January 22, 2009, 1:58 pm
Apple: Shrs Rally On Huge EPS Beat, But Macro Concerns Remain.
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: The deal of the Apple bulls today repeated his Buy rating on the stock, but cut his price target to $180, from $235. He also lowered his calendar 2009 iPhone unit estimate to 28 million from 45 million, and he cut his Mac unit forecast for the calendar year to 9.7 million from 11.1 million. Munster cut his FY ‘09 EPS estimate to $5.06 from $5.46; for FY 2010, he goes to $5.41, from $7.73. Munster says the biggest factor in his revised guidance is that he no longer expects Apple to unveil new iPhones in the current quarter. He now thinks a new iPhone model will arrive this summer.
Charlie Wolf, Needham: He repeated his Buy rating, but
cut his price target to $200, from $240, on the assumption that Mac shipments will be flat through FY 2009. He says the latest quarter’s results suggest that “the company is not immune to the current recession,” and adds that “the risk in the Apple story is macroeconomic.”
Keith Bachman, BMO Capital: He repeated his Outperform rating, while
increasing his target to $105, from $100. “Although growth is slowing, positive margin variance should reverse the recent stock slide caused by leadership transition issues and generally weak consumer trends.” He upped his FY ‘09 estimate to $5.13, from $4.58. For 2010, he goes to $5.47, from $5.15.
Vijay Rakesh, ThinkEquity: He repeated his Buy rating and $110 target, and increased his ‘09 EPS forecast to $5.14, from $4.78. He writes that if business and market fundamentals improve into ghe second half, which he thinks will be the case then Apple “should be a core portfolio holding.”
David Bailey, Goldman Sachs: He repeated his Neutral rating and $105 target. Bailey moved up his ‘09 EPS estimate by a nickel to $5.50, but cut 2010 by a nickel to $6.20. He said the stock may have trouble following through on today’s gains “without the benefit of a catalyst or a new product cycle during the first half of the year.”
Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan: Maintains Market Perform rating. “While attractive, we believe shares will remain range-bound in the near term until consumer spending recovers.”
Richard Gardner, Citigroup: He repeated his Buy rating, and
upped his target to $147, from $132. His 2009 EPS estimate jumps to $5.34, from $4.78. For FY 2010, he now sees $6.22, up from $5.37. And he adds that “valuation continues to look attractive.”
Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein Research: He repeated his Buy rating and $135 target. He also upped his FY ‘09 estimate to $5.50, from $5.05, and increased FY 2010 to $6.60, from $6.03. Sacconaghi contends the stock has been overly discounted. He says the company’s short-term financials remain relatively healthy, and that the longer-term growth story remains intact.
Samuel Wilson, JMP Securities: He repeats his Market Perform rating, but ups his ‘09 EPS estimate to $5.33 from $5.11. “We prefer to wait for a more attractive entry point,” he writes.
Brian Marshall, Broadpoint.Amtech: He repeated his Buy rating, and ups his target to $110, from $100, and says two big overhands on the stock - uncertainty over the health of CEO Steve Jons and the March guidance - are now behind it.
Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer: Repeats Outperform rating and $120 target. He cuts ‘09 to $5.03, from $5.43, and trims FY 2010 to $5.79, from $6.89. “We’re encouraged by the signs of fundamental stability in Apple’s business,” he writes.
Maynard Um, UBS:Maintains Neutral rating and $110 target. Cuts FY ‘09 to $5.04 from $5.11. 2010 to $6.09, from $6.77. To overcome soft desktop sales going forward, he says, “portables will have to grow at a much faster rate…which we think could prove challenging depending on the slope of the decline.”
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http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...in-pipers-munster-chops-eps-iphone-forecasts/