Titoli di Stato area non Euro Romania Stato sovrano: news, info, analisi

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E della Romania che ne dite? Sta sera al TG5 è stata citata tra i paesi a rischio default..:titanic:
Ora, che il mio 2012 8,5% preso a 98 non sia un BUND o una BEI non ci piove, che la Romania non sia un bengodi neppure, e infatti ci ho messo un 2-3% del mio PTF, però che l'Europa possa lasciarla andare all'aria dopo averla voluta con se mi sembra molto più improbabile di un default di paesi dell'ex unione sovietica che sono ancora fuori dalla zona Euro, e che comunque non rendono più del titolo rumeno...
 
Ultima modifica di un moderatore:
Le agenzie non sono ottimiste e si attendono che il paese si rivolga per aiuti al FMI. Anche la Romania è fuori dalla zona euro, ma sta messa meglio di taluni stati ex sovietici...

S&P doubts Romania's ability to pursue fiscal tightening

* Sees Romania entering recession this year
* Sees budget gap at 6.2 pct/GDP vs 2 pct government target
* Sees euro zone entry in 2015-2020
* Maintains "junk" status, keeps negative outlook

By Marius Zaharia

BUCHAREST, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's, the first agency to downgrade Romania to a "junk" rating, warned on Friday that Bucharest's stringent fiscal plans may be threatened by social pressures and unrealistic expectations of economic growth. Romania's centre-left coalition approved an austerity 2009 budget last week. It set an ambitious fiscal deficit goal of 2 percent of GDP, compared with over 5 percent last year, in an effort praised by the central bank and the International Monetary Fund.

But S&P analyst Marko Mrsnik said the agency was still not convinced that Bucharest can fulfil its plans, four months after it downgraded Romania.
"The problem is that firstly, (the budget) is based on underlying macroeconomic assumptions which appear overly optimistic and secondly is going to prove difficult to be implemented," Mrsnik told Reuters in an interview.

"The strength of the government coalition may be tested as the planned fiscal restraint may come under pressure due to popular demands for increased spending in order to cushion the effects of the ongoing economic downturn."

S&P downgraded Romania's foreign currency credit by one notch in October to "BB+", with a negative outlook, due to a lack of fiscal response to its vast external deficit which has left the economy vulnerable during the global cash squeeze.

Mrsnik maintained this rating and outlook. A presidential election later this year posed another risk for fiscal tightening, he said, adding that he was sceptical about the budget's projection of 2.5 percent economic growth.
He now forecasts the economy will shrink 0.8 percent this year, compared with a previous estimate of 0.8 percent growth, largely due to a deterioration in the external environment.

Mrsnik sees the budget deficit widening to 6.2 percent of GDP in 2009 and inflation at 5.3 percent, above an officially targeted 2.5-4.5 percent.


IMF TEST

A potential deal with the IMF would signal the government is willing to pursue right policies to stabilise the economy, but the fiscal restraints which will be part of the deal may weaken the ruling coalition by boosting social unrest, Mrsnik said.

"Every such agreement comes also with some strings attached and the governing coalition might be tested as the government may face substantial pressure for additional budgetary outlays, especially in the area of social transfers," he added.

He did not rule out the possibility that potential fiscal constraints of an IMF deal could create a rupture in the coalition of President Traian Basescu's Democrat-Liberals and their leftist Social-Democrat partners.

Romania and Latvia are the only European Union members rated below investment grade. Romania is expected to follow the Baltic state's example and seek an aid package from international institutions, including the IMF.

Mrsnik also said that Romania was more likely to join the euro zone in the second half of the next decade, compared with its target of 2014. (Editing by David Stamp)
 
Debito estero lordo

Come puoi vedere a questo link della banca centrale romena http://www.bnro.ro/En/Statistica/SDDS/T_ED.pdf la totalita' del debito estero dello stato e' di appena 10 miliardi di euro, quasi tutti a lungo termine.Difficile immaginare che non riescano a pagare le cedole. A preoccupare sono i restanti 60 miliardi di debito dovuto dai privati.
 
E della Romania che ne dite? Sta sera al TG5 è stata citata tra i paesi a rischio default..:titanic:
Ora, che il mio 2012 8,5% preso a 98 non sia un BUND o una BEI non ci piove, che la Romania non sia un bengodi neppure, e infatti ci ho messo un 2-3% del mio PTF, però che l'Europa possa lasciarla andare all'aria dopo averla voluta con se mi sembra molto più improbabile di un default di paesi dell'ex unione sovietica che sono ancora fuori dalla zona Euro, e che comunque non rendono più del titolo rumeno...

ho seguito abbastanza da vicino il bond in questione
il 2012 8,5% è molto ballerino, l'ho trattato da metà dicembre quando quotava 90-92 fino ai primi di febbraio. Avrai visto che aveva superato i 101 e appena la situazione in questo mese è peggiorata è ritornato intorno a 99,5-100.
al momento io ne rimango fuori senza rimpianti
 
Il Romania continua a tenere sui 99-100, è in leggero calo (aveva toccato i 101), probabilmente scontando anche un pò di effetto domino sui grossi timori per Ucraina e Latvia.

Mi domando se il mercato, che in genere ha sempre ragione, possa tenere un titolo sui 100 se vicino al default..ma magari mi sbaglio, in fondo sono ancora un NEOFITA, e chiedo venia
 
La storia ci insegna che bond che quotano sui 90-100 non falliscono nel breve periodo.

Il mercato molto meglio di società di rating o analisi "nasa" prima le situazioni critiche a breve.

Anche Lehman Brothers, il calo di fallimento forse più clamoroso perchè meno prevedibile, aveva delle obbligazioni che quotavano sotto i 90, attorno agli 80 che destavano alcuni sospetti.

Ciò non toglie che se la crisi continua o si acuisce i bond possano scendere e allora sì che ci potrebbero essere maggiori rischi.
 
Arrivato un prestito di emergenza di 20 mld euro alla Romania... 13 sono del FMI, gli altri della EU. Tutti i dettagli qui di seguito...

Romania Gets 20 Billion-Euro Bailout From IMF, EU (Update2)

By Adam Brown and Irina Savu


March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Romania got a 20 billion-euro ($27 billion) loan from the International Monetary Fund, European Union and other lenders, the sixth eastern European nation to be bailed out as the region’s economies struggle to stay afloat

About 13 billion euros will come from the IMF and the rest from the EU, World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Washington-based fund said in a statement.

The “package should more than cover Romania’s financing needs this year,” said Ozgur Yasar Guyuldar, an emerging markets strategist in Vienna at Raiffeisen Centrobank, in an e- mail today. “The IMF deal will certainly bring some discipline to the budget. I view this aid package as a big relief.”

The Balkan nation, which had the fastest-growing economy in the EU last year, is plunging into a recession and the central bank has little scope to lower interest rates to revive growth. The loan brings to more than $60 billion the total handed out to eastern Europe. Hungary, Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia and Serbia have also sought bailouts to prevent defaults and aid banks.

“The objective of the policy package is to cushion the effects of the sharp drop in private capital inflows,” IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in the statement.

Market Reaction

Romania’s leu strengthened 0.3 percent against the euro today after weakening as much as 0.1 percent before the announcement. It was trading at 4.285 to the euro as of 11:10 a.m. in Bucharest.

The benchmark BET stock index rebounded and was trading up 0.5 percent at 11:10 a.m. after falling as much as 1.5 percent earlier.
The loan from the IMF will be disbursed over the next two years with 5 billion euros coming in the next few months after approval by the executive board, Jeffrey Franks, head of the IMF negotiating team, told reporters in Bucharest today.

The government will target a budget deficit of 4.5 percent of gross domestic product this year, compared with 4.8 percent last year, even as the economic contraction cuts revenue, Franks said. The budget approved in December would have led to a deficit of about 9 percent of GDP, he said.

The country, which had a record current account deficit of about 13 percent of GDP last year, has predicted it will narrow to less than 10 percent this year as a weaker leu trims imports.

‘Core Measures’

Romania requested talks with international organizations this month as exports suffer from waning demand in its key western European trading partners.

“Core measures under the program are designed to strengthen fiscal policy to reduce the government’s financing needs and improve long-term fiscal sustainability, thus preparing Romania for euro-zone entry,” the IMF release said. The country aims to adopt the European common currency in 2014.

Romania’s economy expanded 7.1 percent last year. Private lending soared as much as 64 percent, wages increased more than 20 percent on the year and rising foreign investment brought unemployment to a 16-year low.

This year, the international financial crisis has deterred new investment and persuaded foreign investors to withdraw cash, weakening the leu and restricting growth to an annual 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter. The government predicts the economy will shrink as much as 4 percent this year.

Social Provisions

Prime Minister Emil Boc, elected in November to head a coalition of his Liberal Democrat Party and former communists from the Social Democrat Party, has said the government will ensure social protection for pensioners and the poor while cutting spending in other areas and raising some taxes.

The IMF said the agreement contains “explicit provisions to increase allocations for social programs.” It said the conditions placed on the government were “ambitious but realistic,” though state wages and pensions will not be cut.

The EBRD, in a separate news release, said about half of its 1 billion-euro contribution “will be dedicated to the financial sector and the rest invested across the broader economy, including in the corporate, energy and energy efficiency and national and municipal infrastructure sectors.”
Moody’s Investors Service, which affirmed Romania’s credit rating at Baa3 on March 20, said it would consider a downgrade if the country didn’t obtain aid.
 

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