AAPL: dichiaro guerra....

[alingtonsky]

April 18, 2012

Goldman Sachs on Wednesday increased its price target for Apple stock to $750, and has advised investors to buy in prior to next week's earnings report.

Less than a week before Apple is prepared to announce its earnings for the March quarter, analyst Bill Shope said he expects the report due next Tuesday afternoon to be "solid," with a likely upside. He hasn't been worried by recent volatility with the stock, which saw the company post its largest ever drop of 52 points on Monday.

He believes that Apple sold around 31.1 million iPhones in the quarter, along with 12.5 million iPads. Mac sales, he admitted, are likely to be "fairly lackluster," but he still believes his estimate of 4.3 million units and 14 percent annual growth is higher than Wall Street expectations.

While the March quarter is expected to be a positive, the company could be in even better shape for its current quarter, which concludes in June. It will mark the first full three-month span in which the new iPad is available, along with the reduced-price $399 iPad 2, as well as a fully ramped distribution channel with the iPhone 4S.

"In other words, the June quarter is when many of the recent catalysts begin to fully manifest into earnings power," Shope wrote in a note to investors, attempting to dispel concerns that the June quarter could be "catalyst-light."

He also expects Mac sales to rebound quickly over the coming months, as Apple is expected to revamp its product lineup with new laptops and desktops. In particular, Apple is widely believed to be preparing a redesigned lineup of its MacBook Pro notebooks, making them thinner and lighter, and also equipping them with Intel's latest Ivy Bridge processors.

The March quarter will be "the beginning of a very big year," in Shope's eyes, which has led Goldman Sachs to increase its price target for AAPL stock to $750, up from its previous prediction of $700.

Goldman Sachs ups Apple target to $750, expects 'solid' March quarter

 

[alingtonsky]

April 24, 2012 7:45 AM EDT

Another data point is suggesting it could be a weaker-than-expected quarter for Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone sales.

Tuesday morning, AT&T (NYSE: T) said it activated 4.3 million iPhones in the first quarter. This is down from 7.6 million activated in the fourth quarter.

In Q4, AT&T's percentage of Apple's total iPhone unit sales of 37 million was 20.5 percent.

If AT&T's percent of iPhone sales remains stable from Q4 then this could suggest Apple will sell just 21 million iPhones during the past quarter (Q2).

While it is highly unlikely that AT&T will garner the same percentage of iPhone sales that it did in Q4, this figure is alarming considering the Street consensus is 30.5 million.

This also follows data from Verizon (NYSE: VZ), also showing the potential for lower-than-expected iPhone sales.

StreetInsider.com - Another Data Point Shows Apple (AAPL) May Miss iPhone Targets in Q2 April 24, 2012 7:45 AM EDT

 

[alingtonsky]

by M. Nace on Sunday Apr 22, 2012
Qualcomm’s admission of a production shortfall in their 28-nanometer chips has led analysts and tech pundits to assume that the iPhone 5′s release date will be delayed because of it. Read how Qualcomm’s supply issues may have been caused by iPhone 5 production in the first place.
Last week, thanks to the analysts at Piper Jaffray, the iPhone 5 rumor mill swung wildly back to being resigned to an October release date. Their analysis came after a report from Reuters indicating that Qualcomm’s series of 28-nanometer S4 Snapdragon chip inventories have been constrained since December, and as a result, they will not be able to meet production demands for their clients in upcoming months. The report concluded that because the iPhone 5 will “support LTE and utilize the Qualcomm 28nm baseband modem,” Piper Jaffray expects the iPhone 5 release to be delayed.
It didn’t take long for tech pundits to broadcast Piper Jaffray’s conclusions about the Qualcomm chip shortage being bad news for the June iPhone 5 release date rumor. CNET weighed in early, with Lynn La parroting the Piper Jaffray report: “According to an industry note from investment banking firm Piper Jaffray, Apple will most likely continue its trend of October launches and wait until this fall to release the iPhone 5. This later release date is said to be due to a supply issue with Qualcomm’s 28-nanometer modem chip, which will enable the new iPhone to be LTE-compatible.”
Chris Burns at SlashGear sees the Qualcomm admission as a kind of tip-off to the October iPhone 5 release, saying, “At this stage it appears that if this indicator tied with Piper Jaffray’s analyst Gene Munster’s predictions can be collectively strewn into a date – we’re looking at October of this year for the next generation iPhone.
On top of this, according to new reports, Qualcomm is scrambling to ramp up production of their 28-nanometer chips, which is being interpreted as further proof of a later iPhone 5 release, as the chip manufacturer moves to meet demands for summer iPhone 5 production. According to EDN, “Fabless chip vendor Qualcomm Inc acknowledged Wednesday that it was turning to other foundry suppliers amid a shortage of 28-nm capacity at its longtime foundry partner, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd.”
Amidst all of this banter about Qualcomm’s shortage and how the iPhone 5 will suffer an October release because of it, few have considered the other possibility: is Qualcomm’s 28-nanometer chip shortage a result of iPhone 5 production, thus pointing to a June release after all?



To support this idea, let’s go back to the original Reuters article, since it doesn’t assume or reference anything about the iPhone 5. The article quotes Qualcomm Chief Financial Officer Bill Keitel as saying, ”Demand went so far ahead of availability that we’ve decided to start spending more money to get more supply as soon as possible.” Keitel’s comments confirm that the shortfall of chips was not a result of some kind of manufacturing snafu, but rather from excessive demand that Qualcomm’s supply could not keep up with. Since we know that Qualcomm is suffering from supply constraints across all of its S4 Snapdragon 28-nanometer chips, this implies that someone has been buying up their chips over the past months.
Couldn’t that have been Apple?
Tiernan Ray at Barron’s seems to br thinking along these lines. Reporting on CitiGroup’s Glen Yeung, who issued a “buy” rating after the Qualcomm news, he explains that “While the company attributed the shortfall to supply constraints for newer chips with 28-nanometer feature sizes, Yeung thinks it was all about Apple. Specifically, Apple’s forthcoming transition to the as-yet-unannounced “iPhone 5,” he speculates, means the company has less need for Qualcomm’s existing 45-nanometer chips this quarter.”
Yeung is assuming an October iPhone 5 release as well, but why is it not possible that Qualcomm’s current dearth of 28-nanometer chips is a result of Apple’s big iPhone 5 order for them, and that it will be the iPhone 5 competitors who will be delayed? After all, we’ve already heard about the Foxconn hiring rumors, and since assembly is the last process in manufacturing, Apple may have its Qualcomm chip components already in place.
It’s worth noting that Qualcomm themselves never attributed any specific client or device to the heavy demand that led to this shortfall.
What’s interesting, however, is that, when you look at the list of S4 Snapdragon chips, very few appear to be deployed in current devices. According to Wikipedia, only the MSM8960 and MSM8260A have been used on a smattering of Asus, HTC, and ZTE devices this year — certainly not enough to put Qualcomm in the production hole that they now find themselves in.
This story can be likened to the recent LiquidMetal rumors as well: we reported last week on how LiquidMetal Technologies released this statement to the press on the morning of March 7th, when the iPad 3 was announced:
Liquidmetal Technologies today announced that its manufacturing operations are currently in the midst of shipping commercial parts to several of its customers world-wide. Parts delivery began this past December with continuing shipments scheduled for the months ahead.
Tech media analysts blundered this report badly, excitedly assuming that it was making reference to the New iPad being constructed of LiquidMetal’s alloy. Now, in 20/20 hindsight, that admission may have been pointing to the iPhone 5, instead — or on other products entirely. “Several of its customers” certainly doesn’t indicate Apple directly.
By no means does Qualcomm’s chip shortage clearly indicate a June iPhone 5 release. But if also doesn’t point to a delayed October release, either. All we know is that the shortfall was driven by huge demand, and none of the 2012 devices using the 28-nanometer chips are selling well enough to substantiate the shortage. Thus, I believe there is just as much reason to believe Apple drained Qualcomm’s warehouses for a June iPhone 5 as there is evidence to support the October release.

Qualcomm Chip Shortage May Suggest June iPhone 5 Release, Not October | The iPhone 5 News Blog

 

[alingtonsky]

April 24, 2012
09:13 EDT AAPL
theflyonthewall.com: Apple pullback a buying opportunity, says Topeka.
Topeka said investors need to put AT&T (T) iPhone activations into perspective. The firm said following launch, AT&T usually drops significantly as a percentage of iPhone sales and not to read too much into iPhone activations to estimate total iPhone shipments for the quarter. Apple (AAPL) shares are Buy rated with a $1001 price target. :

Stock Market & Financial Investment News: Educated Investors Get Live Stock Market News Feeds & Alerts at The Fly On the Wall

 

[alingtonsky]

4/24/2012 5:41:00 PM - Dow Jones Business News

Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) fiscal second-quarter profits jumped 94% as the consumer electronics giant reported strong sales of its iPhone and iPad products.

Shares rose 7% to $599.50 in after-hours trading, and briefly went above $600 again, as results topped analyst expectations. Apple said it was the highest revenue and earnings ever for the March quarter.

The latest results come after Apple reported a blockbuster first-quarter, which set new sales and profit records, thanks to the surging popularity of its smartphone and tablet computer. The company's iPhone continued to be a key driver of growth in the latest period, as Apple sold 35.1 million iPhone units last quarter, up 88% from the prior year's total.

"For the first half of the fiscal year, we have sold more than 72 million iPhones, growth of over 100% and above the market by two times," Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer said in an interview.

Ahead of Apple's earnings, concerns were rising about the company's iPhone sales after U.S. carriers Verizon Wireless and AT&T Inc. (T) reported fewer iPhone activations than some were expecting. Tuesday, Apple said its iPhone sales growth was led by its Asia and Pacific segments.

"We continue to see tremendous momentum in greater China where Iphone sales were five times the level of the year-ago quarter, aided by the launch of the iPhone 4S in China in January and the addition of China Telecom as a carrier in March," Oppenheimer said on the company's conference call.

Apple sold 11.8 million iPad units in the most recent period, more than double from a year earlier. Apple began selling the third-generation iPad last month, the first major product launch for Apple since the latest iPhone went on sale in October. Apple had said it sold a record 3 million iPads in the product's first weekend of sales.

"Demand is staggering, and we're selling them as fast as we can make them," Oppenheimer said, possibly easing any concerns from those expecting higher iPad sales. Many analysts had projected iPad sales above 12 million for the March quarter.

For the second quarter, Apple reported a profit of $11.62 billion, or $12.30 a share, up from $5.98 billion, or $6.40 a share, a year earlier. Revenue increased 59% to $39.19 billion, with 64% of the top line coming from international sales.

In January, the company projected earnings of about $8.50 a share on revenue of about $32.5 billion, above Wall Street's estimates at the time. Analysts had forecast a per-share profit of $10.04 and revenue of $36.81 billion.

Gross margin widened to 47.4% from 41.4%, and above the company's recent high of 44.7%.

Apple said it generated more than $14 billion in cash flow from operations in the second quarter and reported about $ 110.18 billion in overall cash holdings. In comparison, only 19 companies in the S&P 500--not counting Apple itself-- have higher market valuations than Apple's cash holdings.

Last month, Apple unveiled plans to return some of its cash hoard to shareholders by declaring a long-awaited quarterly dividend, its first in more than a decade, and authorizing a $10 billion share repurchase program to begin in the quarter starting Sept. 30.

The maker of computers and electronics devices, known for traditionally giving conservative guidance, said it expects third-quarter earnings of about $8.68 a share on revenue of about $34 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters forecast a profit of $9.93 a share on $37.45 billion in revenue.

According to research firm Piper Jaffray, Apple's per-share earnings guidance has lagged Wall Street estimates by about 9%, on average, over the past several years, while revenue guidance is usually about 2% below Wall Street.

In the second quarter, Apple sold 4 million Macintosh computers, up 7% from a year ago and registering the products' best March quarter. The result is interesting because Apple's laptops and desktops are thought to be near the end of their product upgrade cycle, as many haven't been upgraded with new chips in nearly a year.

Apple also sold 7.7 million iPod media players, a 15% decline. Apple has reported declining sales for the iPod in recent quarters although the unit has likely benefited from higher average selling prices, as more consumers gravitate toward the iPod Touch.
...

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/after-hours#ixzz1t061H8yh

 

[alingtonsky]

April 25, 2012: 8:19 AM ET
....
Topeka's Brian White: #1 in Consumers' Hearts, Apple Fever Rocks On. "Last night, Apple's performance once again demonstrated how quickly Apple fever is spreading around the world and this trend continues to drive meaningful upside in the Company's financial results. We believe the negative vibes that have held back the stock over the past couple of weeks will now be replaced with the fear of missing the next leg up." Raises price target to $1,111.
ISI's Brian Marshall: Let the Asymmetric Alpha Generation Resume. "2 Perfect Quarters in a Row? When AAPL beat its revenue guidance by ~25% and EPS guidance by ~50% last quarter, we called it the "perfect" quarter. AAPL managed to again deliver huge upside in the Mar-12 quarter." Raising price target to $750.

J.P. Morgan's Mark Moskowitz: Those Are Really Big Numbers; Customer Affinity for Apple Devices Intensifies. "Apple continues to defy the law of large numbers with ongoing momentum across all of its major product lines. After setting all-time revenue and EPS records in the seasonally strong Dec-Q, Apple followed that up with its second best quarter ever and records for a Mar-Q. The company's results are a testament to Apple's optimization of the end user experience, in our view." Price target: $715.

Canaacord Genuity's T. Michael Walkley: Strong Quarter. "Apple generated an astonishing $14B in cash from operations during the quarter and ended the March quarter with $110.2B in cash and cash equivalents, representing a remarkable $117 in cash per share. Based on the closing price of $560 per share, Apple is trading at roughly 8x our updated F2013 estimate after backing out the $117 in cash per share. With Apple returning cash to shareholders through its dividend and buyback programs starting later this year, we believe Apple remains a compelling investment." Raising price target to $775.
Morningstar's Michael Holt: Surging iPhone Sales Propel Apple to Another Stellar Quarter. "The clear standout metric, however, was Apple's gross margin of 47.4%, up 600 basis points year over year and 270 basis points sequentially. The ability to expand the gross margin and deliver massive unit shipment growth signals that Apple is having no trouble moving premium-priced units." Fair value estimate: $670 per share.

Citi's Richard Gardner: Yet Another iPhone Blow-Out. "While we continue to see potential for a merely in-line quarter at some point this year ahead of the iPhone 5 transition, valuation is not demanding and we would be aggressive buyers on any potential weakness." Raising price target to $720.
Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore: China and iPhone drives upside. "Although iPhone unit shipments were very robust in the March Q (35M vs. Street at ~31M), we note the 2.6M channel inventory unit build, compressed global launch schedule (now available in 100 countries), dearth of large immediate, new carrier additions and the forthcoming iPhone 5 transition (October) will likely dampen iPhone demand over the next couple of Qs." Raising price target to $650.

BMO's Keith Bachman. Asia Rising. "Asia Pacific revenue increased 32% q/q, compared with a decline of at least 22% q/q for all other geographies and a decline of 15% q/q for total revenue. Consistent with our past comments, we believe growth was driven by China, due in part to the iPhone 4S launch at China Unicom in January and China Telecom in March. Greater China revenue increased about 75% q/q to $7.9 billion in the March quarter. In other words, we estimate Greater China accounts for 78% of total Asia Pacific revenue, compared with around 58% in the December quarter." Raising price target to $675.
RBC's Amit Daryanani. International Performance Picking Up Steam. "Apple reported significant upside to Mar-qtr estimates, driven by robust strength in international iPhone sales coupled with an exceptionally successful ramp of iPad 3. Gross margins of 47.4% were almost 500bps ahead of expectations, driven by better mix (more iPhones) coupled with commodity tailwinds." Raises price target to $700.

Society Generale's Andy Perkins: China demand for iPhones drives excellent quarter. "We had become concerned that Apple could struggle to find high sales in markets traditionally dominated by low-end handsets. We believe that the results from China demonstrate that our concerns were misplaced, especially as we only saw sales from China Telecom and China Unicom for part of the quarter. Additionally, we calculate that the gross margin achieved by Apple on the iPhone is now approaching 60%, much higher than our previous forecasts." Raising price target to $750.

Needham's Charlie Wolf: In an oft-repeated refrain, Apple produces yet another strong quarter. "To an increasing extent, Apple's fortunes have become hostage to the iPhone in part because of the phone's superlative gross margin. At 35.0 million units (vs. our estimate of 27 million), iPhone sales increased 88% year-over." Price target: $620.
...

Apple's Q2 blowout: What the analysts are saying - Apple 2.0 - Fortune Tech)

April 25, 2012, 8:52 a.m. EDT

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs analyst Bill Shope on Wednesday upped Apple Inc.'s 12-month price target to $850 a share from $750 a share after the computer maker's stronger-than-expected first-quarter results. Goldman reiterated its conviction-list buy rating on Apple and said its new target price is based on Apple's "improved margin profile and cash flow generation." During the quarter, Apple set an operating margin record of 39.3%, Shope said.
...

Goldman Sachs ups Apple target price to $850 - MarketWatch

 

[alingtonsky]

APRIL 25, 2012, 9:57 A.M. ET
by T. Ray

Shares of Apple (AAPL) are up $46.42, or over 8%, at $606.70, continuing the strong run in the pre-market, after the company last night beat fiscal Q2 expectations with a stronger-than-expected showing in sales of its iPhone, moving 35.06 million units of the thing, with strong growth, quarter over quarter, in Asia-Pacific sales overall.
...

Price targets and estimates are rising pretty much across the board this morning. As for the lower-than-expected fiscal Q3 projection, the Street cares little about that as the focus now is moving toward the introduction of an “iPhone 5” sometime later this year.

Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein Research: Reiterates an Outperform rating, and raises his price target to $750 from $710. While the 23% upside on EPS was “in line” with Apple’s average 20% beat the last 12 quarters, the gross margin of 47.4% was the best outperformance in 20 quarters, he writes. Sacconaghi believes “iPhone products cycles appear to be getting increasingly pronounced,” with Q1 and Q2 benefitting, but Q3 and Q4 not as much. He thinks Street consensus may remain subdued for this quarter and next, and that “Apple’s revenue guidance for FY Q3 was its 2nd most conservative in the last three years; moreover, last time Apple gave guidance that was similarly conservative (for Q4 FY 11), it ultimately missed consensus revenues and EPS (which both of which had been revised upwards post-guidance).” Sacconaghi raised his estimate for EPS for this year to $46.45 from a prior $44.23, largely because of Q2′s results.

Tavis McCourt, Raymond James: Reiterates a Strong Buy rating, and an $800 price target, writing that the growth in Apple’s sales in China, in particular, where Apple sold more than three times as much as the year-earlier quarter, was “remarkable.” The iPhone, in particular, demonstrated its increasing success in the region: “Based on Apple generating $7.9 billion in revenue from China, we estimate that it may have shipped as many as 8-10 million iPhones into China this quarter. This would likely place iPhone in the ~25%-ish share range for the China smartphone market thanks to tremendous demand for the iPhone 4S. We do not believe Apple has ever shipped close to even 5 million smartphones into China previously. We do not know if this 8-10 million unit run rate is sustainable beyond a launch quarter, but it does appear that the iPhone is moving beyond its niche status in China and competing more effectively against the substantial Android competition in the market.” McCourt actually cut his fiscal 2012 estimate to $157.34 billion in revenue from a prior $161.88 billion, while maintaining his $45.16 per share in profit after he changed his expectation for an iPhone 5 introduction from September to October.

Bill Shope, Goldman Sachs: Reiterates a Buy rating and raises his price target to $850 from $750, writing that the results offered “significant” upside, with revenue of $39.2 billion “far ahead” of his $36.9 billion estimate. “Out of all the good news in the quarter, we believe Apple’s margin upside has the most important long-term implications for the story. While these margins should come down in quarters where iPhone mix is less substantial, the results suggest that annual margins can sustainably be much higher than investors previously appreciated.” Shope raised his calendar 2012 estimate to $168.29 billion and $49.70 per share from a prior $166.92 billion and $45.76 per share, equating to fiscal year results of $156.49 billion and $45.72.

Hendi Susanto, Gabelli & Co.: Reiterates a Buy rating and offers a market value for the shares, based on 2013 estimates, of $1,180 per share. He thinks the forecast gross margin of 41.5% may come in higher this quarter with “strong” iPhone 4S shipments. As for the iPad this quarter, “We believe Apple’s supply chain capacity can now ramp up to close to record shipment of 15+ million in 1Q12.” Susanto raised the gross margin projection for the company from “lower 40s to closer toward mid 40s.”

....
....

Brian Marshall, ISI Group: Reiterates a Buy rating, and raises his price target to $750 from $650, writing that this was Apple’s second perfect quarter in a row. “When AAPL beat its revenue guidance by ~25% and EPS guidance by ~50% last quarter, we called it the “perfect” quarter. AAPL managed to again deliver huge upside in the Mar-12 quarter, beating its revenue guidance by nearly ~$6.7bil (or 20%+ upside on guidance of ~$32.5bil) and its EPS guidance by ~$3.80 (or ~45% upside on guidance of ~$8.50) due to the continued roll-out of the iPhone 4S, very strong iPad demand and continued growth in Asia.” Moreover, “risks from carrier subsidy levels and component availability are currently minimal.”

Apple: Price Targets Zoom on ‘Another Perfect Quarter’ - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

 

[alingtonsky]

May 1, 2012, 12:56pm PDT

Summary: Although the iPad 2 gave Apple a boost last quarter, Hewlett-Packard made a mini-comeback in the global PC shipment race.

Hewlett-Packard is making a quick comeback in the global client PC market share race.

After just one quarter, the Silicon Valley giant has retaken the lead just a few months after it slipped behind Apple at the end of 2011, according to the latest report from analyst house Canalys.

HP’s lead in Q1 2012 was a close one, out-shipping Apple by roughly only 40,000 units.

Apple skirted past HP in Q4 mainly thanks to iPad sales. However, if you paid attention to Apple’s recent quarterly earnings announcements, you’ll remember that iPad numbers didn’t meet expectations. Apple shipped approximately 11.8 million iPads last quarter, bringing its total client PC number for the quarter to 15.8 million.

But given the close gap between Apple and HP as well as Canalys analyst predictions that tablet are exhibiting the most growth at a rate of more than 200 percent year-over-year, it could be anyone’s crown for the taking next quarter.

Nevertheless, Canalys analysts also added in the report that tablet sales are a bit lopsided, with more of them stemming from the United States than elsewhere.

Canalys research analyst Tom Evans explained further in the report:

Most of the leading PC vendors have done a reasonable job of offsetting the declines in their netbook shipments over the past year with increased pad business. Samsung and Lenovo are two that stand out in terms of substantially increasing overall volume, though Asus has performed well too. The challenge is breaking out into the really big volumes to challenge the leaders – Apple and Amazon. So far, only Samsung has shown it can routinely ship more than a million pads a quarter.

Lenovo, Acer, and Dell rounded out the top five.

Canalys: HP retakes lead over Apple in global client PC race | ZDNet)

 

[alingtonsky]

May 1, 2012, 11:49 A.M. ET
....
On Friday, Senior Vice President Scott J. Forstall sold 64,151 shares for $38.7 million, an average of $603.11 per share, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The sale represented a 95.5% stake of Forstall’s direct holdings, leaving him with 2,988 shares left following the transaction.

Forstall has been with Apple since 1997. This is his first major sale since he sold over 40,000 shares in April 2010, when the stock was trading at $267, netting him $10.8 million.

Also on Friday Director Millard Drexler exercised and sold 40,000 shares for an average of $603.52 a share, netting $23.7 million.


Apple SVP Sells $38.7M In Stock - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com)


Google Traduttore

 

[alingtonsky]

May 4, 2012, 10:00 AM
S Fiegerman

It looks like Apple is going to have a significant drop in iPhone sales this quarter on a sequential basis.
DigiTimes reports the two companies responsible for making the latest iPhone's touch panels - TPK Holding and Wintek -- expect their shipments to decline by about 15-20% this quarter.
According to DigiTimes' report, which is based on interviews with industry sources, the decline in touch panel shipments is due to the fact that the "iPhone 4S is moving into the final stage of its product life cycle, and Apple is likely to adopt in-cell touch solutions for its next-generation model,"
This may be further evidence that the next iPhone will come in the third quarter of this year.


Read more: iPhone Touch Panel Shipments To Decline - Business Insider