at 'BBB+'. CRH America is a subsidiary of CRH.
The Outlook revision reflects Fitch's expectation that CRH's credit metrics will be weak for its current ratings in 2009 despite a number of cash enhancement measures announced by management following the sharp decline in global trading conditions during H208.
CRH's credit profile weakened in 2008 and the group recently announced a EUR1.2bn capital increase, cost cutting and working capital efficiency measures, and a curb in capex. However, the agency believes that these measures might not be sufficient within the next 18 to 24 months to allow CRH to return to credit metrics commensurate with its current ratings, which include a lease adjusted net debt/EBITDA less than 2.5x.
The agency will monitor management's willingness to maintain a flexible acquisition growth strategy should profit generation uncertainty increase, and to preserve cash. CRH's ratings could be downgraded by one notch if Fitch considers that the company's acquisition spending rises above levels that would enable a sustainable recovery in the company's credit metrics. CRH's ratings continue to reflect its diversification in terms of product exposure to heavy and light building materials, geography and end-markets. The company has a solid track record in generating cash flow from operations and in integrating acquired businesses.
Fitch's latest forecast assumptions for CRH include a low double-digit decline in organic revenue in 2009 and a flat performance in 2010, as well as deteriorating EBITDA margins in 2009, although EBITDA margins are expected to recover slightly in 2010. Under this scenario, Fitch forecasts that CRH's free cash flow (FCF) margin in the coming 24 months will likely be in line with its average FCF margin of the past five years (4.3%).
However, the combination of expected declining profits and acquisition spending above a total of EUR1bn during 2009-2010 might result in CRH's lease adjusted net-leverage ratio remaining above 2.5x. Fitch has not factored any potentially positive effect, stemming from economic stimulus packages announced in a number of major economies, into its forecasts due to the uncertain timing and impact of these measures.
CRH's financial performance showed signs of weakening in 2008 as a result of worsening global economic conditions during H208. In 2008, revenue declined 0.5%, compared to 2007, to EUR20.9bn. FY08 EBITDAR totalled EUR3.0bn (EUR3.1bn in 2007) and CRH's EBITDAR margin declined to 14.0% from 14.7%. At FYE08, adjusted net debt totalled EUR8bn, up from EUR6.8bn at FYE07, due to lower cash flow from operations and despite management's decision to limit acquisition spending during H208.
Net leverage metrics deteriorated, with FYE08 rental lease-adjusted net debt/operating EBITDAR at 2.7x (2.2x at FYE07), excluding non-recourse debt. Fitch views CRH's liquidity position as satisfactory for its ratings, which is supported by the agency's expectation that CRH will continue to generate FCF in 2009, unrestricted cash of EUR837m at FYE08 (EUR1.2bn at FYE07), and EUR1.6bn (EUR1.6bn in 2007) in undrawn committed facilities with an average maturity of 1.9 years.
This would imply an expected total liquidity of over EUR3bn against EUR1bn of debt maturing in 2009. Furthermore, of the total EUR1.2bn capital increase announced in March 2009, EUR500m has been earmarked for early repayment of loans, resulting in a further enhancement of financial flexibility. CRH accessed the debt capital markets twice in 2008 with a GBP250m 7-year bond and a USD650m 10-year bond. The agency expects CRH to continue to seek refinancing through opportunistic access to the debt capital market
... diversificare fra i comparti e gli emittenti aiuta... ma tu queste cose le sai già...