2005: Il ritorno dei Bund/Bonds viventi ! vm 18 anni (4 lettori)

Fleursdumal

फूल की बुराई
Lasciate ogni speranza o voi ch'entrate :eek: :eek: :D :eek: :eek:

documento programmatico:

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Fleursdumal

फूल की बुराई
ultimo report ormai obsoleto, visto l'andazzo dell'inflazione ormai importa sega, c'è il fly to quality :eek: e che quality :sad: :smile: :D


US Treasuries shudder lower after inflation shock

NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices slid on Wednesday after a surprisingly large rise in core U.S. inflation suddenly revived fears the Federal Reserve might have to be more aggressive in raising interest rates.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note <US10YT=RR> shed 16/32 in price, lifting yields to 4.28 percent from 4.22 percent late Tuesday. Two-year notes <US2YT=RR>, the most sensitive to Fed rate speculation, dived 5/32, taking yields to 3.59 percent from 3.50 percent.

Consumer prices rose 0.6 percent overall in March, just above median forecasts for a 0.5 percent gain. The core measure excluding food and energy climbed 0.4 percent when analysts had looked for only a 0.2 percent rise.

Annual growth in the core measure, which is considered more important for monetary policy, actually slowed to 2.3 percent from 2.4 percent in February. Still, the hefty jump in the monthly measure was enough to quash recent speculation that the Fed might go slower on hiking rates.

"This is not a bond-friendly number," said David Ader, interest rate strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital. "You can argue about rounding up and the slowdown in the annual rate is important, but this is still inflation."

Analysts noted the core measure actually rose 0.351 percent on the month but was rounded up to 0.4 percent. The out-sized gain was a particular disappointment to bond holders as core producer prices for March had been surprisingly muted.

Bonds were also pressured by stock futures <SPM5> , which rallied after upbeat earnings from Intel <INTC.O> and Yahoo Inc. <YHOO.O>, while Ford <F.N> pleased by reporting a smaller drop in profits than expected. Ford's result boosted its bonds and eased some fears about a credit downgrade, giving nervous investors less need to buy safer Treasuries.

Five-year Treasury notes <US5YT=RR> fell 11/32 in price, lifting yields to 3.94 percent from 3.86 percent. The 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> lost 25/32, taking its yield to 4.60 percent from 4.56 percent.

Interest rate futures <0#ED:> slid as the market priced in a greater risk of higher official rates through the year. Fed fund futures <0FF:> were now completely pricing in quarter point hikes at the Fed's May and June meetings and they're pricing in most of another quarter percentage point hike at the August meeting.

"This data suggests the Fed is right to be concerned about growing pricing pressure and should remove any doubt that they will continue their rate hike cycle barring any serious change in the economic outlook," said Drew Matus, senior financial economist at Lehman Brothers.

Still, some thought the price action in the bond market was not as dire as it could have been.

"Given the CPI shock, bonds are actually performing quite well," said Ader at RBS Greenwich. "We could see 10-year yields back-up to maybe 4.36 or so, but the selling isn't so heavy as to suggest a complete rout."

The market has yet to navigate the Fed's Beige Book, a summary of economic conditions in the 12 Fed districts, due out at 2 p.m. (1800 GMT).

Markets will be now be even more sensitive to any anecdotal evidence of inflationary pressures given recent suggestions that firms were having more luck passing on price increases.

Also on the schedule is a speech by Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson on the the current account deficit around 12:15 p.m. (1615 GMT). Finally, Fed Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner speaks before the Bond Market Association annual meeting at 3:45 p.m. (1845 GMT). ((New York Treasury Desk, 646 223-6300)) ((Multimedia versions of Reuters Top News are now available for: * 3000 Xtra: visit http://topnews.session.rservices.com * BridgeStation: view story .134 For more information on Top News: http://topnews.reuters.com))

-------------- MARKET SNAPSHOT AT 9:13 a.M. (1313 GMT)--------------------
June Eurodollar <EDM5> 96.59 (-0.05)
June T-Bond <USM5> 113-18/32 (-26/32)
June 10-year note <TYM5> 110-28/32 (-19/32)
Change vs Current
Nyk yield
Three-month bills<US3MT=RR> 2.87 (+0.01) 2.926
Six-month bills <US6MT=RR> 3.06 (+0.03) 3.146
Two-year note <US2YT=RR> 100-09/32 (-05/32) 3.598
Five-year note <US5YT=RR> 100-08/32 (-12/32) 3.944
10-year note <US10YT=RR> 97-23/32 (-18/32) 4.288
30-year bond <US30YT=RR> 111-16/32 (-28/32) 4.608
 

gastronomo

Forumer storico
Sottoscrivo il documento programmatico, anche perchè sto bund sta diventando un film dell'orrore :eek: - s'è fatto 35 ticks in un battibaleno - se l'inflazione usciva più bassa delle aspettative andava a 200, sto strunz :evil:
 

Fleursdumal

फूल की बुराई
gastronomo ha scritto:
Sottoscrivo il documento programmatico, anche perchè sto bund sta diventando un film dell'orrore :eek: - s'è fatto 35 ticks in un battibaleno - se l'inflazione usciva più bassa delle aspettative andava a 200, sto strunz :evil:

ecco un tipico protagonista del mercato in volo verso la qualità :D

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tzr

Nuovo forumer
US Treasuries shudder lower after inflation shock my ass :-D
Per me e' movimento tecnico
Dopo la puntata a 4,295% ora sta sui 4,25%, e' tornato esattamente sulla MediaMobile200, e fin qui il movimento ci sta.
Il bello viene adesso...
 

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