DNDN un titolo per chi ha le coronarie forti

osinod

Banned
bene credo che sia in una conformazione tecnica molto interessante il titolo che in attesa dell' approvazione della fda per il vaccino anticancro alla prostata è passato in pochi mesi dai 4$ ai 24$

dopo la richiesta di ulteriori chiarimenti della fda sul vaccino

oggi quota 7,7$ è credo sia molto interessante
1183580306dndn.png
 
Average Volume (3 month)3: 21,380,200
Average Volume (10 day)3: 8,043,280
Shares Outstanding6: 83.51M
Float: 82.40M
% Held by Insiders4: 0.98%
% Held by Institutions4: 30.70%
Shares Short (as of 12-Jun-07)3: 40.85M
Short Ratio (as of 12-Jun-07)3: 1.7
Short % of Float (as of 12-Jun-07)3: 49.60%
Shares Short (prior month)3: 41.66M
 
NEW YORK, May 31 (Reuters) - Dendreon Corp. (DNDN.O: Quote, Profile , Research) on Thursday said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has informed it that positive interim or final survival data from an ongoing trial of its Provenge cancer vaccine would satisfy the agency's earlier request for additional information on effectiveness of the product.

"We anticipate completing enrollment in the ... study this year and anticipate interim survival results in 2008," Dendreon said in a release. Provenge is a so-called therapeutic vaccine against prostate cancer, meaning it is meant to stimulate the immune system to fight existing tumors.

The FDA in March requested additional clinical data to prove effectiveness of Provenge. The FDA in January accepted the company's marketing application for the vaccine on a "fast-track" basis, based on a late-stage trial that showed it prolonged survival among patients whose prostate cancer had spread to other parts of the body.
 
Here is a copy of today's Michael Murphy Investment newsletter.
He is still strong on DNDN. He also pulls no punches in regards to the FDA, Politics, Shorts and FUD.



Biotech MegaShift

Dendreon (DNDN) jumped sharply today when the company announced exactly what I told you they would. With the huge short interest, though, I am not surprised that there is so much FUD (Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt) circulating about this company. I told you that the current clinical trial is under a Special Protocol Assessment with the FDA, and that Provenge will get approval if it shows a statistically significant survival benefit at either the interim peek at the data around April 2008 or the final data due in 2010. I also told you that the company has powered the interim peek for approval -- that means there will be enough patient data to meet the 95% statistical significance level if Provenge works as well in this trial as it did in the prior two.

Here's a typical negative response from Jonathan Aschoff, an analyst with Brean Murray & Co. He said that today's rally was unwarranted because the ongoing study will likely fail its primary goals, as did two earlier Phase III trials. "If this one fails, it will be the third time around" and likely doom the medicine, he said.

But what he neglected to say is the primary goal this time is survival, and the last two times it was tumor shrinkage. He also neglected to say that the two prior studies met the secondary goal of survival. I don't believe these are accidental omissions, because he went on to repeat the current FUD rumor on Dendreon: The prolonged-survival data was seen in a trial whose design may have favored Provenge, by including too many sicker patients in the placebo group and not enough such patients in the group taking the vaccine.

This is almost certainly completely false, because (1) this is an old trick that the FDA caught on to more than 20 years ago, and (2) Dendreon hired numerous ex-FDA examiners to hammer on the application during the rolling filing process, looking for any weakness, and stacking the deck with sick patients is elementary school stuff.

Pierre asked: "I have read with interest that any drug must meet the FDA's standard of 95% certainty that any positive results claimed for its use are not due to chance. What was Dendreon's score and can you comment on Richard Miller's (president and CEO of Pharmacyclics and adjunct professor of oncology at Stanford University Medical Center) piece that appeared in the Wall Street Journal of May 10?"

Dendreon hit 95% certainty on their secondary endpoint of survival. I talked about Richard Miller's similar turndown in the April 19 Radar Report, and I agree with him completely that the FDA must change its method of dealing with new biologics for terminal diseases. I go beyond his position, though -- I believe the FDA should put all its effort into insuring safety in Phase I and Phase II trials and leave efficacy decisions up to doctors and their patients. If any firm wanted FDA efficacy approval, they could voluntarily do a Phase III trial and then use FDA approval on their label.

Vic asked: "What about another company, a competitor -- could they get approval earlier? If so, the market will be occupied by them. The stock DNDN will not go up, right?"

No one else can get a prostate cancer personalized vaccine into the market before Dendreon. All of these diseases have multiple submarkets and often there is room for a cocktail of drugs to treat the problem. I am not worried about competitors, at this point. My main concern is just getting Provenge approved.

Roberto asked a series of questions: "I too smell a 'rat' with the massive shorting of DNDN and the volumes starting May 9, 2007. Please read this conspiracy- sensitive writer's article. I don't know if his figures are correct.

Yes, I saw this. There undoubtedly is naked short selling in DNDN. It is easy to hide with a complaisant market maker. In the last half of the 1980s, I had one of the largest short funds in the U.S. I know how it works, and what the shorts did was urge people like Dr. Fleming to write to the FDA. That's all it took for the bureaucrats to win over the Commissioner.

Have you or DNDN contacted Thomas Fleming PhD's about his thinking as to what constitute "more clinical data on efficacy?"

No need to, it is obvious. He wants to see the data from a trial with survival as the primary goal. That is precisely the trial that is now underway.

Hypothetically, when DNDN and FDA jointly unmask the test subjects, and Provenge-takers' incremental life span form a three-sigma normal-curve cluster that is at least four months longer than those in the normal curve fit for the longest living test subject on the placebo, will such constitute as the missing and now-FDA-required "more clinical data on efficacy?"

Yes.

If so, when will such "unmasking" take place within the chronology of the FDA Phase tests?

Next April or May.

Another ISSUE is the absence to-date of a Partner whose expertise is in the appropriate process control, and manufacturing. Otherwise, test results may not materialize on the larger target population.

All of the Provenge used in the trials comes from a large contract manufacturer certified by the FDA

Do you see the likes of established names line Genentech or Amgen getting involved? Is DNDN the holder of the requisite patents such that they may enjoy leverage as a valuable partner for the Big Boys?

Yes and yes. The overseas partner certainly will be a big company. DNDN will try to stay independent in the U.S., which is practical because most advanced prostate cancer patients are treated in less than 500 clinics around the country, so a relatively small sales force can cover most of the market. But DNDN does have the patents if it comes to a buyout.

Please comment on the above many bases for Dendreon's value even before you do your pencil pushing. In short, don't you think there is a possibility that the FDA's COMPLETE RESPONSE LETTER of May 9, 2007 (aka Approvable Letter) is the sugar coating around a bitter hoax that Provenge could still potentially be?

Nope.

How and what analyses have you done to rule this out?

Everything I have done on this stock and this drug has been aimed at whether it works and whether it can be approved. I was right on what the Advisory Committee would do because I was right on the science. I was wrong on what the FDA would do because I was wrong on the politics. The head of Chiron told me 25 years ago that developing drugs is not about curing patients, it is about getting FDA approval. Sadly, that hasn't changed.

In response to the delay of Provenge's approval, the company has cut 40 marketing people, or 18% of the work force, as they won't be needed for a year. DNDN remains a strong buy under $7, which I expect it to revisit as the shorts spread FUD. My target remains $40.
 
Mitchell Gold, CEO di Dendreon, ha dichiarato che vi sono ragionevoli aspettative di successo della interim analysis che potrebbero portare all'approvazione del farmaco nella seconda metà del 2008

“There is a reasonable likelihood of success at the interim analysis,” Gold said at the Sixth Annual Needham & Company Biotechnology & Medical Technology Conference in New York on Thursday. The interim results will “be reasonably powered to achieve the end point,” he said.


http://www.forbes.com/2007/06/14/de...tner=yaho otix
 
LIFE SCIENCES: BIOTECH
Prostate therapy's delay sets off a fight
Drug's believers pressure regulators
By Diedtra Henderson, Globe Staff | June 18, 2007
WASHINGTON — When federal regulators delayed approving a promising new prostate cancer therapy, patients and the drug’s advocates reacted with more than disappointment.
They took a page from the playbook of AIDS activists and took to the streets and to the Internet, mounting an unusually intense lobbying campaign to pressure8 the Food and Drug Administration to reverse its stance on Provenge, the experimental cancer drug.
Provenge’s advocates are working with lawmakers in Congress to attach an amendment to a funding bill that would make it easier for patients to get access to promising experimental drugs. They’ve held rallies in Chicago and at the Capitol. A few met with the FDA commissioner, who is one of the nation’s top prostate cancer researchers and a prostate cancer survivor.
An op-ed piece that ran in The Wall Street Journal, written by a scientist who advocates for greater patient access to drugs prior to FDA approval, decried the day the FDA made its Provenge decision, calling it Black Wednesday.
Blogs and websites are uniting disappointed cancer patients and disillusioned investors who put money on Seattle-based Dendreon Corp.’s Provenge, believing it could rally the body’s immune system to combat cancer.
Some, however, question whether some Provenge advocates are too aggressive. Some patient advocates say the FDA should be guided only by science.
‘‘Do people in this country really want drugs to be approved by riot?’’ asked Abx bey Meyers, president of the National Organization for Rare Disorders. ‘‘Every other patient organization is going to go down there and have a March on Washington and use political pressure to get their drug approved. That’s not what the American people want.’’
On one investors’ site, InvestorVillage, commenters questioned the motives of FDA advisers who opposed Provenge’s approval during an advisory meeting and in correspondence to the FDA.
On the MySpace page of one angry Dendreon investor, titled Approve Provenge Now, Mozart’s Requiem plays in honor of men who are dying, while images of scientists who slowed or opposed Provenge’s approval flash on screen.
Ray Vestal, the Dendreon shareholder to whom the MySpace page belongs, said he does not see a direct tie between his page or other Provenge websites and threatening e-mails that scientists who have been skeptical of the drug reported receiving.
‘‘These are intelligent people asking why,’’ Vestal said of the people posting the Provenge-related messages he has read. ‘‘These don’t seem to be radical people who seem to have some hostile agenda.’’
Still, the tactics of a few Provenge advocates are dividing patient advocates. The push for speedier Provenge approval comes as the FDA faces heightened scrutiny for its handling of such therapies as the diabetes drug Avandia and the painkiller Vioxx, both linked to heart attacks years after approval.Continued

Page 2 of 2 --
Dr. Howard I. Scher, a Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center researcher whose image is featured on Vestal’s 8MySpace page and who was pilloried on the InvestorVillage website, received additional security during a recent cancer conference after receiving e-mails from Provenge supporters that he considered threatening.
Paul Goldberg, editor of The Cancer Letter, a weekly newsletter that reprinted letters from Scher and other Provenge skeptics, received a spate of irate e-mail messages, including one that said: ‘‘I hope the entire male staff at the Cancer Letter is diagnosed with Prostate Cancer.’’
Another Provenge supporter told him about her idea to create ‘‘hit squads,’’ people assigned to chat up FDA advisers during meeting breaks, Goldberg said.
‘‘The idea of a ‘hit squad’ is really unpleasant,’’ he said. ‘‘The idea of a committee member getting threats, being approached on the way to the restroom, at coffee breaks — this is about science.
‘‘Or it should be about science. That’s how patient interests are protected.’’
And Adam Feuerstein, a senior writer for TheStreet.com, received at least 100 e-mails, some of them anti-Semitic, after writing about Provenge and suggesting that investors ‘‘ditch Dendreon’’ stock.
Why is one stalled drug approval inciting such passions?
Thomas A. Farrington, a Boston prostate cancer survivor whose father and both grandfathers succumbed to the disease, says patients’ passion is driven by the ‘‘ugly’’ disease and the tantalizing promise of Provenge.
Prostate cancer is the second-most-common cancer among US men, surpassed in prevalence only by lung cancer. This year, 218,890 American men will be newly diagnosed with prostate cancer, according to the National Institutes of Health, and 27,050 will die.
African-American men face disproportionately higher death rates. Men who survive prostate cancer may face ‘‘chemical castration’’ from the treatment, Farrington said. Provenge appears to be ‘‘a treatment that allowed men to retain their quality of life without the side effects of chemotherapy. There was tremendous hope.’’
Farrington created a different website, ProvengeNow.org, and is working with sympathetic members of the House of Representatives to amend an FDA bill to speed patients’ access to Provenge.
Dendreon is among the drug industry sponsors that have provided funding for a patient advocacy group that Farrington founded.
Farrington doubts the ‘‘unfortunate’’ e-mails were sent by cancer patients.
‘‘Terminally ill men ..... are no threat to them. They’re not going to get out of their beds to threaten two doctors,’’ he said.
But others say the fact that the Web was the crucible for Provenge-related advocacy made such clashes inevitable.
Online communities can be rough-and-tumble places populated by people known only by screen names, inspiring freedom and recklessness, said the TheStreet.com’s Feuerstein.
‘‘You get a lot of hate mail,’’ he said. ‘‘It just rolls off my back.’’
Diedtra Henderson can be reached at
 
Mike Huckman on Fast Money: Tue July 3 Transcript
Fast Money
Tue July 3 2007

Word on the Street
Guest: Mike Huckman

Dylan Ratigan: Moving to your next subject, Dendreon. Where do we stand?

Mike: Love to talk about this story. So what happened today, you guys, is there's this study done by researchers at the National Cancer Institute. These are some of the country's LEADING cancer researchers. They published this review, or analysis, in the American Association of Cancer Research Journal basically saying that the FDA and scientists have to change the way they look at clinical trials for theraputic cancer vaccines, which is what Dendreon has in its prostate cancer vaccine called Provenge. And these researchers say that these drugs appear to be extending patients' lives. And so on that news that I reported this morning, huge volume, uh, in the stock today. It did give back about half of its gains on the day, but again, keep in mind, like 40 million shares are sold short in the stock.

Dylan: But so, is that news net positive or negative for Dendreon?

Pete Najarian: It's a MONSTER positive.

Dylan: Why?

Pete: I think they're having a hard time interpreting it right now, but if you look at the call, the options have been on fire today. Over 200,000 options traded — 170,000 were calls. Very, very active. People are looking for Dendreon to be the next stock like an, like a Emmu... Immuna... Medimune (sp) to be taken out.

Mike: What are you doing with this?

Guy Adami: Well, this is what... this has become a lottery ticket. It's either going to zero, as you know, or 30 dollars, and you know what? As a risk-reward, it's not that terrible right now, especially with the shortage as he mentioned.

Mike: Najarian, what are you doing with it now?

Pete: I own the, I own the call options. I think it's a very cheap lottery ticket. You can buy the 7-and-a-halfs to 10 calls for 30 cents on the 10 calls in August. I LOVE those things for that price. I own those personally already myself. I think potentially, if you just look at what's happened over the years with the biotech stocks, so many have been taken over. Seventy-nine companies have been taken over since 2002. We're talking about a field that's NOT dying right now. There's little biotechs are still available out there.

Dylan: Go ahead.

Mike: Yeah, so Dendreon is still looking for a rest-of-world partner on this drug Provenge, but we also saw a small move in Cell Genesys today, kind of brought up by the Dendreon news because it also has a late-stage prostate cancer theraputic vaccine that it's working on. The ticker there C-E-G-E.

Dylan: To the extent of which this news benefits Dendreon, it also benefits Cell Genesys. That's the interpretation, correct?

Mike: And a basket full of micro-cap biotechs, as well, that are working on theraputic cancer vaccines.

Dylan: Mike, a pleasure. Happy July 4th to you.

Mike: Same to you.

Dylan: All right, that's the Word on the Street. More Fast Money coming up after this.
 
ovvio dalle news postate sopra che su' questo titolo in america c'è attesa grandissima

se' dovesse approvare il farmaco la fda pero' questi si pronuncera' solo meta 2008

il titolo andra' a 40$

altrimenti potrebbe ritornare a 3$

comunque per i tanti i morti che essa provoca vi sono pressioni enormi sulla fda per accelerare i tempi

poi vi è lo short altissimo al 50%
 
farei cosi stop preinserito al momento del buy a 6,28$


mi rendo conto è uno stop inserito a quasi -20%

ma il titolo è volatile questo è il rischio da tenere presente se' si è interessati

il tp è molto ambizioso la chiusura del gap a 16,7$ circa



fate vobis :p :p :p
 
Dendreon Rises On Cancer Report
Evelyn M. Rusli, 07.03.07, 2:29 PM ET

Dendreon

Tear Sheet Chart News




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Almost any news is good news for cancer vaccine maker Dendreon these days.

Dendreon (nasdaq: DNDN - news - people ) shares surged 14% in the first hour of trading on Tuesday after the American Association for Cancer Research published an article on prostate cancer vaccines--the same class that Provenge, the biotech's leading drug, belongs to.

The article, published in the July 1 issue of the highly influential Clinical Cancer Research, questioned whether researchers were incorrectly designing human trials to test cancer vaccines.

In the past, cancer vaccines and standard therapeutics, such as chemotherapy, were tested in the same way--researchers would look for evidence that the treatment shrank tumors. Because immunotherapy drugs require more time to "kick-in," or trigger a reaction in the body's immune system, many cancer vaccines-- including Provenge--have failed the trials. However, according to the article, a review of five prostate cancer vaccine trials suggested that many of these same drugs could help patients live longer with minimal toxicity. Their focus: to keep cancer patients alive, and build their immune systems, not just shrink tumors.

"Clinical data are providing evidence that patients are living longer following vaccination, despite the fact that trials do not show the vaccines can induce the immune system into shrinking tumors," the article's author, Dr. Jeffrey Schlom said. " The data suggests that the scientific community and regulatory committees ought to rethink the design of clinical vaccine trials."

Dendreon (nasdaq: DNDN - news - people ) has sharply risen and fallen on the back of Provenge, which was initially recommended for approval by a Food and Drug Administration advisory committee but ultimately denied immediate approval in May. (See: "FDA Delay Rocks Dendreon." ) Like other cancer vaccines, Provenge failed to decrease the size of tumors, which was the primary goal of the late stage study, but it did improve survival rates among patients.

The article, which cast cancer vaccine drugs in a positive light, boosted Dendreon's stock on Tuesday.

After Dendreon's initial 14% climb, shares settled to a more modest 6.5% gain, or 47 cents, to $7.70. However, even though the article ruminated on the promise of cancer vaccines, there was very little substance to justify the knee-jerk jump in Dendreon's stock.

"This is in no way an endorsement or lack of endorsement for Dendreon," Dr. Schlom told Forbes.com on Tuesday. Schlom's dominant thesis, that researchers should reconsider their "current approach to measuring the effectiveness of a cancer vaccine," and perhaps focus on survival instead of whether tumors are reduced, will have little bearing on Dendreon's Provenge.

Dendreon has already set survival as the primary goal for Provenge's latest human trial. In order to win an FDA approval, Dendreon will have to submit positive results at the trial's interim point, expected in 2008, or at the conclusion of the trial in 2010.
 

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