Indici Italia L'angolo dei gufi.........astenersi "perditempo", solo per gli orsetti....

[MM(mistermib)]

come da titolo, diamo inzio a questo 3d di "sciagure".........portate i vostri contributi......io non so da che parte iniziare, parecchia carne al fuoco!!!

The Volume, As Always, Speaks Volumes



this point there is little one can add or say. Today the marching orders were for an S&P 1,100. And we will get it. One way or another.

 

[MM(mistermib)]

It seems everyone is perplexed by the most recent irrational bout of July market action. Like clockwork, once July rolls in, the market surges, no questions asked. This year, the ramp is particularly blatant because as the attached chart demonstrates, bonds, which are a far more credible barometer of market (in)sanity, indicate the S&P is rich by at about 50 points. As this spread will most certainly converge eventually as we discussed previously, a short stock, short bond position would generate some much needed P&L in this world of deranged fractal algorithms. As to what may have caused the most recent bout of irrational exuberance, David Rosenberg has the most logical, and generic solution: excess liquidity and a short covering spree, and "nothing fundamental here."

From Breakfast with Dave
WHAT’S DRIVING THE MARKET?
We’ve been asked repeatedly how the stock market has managed to bounce off the nearby lows with such veracity. Especially with the ongoing weakness we have seen in the incoming U.S. economic data due to the fact that the retail investor still refuses to participate and is solely focused on income-generating strategies. The answer is that the market may have been on the receiving end of another few jolts of liquidity. M2 money supply has expanded $38.5 million in the past two weeks and the M1 money multiple has risen from 0.839 to 0.862.
When we go to the weekly data from the Fed, we see that “trading assets” on commercial bank balance sheets expanded to $325 billion in the past two weeks from $297 billion. And, when we go to the Commitment of Traders report, we see that there has been a big swing in the net speculation position on the S&P 500 “E-minis” on the Mercantile Exchange (futures and options) to a net long position of 28,172 contracts from 15,155 net shorts just two weeks ago. That’s a big part of the bounce-back — prop traders and short-coverings. Nothing fundamental here, as far as we can see.
JUST CALL IT A WHOLE LOT OF VOLATILITY

• Last week’s 5.4% increase was the best performance since mid-July 2009 (week of July 17th). But yet, prior to last week, the S&P 500 saw the largest decline (-5% during the week of July 2nd) in eight weeks, and it was down two-weeks to boot (July 2nd and June 25th weeks).

• Last week also saw three days of positive performance, a streak we last saw in mid-April of this year. However, prior to those three positive sessions, the S&P 500 was down five trading days in a row.

• Last week’s increase also comes in the heels of declines in June and May, which was the worst back-to-back decline since January and February 2009

• In Q2, we saw the worst quarter (-12%) since Q4 2008 and before that, Q3 2002. In fact, going back to 1946, a decline in the quarter of 12% or more is only a 1 in 20 event (we have only seen 12 quarters of 12%+ declines in the past 64 years).

• For the first half of the year, we have seen three up months (February, March, April) and three down months (January, May, June).

• The 80% increase in the stock market that we saw from March 2009 to April 2010 is the largest increase in such a short period of time since the period of May 1935 to April 1936.

4.916665





good news out there which justifies putting money anywhere other than the mattress.

 

[MM(mistermib)]

Baltic Dry Index Posts 33rd Consecutive Decline, Down 2.7% to 1,790





The CSX earnings surge can be easily explained now that the rail company has cornered the China-US transportation corridor (what's that, it's an ocean? that's ok - the president will enact a law changing that). Because goods transit sure isn't using the dry bulk shipping sector, where the Baltic Dry has plumbed to a fresh 14 month low, continuing its longest drop in 9 years, down for a 33rd sequential day to 1,790 from 1,840. Don't look for any record numbers out of the China Customs agency or the US trade deficit in the next month.

 

[geronimo]

Baltic Dry Index Posts 33rd Consecutive Decline, Down 2.7% to 1,790





The CSX earnings surge can be easily explained now that the rail company has cornered the China-US transportation corridor (what's that, it's an ocean? that's ok - the president will enact a law changing that). Because goods transit sure isn't using the dry bulk shipping sector, where the Baltic Dry has plumbed to a fresh 14 month low, continuing its longest drop in 9 years, down for a 33rd sequential day to 1,790 from 1,840. Don't look for any record numbers out of the China Customs agency or the US trade deficit in the next month.

l'1 come prima cifra del nostro indice non si vedra' mai piu'

 

[MM(mistermib)]

China Has Been Covertly Funding A Housing Bubble Five Times Larger Than That Of The US: 65 Million Vacant Homes Uncovered




China just announced that its Q2 GDP came in at 10.3%, just below a consensus estimate of 10.5%. Surprisingly, for some odd reason the market seems to believe this "data." Although in retrospect, based on China's bottom up GDP goalseeking, the number, which we will show in a second is completely irrelevant, could very easily be true, based on two just announced stunners about the Chinese economy. The first comes from Fitch, which in a report released today titled Informal Securitisation Increasingly Distorting Credit Data, uncovers that China has in fact been massively underrepresenting the actual amount of new loans in the first half of 2010, courtesy of precisely the kinds of securitization deals that blew up half of our own banking system: "Adjusted for informal securitisation activity, Fitch estimates that the net amount of new CNY loans extended in H110 was closer to CNY5.9trn, or 28% above the official figure of CNY4.6trn...on a flow basis the volume of credit being shifted off balance sheets in recent times has been large and rising. Activity also is largely concentrated among just a few dozen banks, and institution?specific exposure is often much higher." And some are wondering why China's AgBank was scrambling to raise $20 billion via a hurried IPO... Yet this data pales in comparison with disclosure from a recent article in South China Morning Post, in which an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences noted estimates from electricity meter readings that there are about 64.5 million empty apartments and houses in urban areas of the country! This number is five times largerthan the roughly 12 million in total US public (3.89 million) and shadow (8 million as estimated by Morgan Stanley) home inventory available currently. Forget Stephen Roach - China is covertly funding and creating a housing bubble that is at least 5 times as big as that of the United States. We leave it up to you to imagine the consequences of that particular bubble's bursting...
The Fitch report is pretty self-explanatory (presented below) but here is a section that highlights that China's banks are increasingly becoming more opaque in data presentation, which one can assume is due to their unwillingness to reveal the true state of affairs. Of course the same tactic worked very well for our own subprime sector... until virtually every company in the space went bankrupt in the span of 3 weeks in 2007.

Already Weak Disclosure is Getting Even Worse

Data on the sale and re-packaging of loans into CWMPs has always been sparse, but, historically, observers have been able to track activity by the number of CWMPs issued each month using information collected by small third-party data providers. However, as public scrutiny of informal securitisation has risen, Fitch has observed a noticeable worsening of Chinese banks’ already poor disclosure of this activity.

Some banks very actively engaged in transactions last year are showing up in 2010 data as minimally involved, yet the bank’s own salespeople (responding to Fitch’s enquiries) state that business remains as strong as ever. Meanwhile, private placements of products to institutional investors are becoming more commonplace, most of which are never disclosed to any entity but the CBRC. Because of this worsening in disclosure, data from third-party providers is capturing less and less transaction flow, with as much as 40% of deals in H110 going uncaptured, versus less than 10% prior to end?2009.
​

As for actual issuance metrics, as Fitch says, the "volume of credit being re?packaged on the rise."

Data on the number of outstanding CWMPs and CTPs shows net issuance accelerating in H209 as credit conditions tightened, followed by a flattening out in H110 (Chart 3). While the recent moderation in part reflects the looser credit environment in H110, the significant worsening in disclosure in 2010 also has been a major factor distorting recent data. Indeed, when historical figures are adjusted to strip out the entity that most conspicuously dropped out of issuance figures in 2010, net product issuance swings from −7% to +1% in H110.

​

There is much more in the full report, presented below.
Yet the real shocker of the day comes from the following article in the South China Morning Post, presented below in its entirety, and without comments. None are needed.

64.5 million mainland houses lying vacant: economist

Mainland’s property market remains dangerously overheated and failing to tame the speculative bubble could threaten financial and social stability, a prominent economist said in an official newspaper on Friday.

Yi Xianrong, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank in Beijing, noted estimates from electricity meter readings that there are about 64.5 million empty apartments and houses in urban areas of the country, many of them bought up by people wagering on a constantly rising property market.

In the overseas edition of the People’s Daily, Yi said the ”shocking” level of empty housing showed the dangers brought by the country’s property boom, which the central government has been trying to cool.

“If this outsized property bubble does not burst, it will hurt residents’ well-being, and also affect national financial security and co-ordinated national economic development,” wrote Yi.

He wrote that the overheated property market was creating ”misallocation of resources, price distortions, squandering of wealth … and is magnifying national financial risks, so that the economic structure cannot be adjusted, ultimately leading to overall social instability.”

The People’s Daily’s overseas edition is a small-circulation offshoot that tends to be more forthright than the main, domestic edition. While the paper is not an unerring mirror of official policy, Yi’s commentary suggests that the real estate market remains a worry for policy-makers.

Beijing announced a slew of measures in past months to cool the property market, including raising down-payments and mortgage rates, and that has already caused deal volumes to drop and property inflation to slow in many cities.

Nationwide, property prices rose 0.2 per cent in May from a month earlier, and were 12.4 per cent higher than a year earlier. The increases were smaller than in April.

Property prices will fall within a few months as government steps to cool the real estate market bite deeper, Xu Shaoshi, the minister of land and resources, said on Sunday.

Yi suggested that more robust steps are needed to beat back property price rises fuelled by speculation.

“The problem now is that investment in the domestic property market has completely overturned China’s traditional concepts of wealth management and investment and its price formation system,” he wrote.
​

 

[giambel]

Quando il gatto della macroeconomia, manca i topi solitamente sulla plancia della nave tendono a ballare e di topi nei mercati finanziari ve ne sono in abbondanza, topi estremamente tecnici che amano spostare la verità figlia del tempo, ignorando la realtà fondamentale, rimbalzando .....come gatti morti.
Mercati estremamente sopravvalutati dal punto di vista fondamentale che ormai sono rapiti dalle note del breve termine, catturati in un continuo saliscendi di euforie e depressioni. Qualcuno sta sussurrando che il pessimismo era agli estremi e che quindi, come la storia insegna, se tutti sono sullo stesso lato della barca, prima o poi si capovolge.
Ormai per le vie delle bettole dei porti finanziari, gli analisti hanno perduto di vista l'antica saggezza fondamentale per comprendere l'equilibrio il valore tra il prezzo e gli utili attesi, difficilmente si guardano agli utili operativi, anche perchè come la storia insegna, le previsioni sono spesso e volentieri assogettate a conflitti di interesse o ondate umorali. Qualcuno continua a chidermi per quale motivo non evidenzio gli aspetti positivi che sostengono i mercati, ma in tutta sincerità, dal punto di vista fondamentale, a parte qualche rattoppo di breve termine, faccio fatica ad osservare dinamiche coinvolgenti, senza stare a ripetere quello che scrivo ormai da mesi.
Certo qualcuno mi ha suggerito che manca l'inversione nella curva dei rendimenti, ma questi sono tempi inediti, i tassi resteranno a lungo compressi a zero nella parte a breve della curva, difficile convincere le banche, con il loro profondo deficit patrimoniale a lasciare la tranquilla spiaggia delle riserve bancarie per concedere credito ad alto rischio.
Certo per molti l'economia vivrà solo un tenero rallentamento, nessuna doppia recessione in arrivo, anche perchè come sostengo da tempo visti i redditi e il lavoro da questa recessione non siamo quasi mai usciti.
Il pifferaio Bernanke ci dice che riavviare il circolo untuoso del credito è fondamentale, si perchè senza credito, senza debito, non c'è più trippa per gatti. In fondo è difficile per chi ha sbagliato la diagnosi della grande crisi, essere sia in grado di andare oltre il breve termine, proponendo sempre e solo le vecchie ricette che ci hanno portato al fallimento.
Il fantasma della deflazione, quello è il suo unico pensiero, probabilmente il suo incubo e quello del suo mentore, Greenspan anch'esso capace di suonare solo la musica dei mercati azionari o soffiare nel piffero decine, decine di bolle, bolle nelle quali milioni di topi sono affogati nelle loro illusioni.
Paul Krugman ed ora anche un insospettabile conservatore come John Makin in AEI - The Rising Threat of Deflationvedono aumentare i rischi della deflazione, al di la delle illusioni inflazionistiche e della spirale di decesso economico che la Federal Reserve teme più di qualsiasi cosa.
Oppure come dice Myke Bryan, vice presidente della Fed di Atlanta, siamo, forse più vicini alla deflazione di quanto si pensava. Dando un'occhiata ad alcuni studi sulla potenziale discordanza tra la realtà e il dato relativo all'inflazione che secondo la Fed di Cleveland ormai si sta avvicinando al livello zero, Clevelandfed.org si nota come la tendenza è delineata oltre le distorsioni statistiche.
Inoltre per coloro che hanno realmente voglia di approffondire per comprendere per quale motivo da ormai quasi due anni vado sostenendo che non abbiamo al momento alcuna alternativa alla deflazione di memoria giapponese, sia nella dinamica economica, sia come trappola della liquidità associata ad un imponente deleveraging delle economie occidentali, date un'occhiata a questo capolavoro della

oisington Investment Management Company nel loro Quarterly Review and Outlook Second Quarter 2010 che troverete QUI .

In sintesi un deficit fuori controllo, l'ipotesi di un futuro aumento delle tasse, un massiccio sovraindebitamento generale e la trappola della liquidità in cui siamo, sono unitamente all'inversione generale degli aggregati monetari sinonimo della deflazione che verrà.
Comprendo la frenesia del breve termine, comprendo anche l'esaltazione che questa musica soave procura, ma si tratta per l'ennesima volta di comprendere la realtà lasciando gli altri a giocare al gatto e al topo, di andare " Oltre le illusioni di breve termine" ,post dedicato ai sostenitori di Icebergfinanza e a coloro che vorranno sostenerlo, che spiega nei particolari la tendenza fondamentale, perchè i mercato sono ESTREMAMENTE sopravvalutati al di la dei soliti pifferai magici.
Per chi vuole approffondire consiglio la lettura di questo notevole pezzo di William Hester, Wall Street Earnings Expectations Ignore Economic Divergences , gli altri continuino a seguira la musica.
Certo le stive delle corporate americane sono stracariche di cash, 1800 miliardi come sembra sussurrare la Federal Reserve, ma gli investimenti con cavolo che li fanno in un ambiente di sovraccapacità produttiva da far tremare la storia.

Thanks to FinancialTimes.com​

Inoltre vai tu a spiegarglielo che il cash aumenta anche grazie alla generosa opera di taglio dei costi che principalmente riguarda il lavoro, mentre le piccole e medie imprese sono travolte dalla recessione in atto, piccole e medie imprese che come più volte ricordato, costituiscono mediamente il 70 % della produzione di nuovi posti di lavoro in America come in Italia. Come ha scritto recentemente il Wall Street Journal, siamo passati da una percentuale del 35 % di aziende ottimiste al 29 % di giugno mentre oltre il 50 % non vede nulla di buono all'orizzonte, anzi sostiene che il ciclo torna a peggiorare, ma si sa questo è il piffero dell'economia reale, quello di carta funziona meglio.
L' associazione nazionale delle piccole e medie imprese americane, NFIB, ci dice che in giugno il loro ottimismo è nuovamente sceso, per la prima volta dopo anemici rialzi nei precedenti mesi, sotto un livello che rappresenta un'economia estremamente debole impantanata in un recessione dalla quale non è mai uscita.
Mediamente solo l'1 % delle imprese ha intenzione di assumere nei prossimi mesi, di investimenti in conto capitale neanche a parlarne senza una serie ripresa dei consumi.
Come sottolinea William Dunkelberg, il loro capo economista, le imprese hanno continuato a liquidare i magazzini e la debole dinamica delle vendite suggerisce che non vi sia nessuna intenzione di ricostituirle, quindi ulteriore conferma della fine della favola delle scorte. Tra le dinamiche segnalate un diffuso calo dei prezzi.
Non importa se si parla di indice Zew o di debiti pubblici o aziendali, di disavanzi commerciali o di indici macroeconomici in evidente fase di inversione, l'indice ISM dei servizi aveva proprio una brutta cera, con l'occupazione in discesa e i prezzi collassati ribadendo quello che gli indici regionali ed altri indicatori privati come ad esempio l'ECRI sussurrano ormai da oltre un mese.
Ma si sa ormai di macroeconomia non si interessa più nessuno, l'unica musica che si sente è quella che a fasi alterne proviene dall'incantevole virtuale piffero dello "stress test" come se all'improvviso, oltre 5000 miliardi di debiti esclusivamente finanziari in scadenza nei prossimi due anni, di cui oltre la metà europei, fossero spariti insieme alla carta straccia, carta straccia su cui vengono scritte le note di questa autentica follia che il sistema detiene.
Sono curioso di osservare se la musica del pifferaio magico funziona anche questa volta, se la "solita" musica è in grado di fare uscire l'economia da un medioevo finanziario infestato di topi, sempre pronti a ballare quando il gatto, la realtà, si assenta anche solo per un istante.

 

[MM(mistermib)]

John Taylor: "Cash Is Now King, Worthless Or Not, So Buy Dollars."





In his latest must read letter, John Taylor picks up where Goldman left off a few days ago, and follows up on the implications of Keynes' savings paradox, which as explained by Goldman, and now by Taylor, has to do with the fact that with the entire world entering an austerity phase and thus cutting off public sources of capital to offset private sector contraction and deleveraging (as per the Current Account equality), the slowdown in economic growth is virtually assured. It also explains why companies are hording cash. The result is a massive schism in perceptions between micro and macro analysts: "the result is that the vast majority of the analysts that examine individual companies are bullish and almost all of the macro analysts are bearish, many like us, and dramatically so." Further adding to the dire macro picture, "because nominal GDP is growing more slowly than the outstanding national debt is compounding, it is becoming a more oppressive weight on the “non-S&P” economy, tightening the financial position of small businesses and the consumer." Which leads Taylor to this simplistic and spot on conclusion: "if consumers build up their savings, we know what happens to retail sales and the GDP. On top of this the money multiplier comes into play. With the global banking system suffering under an extremely high load of worthless assets – whether recognized or not – and being forced to improve their capital allocation for risk by the Basel II and Basel III rules, banks must cut back the amount of credit that they make available to the economy. The multiplier will force global economies to shrink in the years ahead. Cash is now king, worthless or not, so buy dollars." Brief, succinct and 100% spot on analysis.
Micro Booms, but Macro Slump
July 15, 2010
By John R. Taylor, Jr.
Chief Investment Officer

This week, the US equity market is starting its quarterly earnings ritual and the odds favor a strong performance for the closely followed investor favorites. Although the game is rigged as almost 50% of the corporate managements have adjusted their guidance in the past month trying to lower analysts’ projections down to levels that the companies know they can beat. Despite the opera buffa quality of the process, the S&P 500 companies will still produce a dramatic increase in earnings over the second quarter of 2009. The same can be said of the major European corporations. The increase in corporate earnings and the projection of further increases seems to be universal, and many argue that the positive outlook for thousands of individual companies must sum to an impressive economic recovery.
Despite these positive micro stories, they do not add up to a happy macro outcome. There are several reasons why this is the case, but the result is that the vast majority of the analysts that examine individual companies are bullish and almost all of the macro analysts are bearish, many like us, and dramatically so.
There is a very large segment of the US, Canadian, and European economies that is not part of theglobal equity system and this major fraction of the economies is not doing at all well. Even if theoptimists will retort that moaning about the depressed readings in the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) reports, the collapse in bank credit, and the sharp decline in the ECRI leading indicators are nothing but anecdotal examples, they should carry at least as much weight as the positive earnings numbers. These smaller businesses represent the lion’s share of the internal and retail economies, while the giants represent almost all of the export and global part of the economies.
The slowdown in the non-S&P sector of the economy is actually reflected in the sluggish increase in the major companies’ top-line revenue, but the tight cost controls that have allowed their reported earnings to keep climbing has exaggerated the decline hitting the independent businesses. The shrinking cost of goods at every Fortune 100 company represents the top line sales of many smaller companies and the take-home pay of thousands of employees. Because nominal GDP is growing more slowly than the outstanding national debt is compounding, it is becoming a more oppressive weight on the “non-S&P” economy, tightening the financial position of small businesses and the consumer.
The macro pessimists actually have academic research firmly on their side. Just two points must suffice here. Keynes famously noted that there was a savings paradox. As I would paraphrase it, if one family saves, it is good for the family, but if all families save, the economy will be ruined. This is happening everywhere. The S&P 500 companies are all saving, by cutting costs – and building giant worthless cash mountains (like they did in the 1930’s) – but this is shrinking nominal GDP as their saved costs are others’ lost earnings. The global economies are all trying to grow by increasing exports, which is the same as saving. If there are no countries stimulating consumption, the world economy will shrink. If all countries try to balance their fiscal books, they are clearly saving. The Eurozone, the UK, and the American states are dramatic examples of this. And if consumers build up their savings, we know what happens to retail sales and the GDP. On top of this the money multiplier comes into play. With the global banking system suffering under an extremely high load of worthless assets – whether recognized or not – and being forced to improve their capital allocation for risk by the Basel II and Basel III rules, banks must cut back the amount of credit that they make available to the economy. The multiplier will force global economies to shrink in the years ahead. Cash is now king, worthless or not, so buy dollars

 

[wildman]

Grafico storico euribor 6 mesi, non so che pensare.

 

[giambel]

Grafico storico euribor 6 mesi, non so che pensare.

si pensa alla trappola della liquidità

 

[wildman]

si pensa alla trappola della liquidità

se devo dirti la mia idea, penso che ci sarà un'altra fase di ribasso (ma non di lunga durata) per fare nuovi minimi(intorno a 15/16 mila spmib), cercheranno di far mollare tutti quelli che si sono messi long di cassetto.

Poi ripartiranno di lungo periodo.
Almeno ciò è quello che traggo confrontando il grafico del tasso di interesse con il grafico dell'indice azionario.