un intervento di qualita' che aiuta a schiarirsi le idee su bcon:
From the Shareholder meeting:
Cost per plant: 25 Mil
Rev per plant: 10 Mil/Year
Design Life 20 Years
From Analylist Est of Rev:
2008 - 7M
2009 - 35M
The business plan is to site 1MW by Apr 2008 and ramp up to 20MW (1 plant) by end of year
I'm guessing that works out to aprox 3/4 of a plant for the first year = 7Mil Rev
With the est of 35M for 2009 they will have to produce 3 more 20 MW plants in 2009 (total of 4)
The CEO says the new factory will be able to produce more than 1000 flywheels a year (equals 5 plants)
That means the potential exists for a share price of (at Fwd P/E per share times 20):
Year,Plants, Rev, Rev per Share, Stock Price
End 2008 1 Plant, 7M Rev, 0.10/sh, = $2.00/sh
End 2009 4 Plants, 35M Rev, 0.50/sh, = $10.00/sh
End 2010 7-9 Plants, 65-85M Rev, 1.00/sh, = $20.00/sh
Going forward if they they add 5 plants a year it adds 50Mil rev a year and that adds $10 to $20/share
The good news is they payoff each plant in 2.5 years
I'm thinking that the current share price is tracking the Fwd looking P/E estimate for 2008...
If that is the case, then $10 next year is very possible (assuming nothing goes wrong)
Hope I'm not drinking too much of the coolaid.
By the way, California has set a goal of 20% of it's power from renewable's by 2010. To do so they need to add 4,577MW of wind and 1,300 solar. This is a briefing from California ISO. Note Pages 26, 36-40. I like it when I read:
"Does the fast response rate of flywheels qualify them for premium rates?"
and
"A contract is probably essential to encourage the development of this advance transmission technology"
http://www.caiso.com/1bed/1bede3f55a320....
