Fondi Obbligazionari Paesi Emergenti

risparmier

risparmier

Forumer storico
 
Ultima modifica:
20 ottobre 2014

Il commento di Damien Buchet, Responsabile mercati obbligazionari emergenti di AXA IM

-Il debito dei mercati emergenti a breve scadenza appare ancora conveniente rispetto ai titoli di credito dei mercati sviluppati
-Il mercato del credito nei Paesi emergenti rispetto al mercato degli Stati Uniti e dell'Area Euro presenta uno spread più alto del 60-100%1 circa per ogni livello di rating
-Grazie alla domanda degli investitori per il segmento short duration, il patrimonio gestito del fondo AXA WF Emerging Markets Short Duration Bonds ha raggiunto il traguardo di 2,2 miliardi di dollari prima del suo secondo anniversario

Una cauta dichiarazione del Federal Open Market Committee ha confermato la politica della Federal Reserve orientata a una progressiva stretta monetaria, delineando uno scenario ancora favorevole al debito dei mercati emergenti che, nel segmento a breve termine, appare conveniente rispetto ai mercati del credito dei paesi sviluppati.

Lo spread offerto per i titoli di credito dei mercati emergenti rispetto agli Stati Uniti o all’Area Euro presenta un premio molto alto pari al 60-100% per ogni tipo di rating (da AAA a BBB, BB, B, ecc.). Nel mercato short duration, gli investitori ottengono una remunerazione più alta per il rischio di credito ma in genere per una duration più bassa, pertanto il rischio di mercato è potenzialmente inferiore.

Anche se i tassi negli Stati Uniti saliranno, fintanto che il rialzo sarà graduale e ben delineato dovrebbe continuare a favorire questa asset class ...
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FondiOnLine.it
 
FondiOnLine.it

By Simon Kennedy Dec 16, 2014 4:52 PM GMT+0100

Stephen Jen landed in Hong Kong in early January 1997 as Morgan Stanley’s newly minted exchange-rate strategist for Asia.

He was soon working around the clock when investors began targeting the region’s currency pegs, first felling Thailand’s in July. The rout spread through Asia before rocking Brazil and Russia. It led to the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management, an event that introduced the Federal Reserve-brokered bailout.

If the 48-year-old native of Taiwan, with a PhD from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, sounds a little jaded now, it’s not without some reason. He says he worries that many emerging-market analysts are too young to remember the late 1990s. Instead they learned the ropes in an era dominated by the rise of Brazil, Russia, India and China -- a supposed one-way bet to prosperity.
...

Currency Dangers

While unwilling to draw up a blacklist for now, he says exchange rates reveal emerging-market dangers. Russia’s ruble, Brazil’s real, Mexico’s peso, Turkey’s lira, the South African rand and Indonesian rupiah have all hit the skids.

The biggest causes for worry, bigger than a recession in Russia or the oil-price plunge: the slowdown in China, which has already upended commodity prices, and the likelihood U.S. growth will propel the dollar higher and suck assets out of emerging markets.

Sounding a similar alert, the Bank for International Settlements has warned an appreciating dollar could have a “profound impact” on the world economy. It estimated international banks had loaned $3.1 trillion to emerging markets by the middle of this year, mainly in dollars. Such nations had also issued international debt securities totalling $2.6 trillion, of which three-quarters was in dollars.

International Monetary Fund economists also reported this month that the frequency of sovereign debt crises is 15 percent higher at the start of a U.S. monetary tightening cycle.

“My long-standing view on EM currencies is that they could melt down because there has simply been way too much cumulative capital flows,” said Jen. “Nothing the EM economics can do will stop these potential outflows as long as the U.S. economy recovers.”

Hedge Fund Manager Who Remembers 1998 Rout Says Prepare for Pain - Bloomberg
 
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