Imark
Forumer storico
Intanto un articolo interessante concernente l'andamento dei players del comparto. Molti i dati di rilievo: il comparto, intento in uno sforzo di concentrazione, è altamente leveraggiato, così come la stessa AB Inbev, nonostante i margini elevati sul venduto, e molte acquiszioni sono state fatte negli anni in cui comprare costava caro... 
Intanto sono arrivati i risultati trimestrali Q1/2009 di Heineken, che aveva puntato soprattutto sull'espansione verso l'Europa dell'est, e segnalano un arretramento delle vendite del 6,3%.
EUROPEAN STOCKS TO WATCH
Anheuser-Busch InBev brews up a rally
By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:46 a.m. EDT April 24, 2009
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- It may simply be a matter of a leveraged company rallying on hopes the credit markets will thaw. But the new brewing giant called Anheuser Busch InBev has enjoyed a stellar year thus far
Year to date, shares of the maker of Budweiser and Stella Artois beer have climbed nearly 36%. A company spokeswoman declined to comment on the share-price performance, saying the company is "focused on managing our business and on driving long-term sustainable growth."
In any case, its performance is far better than that of the broader market, in either the U.S. or in Belgium, where the brewer is headquartered.
The gains have come as the brewer is still swallowing the $52 billion acquisition of Anheuser-Busch made last year.
As of Dec. 31, the company's net debt swelled to roughly 41 billion euros, or $53 billion -- giving it a net-debt-to-Ebitda multiple of 7.7 times.
Company executives including Chief Executive Carlos Brito will need to reduce that to a more manageable 2.5 times by the end of 2013 to receive a stock-option grant.
Highly leveraged firms have benefited most from the renewed optimism that perhaps a recovery could be seen in the second half of the year.
Other leveraged companies have also enjoyed a strong year on the stock market. Rival brewer Carlsberg, which paid $8 billion in a deal to boost its presence in Russia and Eastern Europe, has climbed 48%.
The U.K. pub chain Mitchells & Butlers, which at the end of its most recent fiscal year carried a net-debt-to-Ebitda multiple of 6.1 times, has surged 75%.
Of course, looking at 2009 performance ignores the rough time these leveraged firms had during the credit crunch. And over 12 months, Anheuser-Busch InBev has dropped 36%.
Americans don't have the same easy access to the stock that they did when Anheuser-Busch was an independent company trading under the BUD ticker. Under the ticker ABHIF, Anheuser Busch InBev trades on low volumes in the over-the-counter market, with 14,000 shares typically exchanging hands on a given day.
Some widely held mutual funds, like American Funds EuroPacific Growth Fund and the Janus Fund, also own the stock.
But the fundamentals of the business may give some reasons to pause as beer volumes drop and customers switch to cheaper brews.
On a comparable basis, volumes at Anheuser Busch InBev dropped 1.8% in the fourth quarter, though the company more than made up for that with price hikes.
The company doesn't report first-quarter results until May 7, but rival Heineken reported a 6.3% drop in volumes.
Some who follow the stock, like Credit Suisse analyst Michael Bleakley, say Anheuser-Busch InBev can handle a down-trading environment better than rivals. He has an overweight rating on the firm and noted the company's brand strength and restructuring potential.
But the stock does have its doubters.
"You'll see this stock decline," said Tom Pirko, president of consultancy Bevmark, a firm that advises both brewers and those who invest in them. "This is a company you have to bet against in the marketplace."
He liked the InBev-Anheuser Busch deal -- at the time.
"We're strong believers in critical mass; there are so many things you can do with size," he says.
But based on the deterioration of the world's economy, and beer markets, the price paid was 35% to 40% too high, he says.
"They did maybe the right deal at the wrong price at the wrong time and now they're choking for air," he said.
Wim Hoste, an analyst at the Belgian bank KBC, on Wednesday downgraded the stock to hold from buy.
He cited the recent good share-price performance, the relatively weak first-quarter performance from Heineken, and a lack of dividend from its stake in Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo.
But Rob Mann, an analyst at the U.K. brokerage Collins Stewart, said Modelo, the maker of Corona, would represent a good way for the company to slash its debt burden.
"This takes us back to a phrase repeated by Brito at the fiscal-year results presentation that ABI was prepared if appropriate to sell now and buy later. We wonder if that was an oblique reference to a sale of the Mexican stake, in return for some guarantee of a right of first refusal in the event the Mexican controlling shareholders ever chose to sell in the future," he said.
He estimated the market value of the stake at $5.1 billion.
But it's clear that asset sales alone won't be enough to get its balance sheet back under control. The Brazilian-led executive team led by Brito has a formidable track record of slashing costs with the company's famed "zero-based" budgeting.
The question, however, is what the company will be left with after making the asset sales and cost cuts needed to trim debt.
"Cost cutting when markets are healthy is fine," said Pirko. "When you're looking at extreme measures that will have to be taken to remain solvent in the emerging markets around the world, the strategy doesn't work."
Intanto sono arrivati i risultati trimestrali Q1/2009 di Heineken, che aveva puntato soprattutto sull'espansione verso l'Europa dell'est, e segnalano un arretramento delle vendite del 6,3%.
EUROPEAN STOCKS TO WATCH
Anheuser-Busch InBev brews up a rally
By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:46 a.m. EDT April 24, 2009
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- It may simply be a matter of a leveraged company rallying on hopes the credit markets will thaw. But the new brewing giant called Anheuser Busch InBev has enjoyed a stellar year thus far
Year to date, shares of the maker of Budweiser and Stella Artois beer have climbed nearly 36%. A company spokeswoman declined to comment on the share-price performance, saying the company is "focused on managing our business and on driving long-term sustainable growth."
In any case, its performance is far better than that of the broader market, in either the U.S. or in Belgium, where the brewer is headquartered.
The gains have come as the brewer is still swallowing the $52 billion acquisition of Anheuser-Busch made last year.
As of Dec. 31, the company's net debt swelled to roughly 41 billion euros, or $53 billion -- giving it a net-debt-to-Ebitda multiple of 7.7 times.
Company executives including Chief Executive Carlos Brito will need to reduce that to a more manageable 2.5 times by the end of 2013 to receive a stock-option grant.
Highly leveraged firms have benefited most from the renewed optimism that perhaps a recovery could be seen in the second half of the year.
Other leveraged companies have also enjoyed a strong year on the stock market. Rival brewer Carlsberg, which paid $8 billion in a deal to boost its presence in Russia and Eastern Europe, has climbed 48%.
The U.K. pub chain Mitchells & Butlers, which at the end of its most recent fiscal year carried a net-debt-to-Ebitda multiple of 6.1 times, has surged 75%.
Of course, looking at 2009 performance ignores the rough time these leveraged firms had during the credit crunch. And over 12 months, Anheuser-Busch InBev has dropped 36%.
Americans don't have the same easy access to the stock that they did when Anheuser-Busch was an independent company trading under the BUD ticker. Under the ticker ABHIF, Anheuser Busch InBev trades on low volumes in the over-the-counter market, with 14,000 shares typically exchanging hands on a given day.
Some widely held mutual funds, like American Funds EuroPacific Growth Fund and the Janus Fund, also own the stock.
But the fundamentals of the business may give some reasons to pause as beer volumes drop and customers switch to cheaper brews.
On a comparable basis, volumes at Anheuser Busch InBev dropped 1.8% in the fourth quarter, though the company more than made up for that with price hikes.
The company doesn't report first-quarter results until May 7, but rival Heineken reported a 6.3% drop in volumes.
Some who follow the stock, like Credit Suisse analyst Michael Bleakley, say Anheuser-Busch InBev can handle a down-trading environment better than rivals. He has an overweight rating on the firm and noted the company's brand strength and restructuring potential.
But the stock does have its doubters.
"You'll see this stock decline," said Tom Pirko, president of consultancy Bevmark, a firm that advises both brewers and those who invest in them. "This is a company you have to bet against in the marketplace."
He liked the InBev-Anheuser Busch deal -- at the time.
"We're strong believers in critical mass; there are so many things you can do with size," he says.
But based on the deterioration of the world's economy, and beer markets, the price paid was 35% to 40% too high, he says.
"They did maybe the right deal at the wrong price at the wrong time and now they're choking for air," he said.
Wim Hoste, an analyst at the Belgian bank KBC, on Wednesday downgraded the stock to hold from buy.
He cited the recent good share-price performance, the relatively weak first-quarter performance from Heineken, and a lack of dividend from its stake in Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo.
But Rob Mann, an analyst at the U.K. brokerage Collins Stewart, said Modelo, the maker of Corona, would represent a good way for the company to slash its debt burden.
"This takes us back to a phrase repeated by Brito at the fiscal-year results presentation that ABI was prepared if appropriate to sell now and buy later. We wonder if that was an oblique reference to a sale of the Mexican stake, in return for some guarantee of a right of first refusal in the event the Mexican controlling shareholders ever chose to sell in the future," he said.
He estimated the market value of the stake at $5.1 billion.
But it's clear that asset sales alone won't be enough to get its balance sheet back under control. The Brazilian-led executive team led by Brito has a formidable track record of slashing costs with the company's famed "zero-based" budgeting.
The question, however, is what the company will be left with after making the asset sales and cost cuts needed to trim debt.
"Cost cutting when markets are healthy is fine," said Pirko. "When you're looking at extreme measures that will have to be taken to remain solvent in the emerging markets around the world, the strategy doesn't work."
