Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE BUND, TBOND and the middle of the guado (VM 69) (3 lettori)
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quicksilver
Forumer storico
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]5 Homebuilder Stocks To Watch[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Commentary: The homebuilders' group is currently at a critical juncture, and is an important sector to watch for signs of a real bottom in the markets. The stock market moves in cycles that are correlated, yet not in sync with cycles in the economy. Typically, the stock market will peak ahead of the economy and bottom before a recession has ended. The reason the stock market tends to lead, is that investors will always attempt to position themselves based on what they perceive will happen in the subsequent months.
The homebuilders are usually one of the first groups to lead in a new bull market, as investors attempt to get ahead of an economic recovery, causing an increase in demand for new construction. Of course, we are experiencing a unique bear market, which is intimately tied to real estate, and there is no guarantee this market will follow a similar pattern. The fundamental picture for housing stocks and real estate in general remains bleak at best. However, in looking at the stocks for the homebuilders, it's interesting to note that they have been recovering some of their recent losses, and while the true reason remains unknown, it bears watching.
The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:XHB) attempts to replicate the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index. In looking at a chart of the last four years' worth of trading, it is clear that XHB has been in a persistent downtrend. XHB has been setting lower highs and lower lows while dropping from the $40s to under $10 in early 2009. However, an interesting thing happened in August. XHB was able to set a higher high as it cleared a peak set in May. It has been consolidating since then, while holding over the breakout area. Currently, XHB is inching toward a test of a long-term declining trendline, which has rejected earlier attempts at a breakout. It will be interesting to see how this ETF handles the test. (For more, check out Introduction To Exchange-Traded Funds.)
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[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Source: StockCharts.com[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
In drilling down to some of the individual names, many are also at critical junctures. Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), for instance, is in the process of testing an important level. TOL cleared a wide base in August, but quickly fell into a consolidation that has been taking place just above the breakout area. TOL is currently near the lower end of this range and would need to turn higher from here soon, or risk a failed breakout attempt. (For related reading, check out Trading Failed Breaks.)
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Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE:HOV) is yet another example of a home builder testing an important level. Much like TOL, HOV cleared a base in August and has been consolidating the breakout. HOV has respected the breakout level and is attempting to bounce back to test the upper range of the consolidation. A move above $5.75 would signal a probable resumption of the breakout.
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Lennar Corporation, (NYSE:LEN), on the other hand, clearly broke out from a base, and has been on a strong trend higher. LEN has been respecting the 20-day moving average on pullbacks, and appears to have formed an important bottom in the $8-$10 area. While LEN could easily consolidate some of its recent gains, it's still looking strong, and is a likely candidate to find support on pullbacks. The September low is a level to watch as a possible signal of a deeper correction if breached.
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Beazer Homes USA (NYSE:BZH) is also in the process of a strong breakout. BZH was hit pretty hard during last year's run on the homebuilders, and was close to worthless for a while, trading down to 24 cents amid speculation of a bankruptcy. BZH was able to make adjustments, and has been one of the stronger home builders from a stock price performance perspective over the past year. BZH is currently a little extended, but appears to have strong support near the $4 area.
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The homebuilders remain an interesting group to watch, because much like the financials, it is unknown how much of the current rally is due to overpricing failure on the way down, or due to expected improvement in the fundamentals in the future. As traders, the reason is not as important as watching the price action. The charts have been showing an improvement in these stocks, and with XHB beginning to set higher highs and lows, it's possible that a bottom has been put in. It will be interesting to see if XHB can survive the upcoming test of resistance, and hold above the lows it set in July. If it does, it would be a very strong signal for the group as a whole.
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Have a Great Day!
By Joey Fundora
Joey Fundora is an independent trader located in South Florida. Joey focuses on using technical analysis techniques to uncover supply and demand imbalances in equities. To see more of his work, visit his site on Stock Chart Analysis[/FONT]
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quicksilver
Forumer storico
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Weekly Report For September 28th - October 2nd, 2009[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Commentary: The general markets made their second trip down to test their rising 20-day moving averages in less than a month, even after tagging new recovery highs earlier this week. The Federal Reserve issued their policy statement on Wednesday afternoon, as is common; there was plenty of volatility surrounding the announcement that afternoon and through the end of the week. While the markets continue to trend higher overall, the big question facing traders is whether the markets are ready to begin a much deeper correction to the rally that began in March. Without a doubt, the bulls have had the upper hand over the past several weeks, and at this juncture, the benefit of the doubt remains with this simply being a pullback to relieve overbought conditions. However, there are cracks that continue so appear on the charts, and alert traders should be cautious moving forward.
In looking at the chart for the S&P500 as represented by the S&P 500 SPDRS (NYSE:SPY) ETF, you can see a few signs pointing at possible warning signs that some distribution is setting in. If you look at the volume, notice that the higher volume days are dominated by selling. This means, that the days with the most activity have been days where it is likely that institutions were distributing their holdings. SPY is also showing a MACD divergence which hints at waning momentum. This typically occurs as a rally gets extended, and while not a guarantee that a top is forming, it is a good warning signal that caution is in order.
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The Diamonds Trust, Series 1 (NYSE:DIA) ETF which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average also shows a similar pattern. Both ETF’s pulled back to their prior breakout areas, and slowed down near their rising 20-day moving averages. With the high volume distribution days and negative divergences as a warning, it appears that these ETFs will soon be pulling back a little further to test these levels as support. If buyers step in, then it will mark this area as possible support and signal a probable retest of the recent highs. A failure would probably signal a test of the September low and rising 50-day moving average.
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The iShares Russell 2000 Index (NYSE:IWM) ETF has held up a little better than its large cap peers, although only by a marginal amount. IWM began a pullback towards the September breakout area, but has yet to reach this area even with some fairly persistent selling this week. It is also showing similar cracks in its armor, such as the high volume distribution days and negative divergences. These are only warnings at this point, and much will depend on how IWM deals with support in the coming few days.
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The Powershares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq:QQQQ) has another ETF that has outperformed SPY and DIA. Much like IWM, QQQQ has yet to reach the prior breakout area and rising 20-day moving average. This also happened despite the sharp selling seen on Wednesday and Thursday, and also with the huge drop by Research in Motion Limited (Nasdaq:RIMM) on Friday. The $41 area is a level to watch for possible support, which could be a decent area for buyers to step in.
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Bottom Line
Last week we mentioned that it was possible that the markets would begin digesting some of the recent rally, and at this point, this is what is occurring. The next week will be important to see how the market indexes deal with support levels and whether buyers will continue to buy the dips. There are definitely some weak spots in the charts, but price action remains in an overall uptrend. Traders should remain patient, yet cautious at these levels, as the longer term patterns are in flux with near term action. Use the Investopedia Stock Simulator to trade the stocks mentioned in this stock analysis, risk free![/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Have a Great Day!
By Joey Fundora
Joey Fundora is an independent trader located in South Florida. Joey focuses on using technical analysis techniques to uncover supply and demand imbalances in equities. To see more of his work, visit his site on Stock Chart Analysis[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Commentary: The general markets made their second trip down to test their rising 20-day moving averages in less than a month, even after tagging new recovery highs earlier this week. The Federal Reserve issued their policy statement on Wednesday afternoon, as is common; there was plenty of volatility surrounding the announcement that afternoon and through the end of the week. While the markets continue to trend higher overall, the big question facing traders is whether the markets are ready to begin a much deeper correction to the rally that began in March. Without a doubt, the bulls have had the upper hand over the past several weeks, and at this juncture, the benefit of the doubt remains with this simply being a pullback to relieve overbought conditions. However, there are cracks that continue so appear on the charts, and alert traders should be cautious moving forward.
In looking at the chart for the S&P500 as represented by the S&P 500 SPDRS (NYSE:SPY) ETF, you can see a few signs pointing at possible warning signs that some distribution is setting in. If you look at the volume, notice that the higher volume days are dominated by selling. This means, that the days with the most activity have been days where it is likely that institutions were distributing their holdings. SPY is also showing a MACD divergence which hints at waning momentum. This typically occurs as a rally gets extended, and while not a guarantee that a top is forming, it is a good warning signal that caution is in order.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
The Diamonds Trust, Series 1 (NYSE:DIA) ETF which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average also shows a similar pattern. Both ETF’s pulled back to their prior breakout areas, and slowed down near their rising 20-day moving averages. With the high volume distribution days and negative divergences as a warning, it appears that these ETFs will soon be pulling back a little further to test these levels as support. If buyers step in, then it will mark this area as possible support and signal a probable retest of the recent highs. A failure would probably signal a test of the September low and rising 50-day moving average.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
The iShares Russell 2000 Index (NYSE:IWM) ETF has held up a little better than its large cap peers, although only by a marginal amount. IWM began a pullback towards the September breakout area, but has yet to reach this area even with some fairly persistent selling this week. It is also showing similar cracks in its armor, such as the high volume distribution days and negative divergences. These are only warnings at this point, and much will depend on how IWM deals with support in the coming few days.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
The Powershares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq:QQQQ) has another ETF that has outperformed SPY and DIA. Much like IWM, QQQQ has yet to reach the prior breakout area and rising 20-day moving average. This also happened despite the sharp selling seen on Wednesday and Thursday, and also with the huge drop by Research in Motion Limited (Nasdaq:RIMM) on Friday. The $41 area is a level to watch for possible support, which could be a decent area for buyers to step in.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Bottom Line
Last week we mentioned that it was possible that the markets would begin digesting some of the recent rally, and at this point, this is what is occurring. The next week will be important to see how the market indexes deal with support levels and whether buyers will continue to buy the dips. There are definitely some weak spots in the charts, but price action remains in an overall uptrend. Traders should remain patient, yet cautious at these levels, as the longer term patterns are in flux with near term action. Use the Investopedia Stock Simulator to trade the stocks mentioned in this stock analysis, risk free![/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Have a Great Day!
By Joey Fundora
Joey Fundora is an independent trader located in South Florida. Joey focuses on using technical analysis techniques to uncover supply and demand imbalances in equities. To see more of his work, visit his site on Stock Chart Analysis[/FONT]
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
Zen lento
Forumer attivo
Qui tutti aggiornano le loro penstae, alloraquindi aggiorno pure me 
Finance & Money: La bolla intermedia della finanza, le mele sono quasi mature
Finance & Money: La bolla intermedia della finanza, le mele sono quasi mature
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Qui tutti aggiornano le loro penstae, alloraquindi aggiorno pure me
Finance & Money: La bolla intermedia della finanza, le mele sono quasi mature
Bello e condivisibile.. tentare di individuare un top quando il mercato è nelle attuali condizioni è difficile, perchè il mercato è condizionato dalle iniezioni di denaro sintetico/virtuale (non reale comunque). E' come tentare di individuare la temperatura di ogni giorno in un dato ufficio, finchè il condizionatore funziona la temperatura sarà quella prevista e prevedibile in un range di valori ben delimitato ma quando si rompe diventa molto più difficile da fare, ora il condizionatore si è rotto e hanno tentanto di aggiustarlo sebbene sia vecchio e strausato, può durare ancora per un pò ma poi si romperà di nuovo ed allora andrà assolutamente cambiato pena essere alla mercè della natura o di un condizionatore inaffidabile.
Usare il denaro sintetico/virtuale in sostituzione del reale ha i suoi vantaggi ma può essere più dannoso se abusiamo dei suoi servigi.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
f4f
翠鸟科
goood morning bbbanda
Grafico Titolo: spmib - La Borsa dei Piccoli: Analisi tecnica , grafici e Trading Online
poi mi leggo o' volume
Fernà è short .... hummm
mi devo rileggere un zakko di paggggine ...
Grafico Titolo: spmib - La Borsa dei Piccoli: Analisi tecnica , grafici e Trading Online
poi mi leggo o' volume
Fernà è short .... hummm
mi devo rileggere un zakko di paggggine ...