Natural Gas

[Fleursdumal]

lo spread V-X06 ( oct-nov ) ha fatto la sparata, sposto il trail a -1,8 e vista la posizione di vantaggio cerco di fare lo sborone alla grande

talmente alta l'adrenalina che dedico alla bestiaccia gassosa un intero threads

 

[Fleursdumal]

Oil partially recovers, but it's still primed for 6-session loss
Monday September 11, 1:32 pm ET
By Myra P. Saefong
OPEC worries about price drop as cartel stands pat on quotas

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures recovered most of their losses Monday afternoon, but still looked ready to extend its losing streak to six sessions as traders weighed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision to keep members' production quotas unchanged against the potential for an output cut at a later date, after key oil producers voiced concern over the recent drop in oil prices.


The group's production ceiling stands at 28 million barrels per day, excluding output from Iraq. OPEC set forth the quota on July 1, 2005.

"Today's announcement from OPEC may seem like good news but in actuality, with winter coming, OPEC holding steady now may mean a cut in production when we really need it this fall," said commodities trader Kevin Kerr, editor of Global Resources Trader, a newsletter of MarketWatch, the publisher of this report.

"Many analysts believe OPEC will blink at $60," Kerr said, adding that he believes that the figure is more like $65 a barrel.

"The Iran problem is far from over, as much as they would like the world to think it is," he said.

"An event of some kind will happen and drive prices right back up," Kerr said. "Traders need to be cautious."

Crude for October delivery fell as low as $64.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, marking its weakest intraday level since March 21. It's staged a partial recovery and was last down 30 cents at $65.95 a barrel, but it's still trading 13% below the $75.99 level it closed at a month ago.

Crude futures dropped more than 4% last week. The losses came as news emerged last week that Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, the biggest oil field in the U.S., is expected to resume full operations sooner than originally expected, possibly by the end of October.

Also on Nymex, October unleaded gasoline tacked on 2.59 cents to $1.635 a gallon, after tapping its lowest level since mid-February at $1.584. October heating oil stood at $1.826 a gallon, down 3.34 cents.

Comfort vs. distress
Global crude supplies "now stand comfortably above their five-year average and are more than adequate to ease concerns in the market about potential supply disruptions or worries arising from geopolitical tensions," the cartel said in a statement issued Monday at the end of its official meeting in Vienna.

Still, it acknowledged that prices have "moderated substantially in recent weeks," and reiterated that OPEC will continue its "proactive policy of supporting market stability by restoring a balance between supply and demand, at prices reasonable to both producers and consumers and conducive to continued world economic growth."

The cartel will hold a special meeting on Dec. 14 in Nigeria and reserved the right to make "necessary consultations" prior to the December meeting, "should market conditions so warrant," OPEC said.

Since OPEC's last conference on June 1, oil prices reached a record high exceeding $70 a barrel for the cartel's reference basket price, said Edmund Daukoru, Nigeria's minister of state for petroleum resources, in his opening address to the conference earlier Monday. The OPEC basket price for 11 types of crude oil stood at $62.12 on Friday.

Daukoru blamed the recent price peaks on "the outbreak of hostilities in Lebanon in the middle of July and fears of hurricanes in the U.S. Gulf closely followed by the sudden shutting-down of the Prudhoe Bay field in Alaska in the first half of August."

Prices have since "softened considerably" and the international oil market "remains well-supplied," Daukoru said.

Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago, said OPEC faces a conundrum: "Can they sit by as oil prices plunge?" Listen to interview with Flynn.

"OPEC's swagger and confidence that they could continue to keep pumping oil without fear of a price collapse may be faltering," Flynn said.

In related news Monday, energy information provider Platts reported that a survey of OPEC and industry officials on Sept. 7 showed that OPEC's crude production rose by 220,000 barrels per day in August, yielding an average output of 29.91 million barrels per day.

Excluding Iraqi output, production averaged 27.91 million barrels per day. That's up 280,000 barrels per day from the July level but below the OPEC-set quota, Platts said.

Meanwhile, on the broader political front, a senior U.S. envoy said Monday that it welcomed progress at talks aimed at ending the nuclear standoff with Iran but that the United Nations' Security Council plans to move toward sanctions if Tehran doesn't freeze uranium enrichment, the Associated Press reported.

Natural gas at two-year low
Elsewhere in energy trading, the October contract for natural-gas futures moved lower, trading at its lowest levels in more than two years on the heels of a three-session pullback last week.

October natural gas fell 7.5 cents to stand lately at $5.60 per million British thermal units following a decline to $5.44 -- the lowest intraday level the contract has seen since July 7, 2004.

"If supportive news in the form of a tropical storm threat or cold winter forecast doesn't emerge soon, prices will probably continue lower," said Michael Fitzpatrick, an analyst at Fimat USA.

In equities, benchmarks tracking stocks in the oil and gas sectors fell, with the Oil Service Index (Philadelphia:^OSX - News) suffering from the biggest decline. See Energy Stocks.

And in Monday's metals trading, gold futures dropped under $600 an ounce as silver prices traded at their weakest levels since July. See Metals Stocks.

Taking a broad measure of the commodity-futures markets, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index stood at 314.42 points, down 1.9% from the previous session. It hasn't traded at a level this low since early December 2005

 

[Fleursdumal]

pare candela d'inversione oggi

 

[ditropan]

pare candela d'inversione oggi

Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1157999119fsspon6.png

Ciao bello ! ... pare proprio di sì ... incrociamo le dita e famoce una ...

... ho scritto pure io sullo spread di là. :mano:

 

[Fleursdumal]

bravo vecio
uno spread intramarket così non c'è e mi sa che abbiamo beccato un movimento storico anche se ho potuto verificare grafici spread oct-nov solo degli ultimi dieci anni , che non è poco comunque
stamattina picco a -1,565
magari se offrono opportunità provo ad entrare a -2 sul nov-dic

 

[Fleursdumal]

ecco grafo di lungo sullo spread x-z06 , i -2 non si vedono ma nell'intraday sui mini un paio di giorni fa ci è arrivato ed è andato anche oltre

 

[gipa69]

...

 

[Fleursdumal]

grassie gipa

candela d'inversione negata, il sospetto è che su sta scadenza si chiuderà molto bassi in assenza di fattori esogeni
lo spread stava tornando indietro alla gran corsa poi si è stoppato a -1,175 ed è tornato un pò sù, manteniamo il trail a 1,18 pronti però a chiudere se ci son finestre favorevoli today

DJ US GAS: Nymex Futures Rally On Technical Buying, Then Fall

By Jeanine Prezioso
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures rallied early Tuesday on technical
buying, then fell for the fifth straight trading day amid mild weather and a
lack of tropical storms threatening U.S. Gulf Coast gas supplies.

October gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 9.6 cents
lower Tuesday at $5.574 per million British thermal units.

The biggest loser was the December contract, which has lost 15% of its gains
since last week, dropping 22.6 cents to settle at $8.884/MMBtu.

Gas for the 2006-2007 winter months settled below $10.00/MMBtu Tuesday. With
no tropical storms headed for the Gulf of Mexico to interrupt supplies and more
than enough gas in storage, futures have faced continued downward pressure,
traders and analysts said.

Analysts have been saying for months that winter-month gas futures were
overpriced and were due for a correction.

"We've been saying for a long time we think they're overvalued," said Kent
Bayazitoglu, director of analytics with Gelber and Associates in Houston. "I'm
not surprised by this."

Bayazitoglu thought Tuesday's early rally was caused by spread trading among
speculative traders. Traders were buying front-month futures and selling winter
contracts, causing front-month prices to jump while winter months fell flat, he
said. But eventually, traders started selling off October futures as well,
pushing prices lower, he said.

"At the end of the day people said, 'I don't want that short month, I'll sell
that too,'" Bayazitoglu said.

Spread trading has not moved the market to the degree it did today, with the
front-month rising while the back-months dropped, Bayazitoglu said. He chalked
it up to the record amount of spread trading that the natural gas market has
seen in recent months.

Others saw the early rally - which lasted much longer for the October and
November gas contracts than the others - as due possibly to covering of short
positions by speculative traders. A number of speculators were said to have
needed to cover their margins, which Nymex customers put up to cover their
purchases of contracts should the price move in an adverse direction.

Some traders might have needed to liquidate contracts and turn them into cash
to cover their margins, said Kyle Cooper, director of research with IAF
Advisors in Houston. Others might have needed to cover short positions, or
liquidate the contract to avoid delivery obligations.

Two tropical weather systems developing in the Atlantic were too far away to
raise concerns, traders said.

Tropical Storm Gordon, the seventh named storm this season, formed in the
Atlantic northeast of the Leeward Islands and was seen heading into open waters
east of Bermuda away from any land, the National Hurricane Center reported.

A tropical depression formed off the coast of Africa was moving west at 18
miles per hour and was seen possibly developing into a tropical storm, the NHC
reported. The potential storm's path was unknown, the NHC said.

"Most of the tropical storms seem to be heading away from us," Bayazitoglu
said. "There's not much fear for tropical storms and that's helping the market
move lower."

Meanwhile, the U.S. is heading for record levels of gas in storage, according
to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Gas stocks are at 2.976 trillion
cubic feet, 12% above the five-year average.

Barring a storm that threatens gas production in the Gulf of Mexico,
Bayazitoglu said he expected continued weakness in the gas market during the
next month.



FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex Oct $5.574 - 9.6
Nymex Nov $7.274 + 1.9
Nymex Dec $8.884 -22.6

CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
Henry Hub $5.44-$5.65 $5.10-$5.49
Transco 65 $5.55-$5.78 $5.36-$5.56
Tex East M3 $5.87-$6.07 $5.70-$5.89
Transco Z6 $5.85-$6.03 $5.65-$5.90
SoCal $5.40-$5.58 $5.21-$5.50
El Paso Perm $4.97-$5.27 $4.86-$5.15
El Paso SJ $4.95-$5.14 $4.87-$4.95
Waha $5.20-$5.39 $5.05-$5.26
Katy $5.41-$5.55 $5.25-$5.36

 

[ciciola]

Ed oggi ci sono pure i dati sulle scorte...

 

[Fleursdumal]

ciao ciciola: l'EIA gas storage è per domani , oggi l'API/EIA energy stocks