Azioni Italia -Nuovi rialzi in vista. -Ancora? -Sì. (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione superrudy
- Data di Inizio
magiel
trendisyourfriend
Ultima dritta per oggi... Come fastweb metterà il becco con close orario sopra 15,04...
Cannelli, bunsen, fiamme ossidriche... Quello che volete
la tengo guardata anche io da un pochetto..........
..........presepio2
Forumer attivo
Sp 500. In passato per attraversare quella media verde, sia la ribasso che al rialzo che è una 50 mensile, ha impiegato da cinque a sei mesi.
La parte più consistente del rialzo è orami stata fatta ma non per questo si scenderà.
Credo che i prezzi flirteranno con quella media per almeno 4-5 mesi per decidere se continuare a salire oppure una sua mancata riconquista della media verde creera le basi per un inversione di medio.
Quindi in questa fase sarà questione di stock picking.
superrudy
Beyond good and evil
Grande post presepio 
Anche io sono convinto che fino a settembre ottobre si girerà lì attorno. Intanto saliamo ancora un po' fino ai dvd, poi correggiamo un po' in estate a ritestare qualche supporto (forse a 1160), poi saliamo ancora una o due volte a consolidare... Poi a settembre si decide da che parte andare per i prossimi mesi.
PS Posti poco ma bene (48 messaggi in 9 anni...), 5 messaggi all'anno... Averne uno così interessante su questo thread è un onore, spero che posterai ancora
Anche io sono convinto che fino a settembre ottobre si girerà lì attorno. Intanto saliamo ancora un po' fino ai dvd, poi correggiamo un po' in estate a ritestare qualche supporto (forse a 1160), poi saliamo ancora una o due volte a consolidare... Poi a settembre si decide da che parte andare per i prossimi mesi.
PS Posti poco ma bene (48 messaggi in 9 anni...), 5 messaggi all'anno... Averne uno così interessante su questo thread è un onore, spero che posterai ancora
Ultima modifica:
superrudy
Beyond good and evil
Posto questo.. Io non ci capisco molto ma se Gipa o qualche esperto di macroeconomia vuole dare la sua opinione...
Seven reasons why being bullish could be the right choice...
____________________________________________________________
1. It's All About the Economy, Stupid!
Forget about a double-dip recession cutting off this rally at the knees. The latest economic data points to a recovery that is real and sustainable.
~ Take Warren Buffett's favorite indicator, for example - railroad freight traffic. It just hit its highest level since November 2008 - up 16.5% in the last week of March.
~ Restaurant activity rose to its highest level in 27 months in February, according to the National Restaurant Association.
~ The ISM Manufacturing Index touched a six-year high last month.
~ New orders for manufactured durable goods increased for the third consecutive month, too.
~ Industrial production jumped by a solid 2% in February.
~ Last month, chain store retail sales logged their best year-over-year increase since 1999.
True, the unemployment picture still stinks. But it's a lagging indicator. By the time it improves dramatically, the market will have left you in the dust.
2. The "Sesame Street" Indicator is Bullish
Oscar the Grouch loves trash! So do investors.
Case in point: The stocks that got battered and bruised the most during the market's downturn are the best-performing ones coming off the bottom. Namely, financial stocks. In fact, most are up by double the amount of the S&P 500, if not more.
Of course, this typically happens in the first leg of a bull market. Junk outperforms high-quality companies. But it's a well-documented fact that investors eventually start rotating into undervalued, steady performers.
There's plenty of history to back this theory up, too. That's exactly what happened after the early 1980s recession, the early 1990s recession and the early 2000 downturn, as well. The fact that it hasn't happened on this occasion yet, means there's plenty more upside ahead, as high-quality companies eventually take the baton.
3. Technically Speaking...
Although I favor fundamental analysis over technical analysis, that doesn't mean I ignore technicals completely. After all, we never want to fight the trend. And technicals point to this rally continuing, too.
Take the advance/decline line, for example. It basically gauges the strength of a rally by measuring how many stocks are participating in it (also referred to as the market's "breadth"). The line is currently very bullish. The last three times it's been this bullish - in 1962, 1975 and 1982 - the market kept charging higher, according to Dan Sullivan of The Chartist. All the while, investors doubted the sustainability of the move.
Then there's the common Wall Street wisdom to "never short a dull market." In other words, don't bet on a downturn just because it's been a while since we had one. The bears would like you to believe that the market is overdue for a downturn, since we've gone 27 trading days without a 1% move. Let me put their argument in perspective...
We're not even close to longest streak on record. Back in 1995, the S&P 500 went almost 100 days without a 1% move. So this "dull" market could keep heading higher for many, many more days.
4. Bring on the Buybacks
Companies are spending the lowest proportion of their money on stock buybacks in almost a decade - 28% of operating profit. At the same time, they're sitting on record amounts of cash - almost $1 trillion.
The good news is we've seen a pick-up in buyback activity in recent months. Mizuho Financial Group expects companies to double their stock repurchases this year - resulting in a total of $235 billion. We're nowhere near a top, either. In 2007, companies spent almost $600 billion on buybacks.
Remember, buying back shares reduces the number of shares available and increases earnings by share. As a result, stocks often climb higher.
Long story short... the speed of buybacks is accelerating and there's ample cash available to fuel many more. That definitely points to higher share prices ahead.
5. Stocks Are (Still) Cheap
The S&P 500 currently trades for about 15 times this year's projected earnings, based on Bloomberg Data. If companies deliver the profits they're promising, shares will need to rise in order to match the average price-to-earnings ratio of 20.6 since 1992.
Looking at this from another angle, we always tell members of The Oxford Club that share prices ultimately follow earnings. And with the average analyst in a recent Bloomberg survey calling for a 50% increase in S&P 500 earnings this year, stock prices could easily jump just as high.
6. Life Expectancy
The fact that the current bull market is now one year old is a big deal. The last 13 bull markets that lived that long ending up lasting an average of 4.4 years and returned 153%. This bull is still a baby in comparison.
7. The Herd is Clueless (Again)
We all know it's bad to follow the herd. And right now, the herd is clueless. The entire time the market's been heading higher, they've been plowing their money into bonds!
The latest data from Morningstar reveals that over 95% of the $377.4 billion flowing into mutual funds last year went into bond funds. Year-to-date money flows are similarly lopsided, with 71% going into bond funds.
Even worse, investors are withdrawing money from stocks to fund this strategy. In February, investors withdrew $3.7 billion from U.S. equity funds, the fifth outflow in six months.
So if you're selling now, you're investing right alongside the herd. Bad idea.
Seven reasons why being bullish could be the right choice...
____________________________________________________________
1. It's All About the Economy, Stupid!
Forget about a double-dip recession cutting off this rally at the knees. The latest economic data points to a recovery that is real and sustainable.
~ Take Warren Buffett's favorite indicator, for example - railroad freight traffic. It just hit its highest level since November 2008 - up 16.5% in the last week of March.
~ Restaurant activity rose to its highest level in 27 months in February, according to the National Restaurant Association.
~ The ISM Manufacturing Index touched a six-year high last month.
~ New orders for manufactured durable goods increased for the third consecutive month, too.
~ Industrial production jumped by a solid 2% in February.
~ Last month, chain store retail sales logged their best year-over-year increase since 1999.
True, the unemployment picture still stinks. But it's a lagging indicator. By the time it improves dramatically, the market will have left you in the dust.
2. The "Sesame Street" Indicator is Bullish
Oscar the Grouch loves trash! So do investors.
Case in point: The stocks that got battered and bruised the most during the market's downturn are the best-performing ones coming off the bottom. Namely, financial stocks. In fact, most are up by double the amount of the S&P 500, if not more.
Of course, this typically happens in the first leg of a bull market. Junk outperforms high-quality companies. But it's a well-documented fact that investors eventually start rotating into undervalued, steady performers.
There's plenty of history to back this theory up, too. That's exactly what happened after the early 1980s recession, the early 1990s recession and the early 2000 downturn, as well. The fact that it hasn't happened on this occasion yet, means there's plenty more upside ahead, as high-quality companies eventually take the baton.
3. Technically Speaking...
Although I favor fundamental analysis over technical analysis, that doesn't mean I ignore technicals completely. After all, we never want to fight the trend. And technicals point to this rally continuing, too.
Take the advance/decline line, for example. It basically gauges the strength of a rally by measuring how many stocks are participating in it (also referred to as the market's "breadth"). The line is currently very bullish. The last three times it's been this bullish - in 1962, 1975 and 1982 - the market kept charging higher, according to Dan Sullivan of The Chartist. All the while, investors doubted the sustainability of the move.
Then there's the common Wall Street wisdom to "never short a dull market." In other words, don't bet on a downturn just because it's been a while since we had one. The bears would like you to believe that the market is overdue for a downturn, since we've gone 27 trading days without a 1% move. Let me put their argument in perspective...
We're not even close to longest streak on record. Back in 1995, the S&P 500 went almost 100 days without a 1% move. So this "dull" market could keep heading higher for many, many more days.
4. Bring on the Buybacks
Companies are spending the lowest proportion of their money on stock buybacks in almost a decade - 28% of operating profit. At the same time, they're sitting on record amounts of cash - almost $1 trillion.
The good news is we've seen a pick-up in buyback activity in recent months. Mizuho Financial Group expects companies to double their stock repurchases this year - resulting in a total of $235 billion. We're nowhere near a top, either. In 2007, companies spent almost $600 billion on buybacks.
Remember, buying back shares reduces the number of shares available and increases earnings by share. As a result, stocks often climb higher.
Long story short... the speed of buybacks is accelerating and there's ample cash available to fuel many more. That definitely points to higher share prices ahead.
5. Stocks Are (Still) Cheap
The S&P 500 currently trades for about 15 times this year's projected earnings, based on Bloomberg Data. If companies deliver the profits they're promising, shares will need to rise in order to match the average price-to-earnings ratio of 20.6 since 1992.
Looking at this from another angle, we always tell members of The Oxford Club that share prices ultimately follow earnings. And with the average analyst in a recent Bloomberg survey calling for a 50% increase in S&P 500 earnings this year, stock prices could easily jump just as high.
6. Life Expectancy
The fact that the current bull market is now one year old is a big deal. The last 13 bull markets that lived that long ending up lasting an average of 4.4 years and returned 153%. This bull is still a baby in comparison.
7. The Herd is Clueless (Again)
We all know it's bad to follow the herd. And right now, the herd is clueless. The entire time the market's been heading higher, they've been plowing their money into bonds!
The latest data from Morningstar reveals that over 95% of the $377.4 billion flowing into mutual funds last year went into bond funds. Year-to-date money flows are similarly lopsided, with 71% going into bond funds.
Even worse, investors are withdrawing money from stocks to fund this strategy. In February, investors withdrew $3.7 billion from U.S. equity funds, the fifth outflow in six months.
So if you're selling now, you're investing right alongside the herd. Bad idea.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Questo mi fa la medesima impressione di un perma bearish solo che sta nell'altro campo, certamente dice anche cose giuste ma accede nell'entusiasmo rialzista soprattuto quando parla di fondamentali e considera la serie storica partendo dal periodo di maggiore sopravvalutazione storica. Per non dire poi che la proeizione degli utili e le stime degli analisti seguono sempre il trend del mercato.
Per quanto riguarda il macro è tutto vero, sebbene proeitti solamente i dati positivi e tralasci quelli negativi come la situazionedello small business USA ed i dati contrastanti provenienti dal macro (esempio l'immobiliare ecc.)
Tecnicamente parlando dice cose correte ma anche in questo caso presenta solo la medaglia positiva.
Concludendo un perma bullish è pericoloso quanto un perma bearish anche se il mercato lo preferisce sicuramente e se sbaglierà sarà considerato uno sfigato e non un menagramo...
superrudy
Beyond good and evil
Boh.. Alla fine il post di presepio con il mio post successivo riassumono in toto la mia view attuale (che penso sia in linea anche con la view di John)
1. Non si andrà più sotto 1145
2. Si arriverà piano piano in maggio a 1250
3. In giugno potrebbe inizare un periodo di consolidamento con un paio di su e giù tra 1160 e 1250.
4. A settembre si decide dove andare definitivamente. Al 80% si sale e si arriva fino a 1300-1350
Tutto lo scenario cambia solo con close weekly sotto 1145.
Non chiedetemi più come la penso quindi perchè è semplicemente tutto scritto qui
1. Non si andrà più sotto 1145
2. Si arriverà piano piano in maggio a 1250
3. In giugno potrebbe inizare un periodo di consolidamento con un paio di su e giù tra 1160 e 1250.
4. A settembre si decide dove andare definitivamente. Al 80% si sale e si arriva fino a 1300-1350
Tutto lo scenario cambia solo con close weekly sotto 1145.
Non chiedetemi più come la penso quindi perchè è semplicemente tutto scritto qui
)
bucintoro
Forumer storico
Boh.. Alla fine il post di presepio con il mio post successivo riassumono in toto la mia view attuale (che penso sia in linea anche con la view di John)
1. Non si andrà più sotto 1145
2. Si arriverà piano piano in maggio a 1250
3. In giugno potrebbe inizare un periodo di consolidamento con un paio di su e giù tra 1160 e 1250.
4. A settembre si decide dove andare definitivamente. Al 80% si sale e si arriva fino a 1300-1350
Tutto lo scenario cambia solo con close weekly sotto 1145.
Non chiedetemi più come la penso quindi perchè è semplicemente tutto scritto qui
questa view ha la stessa probabilità che qualunque altra...bah
superrudy
Beyond good and evil
Grande commento davvero... bah