Domani 22 Febbraio i conti di Tenaris
e il 23 webcast alle 8 e.t.
Berenberg per intanto li anticipa e dice hold tp 13,50 (da 12,50)
per chi è tuttora shorta si spera in conti (ed outlook) come quelli di Wood group oggi a Londra oil service provider che ha sfiorato il -10% per close a -7,77%
Raising estimates, but maintaining rating
● We raise our 2017E EBITDA and earnings per ADS to $1.03bn and $0.46,
respectively, up from $928m and $0.32. This is due to higher oil country
tubular goods (OCTG) price estimates, supported by restocking in North
America and strong momentum for both steel and raw material prices. Our
2018E price target is now €13.50/share from €12.50, reflecting EBITDA at
$1.55bn (+2.5%) and a stronger USD/EUR exchange rate on our valuation.
● Change to OCTG price forecast: 2017E is at $1,260/t (from $1,220/t), 2018E
is at $1,290/t (from $1,260/t), while 2019E price forecast is at $1,350/st.
● FY 2016 preview: Tenaris will report its results on Wednesday 22 February,
after the market closes. We forecast headline EBITDA at $679m (underlying
at $730m) and earnings per ADS at $0.10 (EPS at $0.5), versus Bloomberg
consensus EBITDA at $684m and EPS at $0.05. We expect a dividend of
$0.45 per ADS ($0.23 per share) and a net cash position of c$1.44bn (after
dividend), down from $1.52bn. Our Q4 EBITDA forecast is at $196m.
● There will be a conference call with webcast on Thursday 23 February, at
08:00 ET. To dial in call: +1 877 730 0732 (US) or +1 530 379 4676
(international); ID: 63007433.
● What to focus on: Beyond restocking activities and an uptick of OCTG
price in the US, the key assessment of Tenaris’ earning progression is the
OCTG price momentum and status of projects in the ex-US markets. We
would also focus on: 1) risk to Tenaris’ Mexican OCTG seamless exports to
the US due to President Trump’s “America first policy”. While Tenaris’
exports from Mexico will be gradually replaced by a new US seamless
OCTG plant in Bay City, mostly in H2 2017, there could clearly be an impact
on the group’s shipments before the full rump-up of the facility; 2) an
update on the potential revision of US anti-dumping duties against
imports of welded OCTG from South Korea, which would clearly benefit
Tenaris as it is the leading OCTG welded producer in the US; 3) the outlook
on the impact of an oil price recovery on line pipe projects in South
America, mostly Brazil.
● Between OCTG demand, supply response and “Rig Direct”: A few more
questions for management would be related to the potential domestic
supply that may hit the US OCTG market if OCTG prices continue to
increase, and an update on the implementation of the Rig Direct strategy,
which is the direct sale of OCTG to end-users, skipping the distribution.
● Valuation: Tenaris trades at 10.4x EV/EBITDA on our 2018E EBITDA,
which looks expensive on our 2018E metrics. However, a potential further
strengthening of the energy price during 2017 may trigger higher spending
in the sector and support the valuation on a longer-time horizon.