Upgrade di BCP, subordinati compresi...
Oggi ottime notizie per chi ha investito nei sub di BCP: sia Fitch (vedi press release allegato) che S&P si muovono in positivo su BCP.
Vediamo se nei prossimi giorni i subordinati ne risentiranno positivamente, nonostante il focus bancario negativo di queste settimane sul Portogallo:
Research Update: Portuguese Banco Comercial Portugues 'B' Long-Term Rating Placed On CreditWatch Positive On Announced Capital Increase
Publication date: 07-Jul-2014 12:10:33 EST
On June 24, 2014, Banco Comercial Portugues S.A. (Millennium bcp)
announced its intention to raise new equity capital of approximately
€2.25 billion.
We are placing our 'B' long-term ratings on the bank on CreditWatch with
positive implications and affirming the 'B' short-term rating.
The CreditWatch placement reflects the possibility that, upon completion
of the capital increase, we could raise the long-term rating on the bank
to reflect our view of its strengthened capitalization and ability to
sustain it.
Rating Action
On July 7, 2014, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services placed its 'B' long-term
counterparty credit rating on Portugal-based Banco Comercial Portugues S.A.
(Millennium bcp) on CreditWatch with positive implications. At the same time,
we affirmed our 'B' short-term rating on the bank.
In a related action, we also placed on CreditWatch positive the 'B' issue
rating on Millennium bcp's senior unsecured debt and the 'CCC-' issue rating
on the bank's nondeferrable dated subordinated debt.
We also placed on CreditWatch positive our 'B' issue rating on the secured
guaranteed exchangeable bonds due 2015, issued by Controlinveste International
Finance (not rated), which is guaranteed by Millennium bcp.
Rationale
The CreditWatch placement follows the announcement by Millennium bcp's Board
of Directors on June 24, 2014 of its decision to undertake a sizable rights
issue of approximately €2.25 billion, which is expected to close by the end of
July. We understand that the bank will use part of the proceeds to repay,
ahead of schedule, €1.85 billion of contingent convertible capital instruments
subscribed by the Portuguese state in mid-2012. The bank has stated that it
expects to pay down the remaining €750 million of state aid in early 2016.
The capital increase is reported to be fully underwritten by a group of
international banks, subject to certain conditions.
If successfully executed, we believe that the proposed rights issue could
significantly strengthen the bank's capitalization, as measured by our
risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio. Despite our expectation of low
profitability both this year and next, we forecast that, after the capital
increase, the bank's RAC ratio could reach 4% at the end of 2015--a level that
we would still consider "weak," under our criteria, but no longer "very weak"
as we do currently. We estimated the bank's RAC ratio to be a low 2.1% at
end-2013. The repayment of the contingent convertible capital instruments
subscribed by the state is neutral for our RAC calculations as we did not
consider them to be high-quality capital instruments and thus were not part of
our capital measures.
A stronger assessment of the bank's capital position would result in a
one-notch improvement of the bank's stand-alone credit profile to 'b' from
'b-'.
CreditWatch
We expect to resolve the CreditWatch upon completion of the capital increase.
All other things being equal, we would likely raise the long-term rating by
one notch if the bank successfully completes the rights issue and we believe
that, over time, it will be able to sustain higher capitalization. Conversely,
if the bank does not manage to strengthen its capital sufficiently to warrant
an improvement in our assessment of its solvency or if we anticipate that the
capital strengthening will only be temporary, we could affirm the long-term
rating at 'B'.
If we were to raise the long-term rating on the bank, we would likely assign a
negative outlook. This would reflect the possibility that, by the end of
2015--ahead of the implementation of the newly approved EU Directive on Bank
Recovery and Resolution--we would remove the one notch of uplift for
government support that we currently incorporate into the long-term rating on
the bank. This could happen if we conclude that potential extraordinary
government support, under the new framework, is less predictable.
Ratings Score Snapshot
Issuer Credit Rating B/Watch Pos/B
SACP b-
Anchor bb
Business Position Adequate (0)
Capital and Earnings Very Weak (-2)
Risk Position Moderate (-1)
Funding and Liquidity Average
and Moderate (-1)
Support +1
GRE Support 0
Group Support 0
Sovereign Support +1
Additional Factors 0
Related Criteria And Research
Related Criteria
Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013
Revised Market Risk Charges For Banks In Our Risk-Adjusted Capital
Framework, June 22, 2012
Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011
Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions,
Nov. 9, 2011
Bank Capital Methodology And Assumptions, Dec. 6, 2010
Methodology For Mapping Short- And Long-Term Issuer Credit Ratings For
Banks, May 4, 2010
Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009
Related Research
Various Rating Actions Taken On Portuguese Banks On Stabilizing Operating
Environment, May 20, 2014
Outlook On Portugal Revised To Stable From Negative On Economic And
Fiscal Stabilization; 'BB/B'; Ratings Affirmed, May 9, 2014
Ratings On Banco Comercial Portugues Affirmed At 'B/B' Following
Government Support Review; Outlook Remains Negative, April 30, 2014
Ratings List
Ratings Affirmed; CreditWatch/Outlook Action
To From
Banco Comercial Portugues S.A.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
B/Watch Pos B/Negative
Banco Comercial Portugues S.A.
Senior Unsecured B/Watch Pos B
BCP Finance Bank Ltd.
Senior Unsecured* B/Watch Pos B
Subordinated* CCC-/Watch Pos CCC-
Controlinveste International Finance
Senior Secured* B/Watch Pos
Ratings Affirmed
Banco Comercial Portugues S.A.
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating B
BCP Finance Co.
Preference Stock* D
*Guaranteed by Banco Comercial Portugues S.A.