Moody's corregge al ribasso l'outlook dei rating sovrani greci, da positivo a stabile, mentre il rating resta A1.
Secondo Moody's la Grecia è in una situazione paragonabile a quella italian, con un debito pubblico elevato ma un debito dei privati basso, per cui non vi sarà necessità di intervenire a sostegno della crescita economica per effetto di un deleverage che investe direttamente il comparto privato.
Ad oggi gli interventi della Grecia a sostegno delle proprie banche valgono l'11% del PIL e non sono particolarmente elevati per gli standard di altri paesi EU.
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Moody's changes the outlook for Greece's A1 rating to stable[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]London, 25 February 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today changed the outlook for the Greek government's A1 bond ratings to stable from positive. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"The change in outlook reflects Moody's opinion that the Greek government's ratings are well positioned at A1 and that an upgrade to the Aa rating range is unlikely in the next 12-18 months," says Arnaud Marès, a Senior Vice President in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's recognises that the global synchronised downturn is taking its toll on the Greek economy as it is on other advanced economies, with growth coming to a halt and public debt ratios reversing their decline from previous years. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"On a relative basis, however, Greece is so far less affected than many of its rating peers," explains Mr. Marès. "While the government's indebtedness is high, that of the private sector is less so, in comparison to many other advanced economies. The need for deleveraging private agents' balance sheets, which is at the root of the deep recession experienced by many other economies, is less pressing in Greece", he said. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's expects public debt metrics to deteriorate in Greece over the next few years, with debt/GDP rising again towards 100%. "While the debt level is very high, the pace of deterioration of debt ratios is not outsized relative to other EU governments," comments Mr. Marès. Indeed, the contingent liabilities accumulated by the Greek government in the context of its support to the banking sector (totaling up to around 11% of GDP) are similar to those of other countries. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's notes, however, that the ongoing global crisis highlights the Greek economy's and government's limited shock adjustment capacity. Therefore, limited capability to respond to shocks is the main constraint on the Greek government's rating in the current context. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's believes that low external competitiveness makes it more difficult to re-engineer growth potential, and the Greek economy is unlikely to rapidly return to the robust growth rates of past years. Furthermore, the political environment -- evidenced by the riots across the country last year -- lacks the strong national consensus needed to implement bold fiscal reforms. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Against this background, Moody's expects that the Greek government would find it difficult to rapidly reverse the deterioration of debt metrics if public finances were subject to further shocks, such as a rise in the government's cost of funding. The rise in Greek government bond yields relative to e.g. Germany or France has so far had little effect on debt dynamics, due to (i) the fall in global bond yields and ECB official rates and (ii) skilful debt management (which has reduced the amount of debt refinanced in any single year). However, if high relative borrowing costs are sustained, they could gradually result in a drain on fiscal resources. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]While the Greek government bond yields spreads to Germany have risen, Moody's does not believe that the government faces constraints in its access to finance. Participation in the euro area provides the government with access to a large pool of investors in its domestic currency. Furthermore, the Public Debt Management Agency's frontloading of borrowing since the start of the year, the long average maturity of the debt and diversification of sources of funding all contribute to alleviating financing risk. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The last rating action with respect to the Greek government was implemented on 11 January 2007, when Moody's changed the outlook for the government's bond ratings to positive from stable.[/FONT]