S&P 500 Forti resistenze su SP500
- Creatore Discussione brevan
- Data di Inizio
alingtonsky
Forumer storico
July 3rd, 2012
.........
Price on Friday was clearly telling us that too many market participants were shorting equities and the Euro.
The news coming out of the European Summit is what drove prices higher according to most media outlets. However, few traders have actually taken the time to research the fact that Germany has not technically agreed to the European Stability Mechanism legislation at this point.
The German Constitutional Court has delayed the passage of the ESM legislation on the grounds that this court needs to affirm the agreement is constitutional. Several high profile politicians in Germany have allegedly filed multiple law suits surrounding the new ESM law.
Should the German Constitutional Court determine the ESM legislation is unconstitutional a referendum will go before the German people. The last thing the Eurocratic blue bloods and their banking cartel minions want is regular people actually having a say in the outcome of the Eurozone project.
Ultimately the German people do not appear to be in favor of propping up the rest of Europe in exchange for more empty promises of austerity. Furthermore, the German people recognize that they are taking on a massive risk by loaning money to insolvent banks and other Eurozone sovereigns who have not proven to be prudent with managing their current fiscal conditions.
The decision made by the German high court could have a far-reaching impact on the price action in European financial markets as well as in U.S. domestic financial markets. The outcome of the forthcoming decision will carry far more weight than Friday’s June unemployment report. Already I am reading that should the unemployment number come in significantly weaker than expected Ben Bernanke may work to convert Operation Twist into full blown QE III at the next FOMC Meeting.
The addiction to cheap money by large institutional banks will not end until the Fed is no longer able or willing to continue to print money. Should economic data continue to weaken going into earnings season I am sure the banter regarding QE III will increase at lightning pace and bad news for the economy will be good news for stocks. Poor economic data will increase the likelihood for additional liquidity being provided through a 3rd Quantitative Easing initiative.
Leaving the macroeconomic data aside and focusing on market technicals, we find several unsettling situations in a variety of underlying assets and indicators. The warnings are largely falling on deaf ears as the equity bull parade continues. Before we talk about the S&P 500Index directly, perhaps we should examine some of the indicators and underlying assets that are sending out bearish smoke signals.
The first chart I would draw your attention to is the McClellan Oscillator which is a widely followed and focuses on market breadth as a possible market indicator for tops and bottoms. Note the key high and low points of the Oscillator and how they correspond with the S&P 500 Index.
Clearly the McClellan Oscillator is worthy of considering when looking at the S&P 500 Index. As can be seen above, when prices spike into the overbought and oversold zones a major turning point generally is drawing near in the price action. Obviously the current price action in the oscillator is reaching into the extreme overbought zone and looks poised to challenge the highest high over the past 2 years potentially.
In addition to the McClellan Oscillator, another indicator that I look at from time to time also helps to identify key market bottoms. Essentially this indicator measures the NYSE advancing volume versus declining volume. (Note: The opposite ratio will help define key highs) What is important to point out in the chart below is that we did not see major accumulation on Friday compared to data during the past year.
............
Why The S&P 500 Index Could Be Closing In On A Market Top (NYSEARCA
PY, NYSEARCAPXU, NYSEARCAH, NYSEARCADS, INDEXSP:.INX) | ETF DAILY NEWS
Bing Translator
.........
Price on Friday was clearly telling us that too many market participants were shorting equities and the Euro.
The news coming out of the European Summit is what drove prices higher according to most media outlets. However, few traders have actually taken the time to research the fact that Germany has not technically agreed to the European Stability Mechanism legislation at this point.
The German Constitutional Court has delayed the passage of the ESM legislation on the grounds that this court needs to affirm the agreement is constitutional. Several high profile politicians in Germany have allegedly filed multiple law suits surrounding the new ESM law.
Should the German Constitutional Court determine the ESM legislation is unconstitutional a referendum will go before the German people. The last thing the Eurocratic blue bloods and their banking cartel minions want is regular people actually having a say in the outcome of the Eurozone project.
Ultimately the German people do not appear to be in favor of propping up the rest of Europe in exchange for more empty promises of austerity. Furthermore, the German people recognize that they are taking on a massive risk by loaning money to insolvent banks and other Eurozone sovereigns who have not proven to be prudent with managing their current fiscal conditions.
The decision made by the German high court could have a far-reaching impact on the price action in European financial markets as well as in U.S. domestic financial markets. The outcome of the forthcoming decision will carry far more weight than Friday’s June unemployment report. Already I am reading that should the unemployment number come in significantly weaker than expected Ben Bernanke may work to convert Operation Twist into full blown QE III at the next FOMC Meeting.
The addiction to cheap money by large institutional banks will not end until the Fed is no longer able or willing to continue to print money. Should economic data continue to weaken going into earnings season I am sure the banter regarding QE III will increase at lightning pace and bad news for the economy will be good news for stocks. Poor economic data will increase the likelihood for additional liquidity being provided through a 3rd Quantitative Easing initiative.
Leaving the macroeconomic data aside and focusing on market technicals, we find several unsettling situations in a variety of underlying assets and indicators. The warnings are largely falling on deaf ears as the equity bull parade continues. Before we talk about the S&P 500Index directly, perhaps we should examine some of the indicators and underlying assets that are sending out bearish smoke signals.
The first chart I would draw your attention to is the McClellan Oscillator which is a widely followed and focuses on market breadth as a possible market indicator for tops and bottoms. Note the key high and low points of the Oscillator and how they correspond with the S&P 500 Index.
Clearly the McClellan Oscillator is worthy of considering when looking at the S&P 500 Index. As can be seen above, when prices spike into the overbought and oversold zones a major turning point generally is drawing near in the price action. Obviously the current price action in the oscillator is reaching into the extreme overbought zone and looks poised to challenge the highest high over the past 2 years potentially.
In addition to the McClellan Oscillator, another indicator that I look at from time to time also helps to identify key market bottoms. Essentially this indicator measures the NYSE advancing volume versus declining volume. (Note: The opposite ratio will help define key highs) What is important to point out in the chart below is that we did not see major accumulation on Friday compared to data during the past year.
............
Why The S&P 500 Index Could Be Closing In On A Market Top (NYSEARCA
PY, NYSEARCAPXU, NYSEARCAH, NYSEARCADS, INDEXSP:.INX) | ETF DAILY NEWSBing Translator
Allegati
alingtonsky
Forumer storico
Lo Strategist di Bank of America, Subramanian ha abbassato il target 2016 dell' indice S&P500 a 2000.
Oliver Renick
February 12, 2016 — 8:54 PM CET
The firm’s research team is the latest on Wall Street to lower expectations for the U.S. stock market in 2016, after one of the worst starts to a year on record wiped out more than $2 trillion in value. The bank now expects the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to end the year at 2,000. The gauge rose 1.7 percent to 1,859.28 at 2:30 p.m. in New York, trimming its decline in 2016 to 9 percent.
While the bank’s new target implies a 7.7 percent advance from the current level, it’s 9 percent lower than the prior target of 2,200. It also implies that the gauge will fall for two consecutive years for the first time since the dot-com era.
“Unless we see signs of a growth recovery, there may be significant near-term downside to current levels,” the group, led by Savita Subramanian, wrote in a note to clients Friday. “The S&P 500’s move this year has been extreme, worsened by the dearth of liquidity in financial markets amid the tightest regulatory backdrop of our careers. This lack of liquidity could exacerbate downside risk potential.”
Wall Street strategists are losing their resolve to project big gains in the stock market as everything from China to oil and interest rates roil markets. The handful of cuts has reduced the average annual estimate, the first time that’s happened this early in a year since the Iraq war in 2003.
Subramanian is now the eighth strategist of 21 followed by Bloomberg to reduce a forecast this year. The new level leaves her as the least-bullish in the survey along with JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas. The 2,000 target is 8 percent below the median of 2,175.
Bank of America Cuts S&P 500 Estimate by 9% After 6-Week Slide - Bloomberg Business
Oliver Renick
February 12, 2016 — 8:54 PM CET
The firm’s research team is the latest on Wall Street to lower expectations for the U.S. stock market in 2016, after one of the worst starts to a year on record wiped out more than $2 trillion in value. The bank now expects the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to end the year at 2,000. The gauge rose 1.7 percent to 1,859.28 at 2:30 p.m. in New York, trimming its decline in 2016 to 9 percent.
While the bank’s new target implies a 7.7 percent advance from the current level, it’s 9 percent lower than the prior target of 2,200. It also implies that the gauge will fall for two consecutive years for the first time since the dot-com era.
“Unless we see signs of a growth recovery, there may be significant near-term downside to current levels,” the group, led by Savita Subramanian, wrote in a note to clients Friday. “The S&P 500’s move this year has been extreme, worsened by the dearth of liquidity in financial markets amid the tightest regulatory backdrop of our careers. This lack of liquidity could exacerbate downside risk potential.”
Wall Street strategists are losing their resolve to project big gains in the stock market as everything from China to oil and interest rates roil markets. The handful of cuts has reduced the average annual estimate, the first time that’s happened this early in a year since the Iraq war in 2003.
Subramanian is now the eighth strategist of 21 followed by Bloomberg to reduce a forecast this year. The new level leaves her as the least-bullish in the survey along with JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas. The 2,000 target is 8 percent below the median of 2,175.
Bank of America Cuts S&P 500 Estimate by 9% After 6-Week Slide - Bloomberg Business