Bund, Tbond, hardlanding and the Fleurs subprime lending....

[gastronomo]

Saluti da Christian

Bellissimo topolino !!! Bravo a te e alla mamma

 

[gastronomo]

shortisti arrendetevi o vi faremo tutti fuori!

Ritornello:
Stay long
and strong
but
for how long ?

 

[f4f]

Ritornello:
Stay long
and strong
but
for how long ?

 

[f4f]

ciao a tutti

 

[Fleursdumal]

inconsueto contributo interessante dal fol

 

[Fleursdumal]

da segnalare oggi il -3% spagnolo , vista l'importanza che vi ha il mercato immobiliare il dato merikano deve aver fatto venire qualche cattivo pensiero a qualcheduno

 

[gipa69]

Spain's Property Stocks Drop on Concern Bubble Burst (Update2)

By Alexis Xydias and Sharon Smyth

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Spanish real-estate and bank stocks tumbled on concern the country's property boom is imploding.

Inmobiliaria Colonial SA's shares dropped 13 percent and Grupo Inmocaral SA's stock fell 11 percent, leading the slump by developers of homes and offices. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, the country's second-biggest bank, declined 2.8 percent on speculation bad loans will rise.

``This is the burst of the Spanish real-estate bubble,'' said Alberto Espelosin, a strategist at Zaragoza, Spain-based Ibercaja Gestion, which manages about $7 billion. ``Banks are exposed and have risk.''

Spanish house prices are rising at the slowest rate since 1998, a government report showed last week, following an eight- year rally fueled by foreign buyers of vacation houses and an influx of immigrants. Higher borrowing costs will probably restrict this year's increase in prices to between 3 percent and 5 percent, according to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA. That's down from about 15 percent at the peak of the market.

Spanish companies have been the top performers in the Bloomberg Europe Real Estate Index in the past four years. Inmocaral's shares jumped more than 14 times in value during the period, while Metrovacesa SA climbed more than fivefold and Inmobiliaria Colonial almost quadrupled.

Biggest Loser

Astroc Mediterraneo SA was one of four Spanish real estate companies that took advantage of the surge in property values by selling shares to the public last year. Astroc's shares in February touched a record 75 euros, more than 10 times its initial public offering price of 6.40 euros. The stock dropped 9 percent to 15.95 euros today, bringing the decline for the past five trading days to 65 percent.

There is no ``determining reason'' behind the slump, Chairman Enrique Banuelos said today at a briefing in Madrid. The Valencia-based company is ``solid and solvent,'' according to Banuelos, one of Astroc's biggest shareholders.

Some property-related companies have tried to become less dependent on the industry. Actividades de Construccion & Servicios SA and Grupo Ferrovial SA, Spain's biggest construction companies, invested in other industries including energy and airport management and disposed of property holdings in 2006.

`Warning Sign'

``This is a warning sign for the real-estate market in general and for banks that are exposed to the sector, for the risks of increased provisions,'' said Emanuele Vizzini, who oversees about $1.2 billion at Investitori Sgr in Milan.

Between 1998 and the end of 2006, the amount that Spanish banks lent for real-estate activity rose tenfold to 107 billion euros, according to the bank of Spain.

Higher interest rates ``will help the process of an orderly adjustment in the real estate market,'' said Miguel Fernandez Ordonez, Governor of the Bank of Spain, in testimony to the Spanish parliament today.

The property boom propelled Spaniards including Astroc Chairman Enrique Banuelos and Inmocaral Chairman Luis Portillo onto Forbes magazine's annual billionaire's list. Of the 20 Spaniards included in the 946 billionaires listed by Forbes, 12 made their fortunes through construction or real estate.

The average cost of a Spanish house was 2,736 euros per square meter at the end of last year, according to Sociedad de Tasacion, an adviser on Spanish real estate assets. That was up from 1,036 euros nine years earlier.

Inmocaral, Montebalito

Inmocaral's shares fell 55 cents to 4.33 euros today. Montebalito SA, a real-estate company based in Spain's Canary Islands, plummeted 3.1 euros, or 12 percent, to 21.95 euros.

Realia Business SA, a Spanish real estate company that delayed an initial public offering last year, is due to proceed with the share sale next month. No-one was immediately available to comment today on the IPO at Fomento de Construcciones & Contratas SA, a construction company that owns about half of Realia.

FCC, Spain's third-biggest builder, shed 5.05 euros, or 6.7 percent, to 70.35 euros. Acciona SA, another construction company, declined 8.75 euros, or 5.1 percent, to 163.75 euros.

Banco Bilbao declined 53 cents to 18.10 euros. Rival Santander Central Hispano SA fell 42 cents, or 3.1 percent, to 13.36 euros. Banco Sabadell SA declined 1.77 euros, or 5.1 percent, to 33.25 euros. Sabadell said today it has loans worth about 120 million euros ($163 million) linked to Astroc.

To contact the reporters on this story: Alexis Xydias in London at [email protected] ; Sharon Smyth in Madrid at [email protected] .

Last Updated: April 24, 2007 12:49 EDT

 

[f4f]

inconsueto contributo interessante dal fol

grazie

utilissimo


ringrazio anche Gipa, come non ho fatto, per il contributo su vola impl- vola storica del 16marzo

tutto ciò mi interessa assai.... e oltre a me, Masgui ....

 

[gipa69]

L'ultimo quote non esiste!

grassie

HOW LONG WILL 'THE FORCE' BE WITH US! April 20, 2007.

It’s that time of year to remind you again of the market’s annual seasonality.

In both bull and bear markets, in almost every year, the market makes most of its gains in a four to seven month period in the fall and winter months.

There is a powerful and consistent force that produces that pattern, and that force is with us in all kinds of markets and surrounding conditions. The positive force is that investors and institutions receive large chunks of extra money every fall and winter. Those chunks come in the form of dividend and capital gains distributions from mutual funds, which begin in November, from year-end contributions by employers into their employee’s 401k plans, IRAs, and profit-sharing plans, and from Christmas bonuses. They come from year-end dividends from corporations, and from private businesses that calculate their profit for the previous year in January and distribute the profit to the owners in February. They come from income-tax refunds.

A lot of that money isn’t even subject to a decision to invest it or not, but automatically goes into the stock market, including automatically re-invested dividend distributions from mutual funds and corporations, and employer contributions to 401K, IRA, and pension plans.

That extra fuel amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars, and pushes stock prices higher regardless of what is going on in the world or in the economy.

However, as April and May roll around that flow of extra money dries up. That not only deprives the market of the extra fuel that was driving it higher, but leaves it much more vulnerable to any disappointing news or profit-taking that comes along. Thus over the long-term by far most of the market’s gains have been made in its favorable seasons, and most of its serious corrections and crashes have taken place in its unfavorable seasons.

That realization is behind the generalized old Wall Street maxim ‘Sell in May and Go Away’. But my research into seasonality years ago found that the market’s seasons do not lend themselves that specifically to fixed calendar dates. Although the market moves with amazing seasonality, the favorable season can last anywhere from four to seven months, sometimes ending in April, sometimes lasting into late June. It seems to depend on how many latecomers the favorable season rally attracts even as the flow of extra chunks of seasonal money dries up.

So in 1998 I combined a short-term technical indicator, a so-called momentum-reversal indicator, with the calendar. I call the result my Seasonal Timing System, or STS.

The way it works is that when April 20 arrives, indicating the market’s favorable season may soon end, the momentum-reversal indicator takes over. If on April 20, it shows the market’s momentum has rolled over to the downside, the exit from the market’s favorable season is triggered. An investor moves to the sidelines to collect interest on cash, or at least to defensive holdings, for the unfavorable season.

However, if the momentum-reversal indicator shows short-term momentum is still positive, then the exit is delayed until the indicator triggers its next sell signal. Thus is the exit in some years delayed to as late as late June.

Back-tested over the previous 50 years in 1998 the strategy more than doubled the performance of the S&P 500 for that 50-year period. That was stunning given that 80% of mutual funds and money-management firms fail to even equal the performance of the S&P over the long-term.

I introduced it in my 1999 book, Riding the Bear – How to Prosper in the Coming Bear Market. Used in real time in my newsletter, and by others since, it has had similar results, even through the devastating 2000-2002 bear market. (In bear markets, any so-called bear-market rallies tend to take place in the market’s favorable seasons each year, while most of the devastating losses still take place in the unfavorable seasons). The entry in 2002 even caught the beginning of the new bull market in October, 2002.

Playing the market’s seasonal patterns owes much of its success to being mechanical. Thus it avoids getting caught up in the usually wrong ‘crowd psychology’ that prevails at market turning points. By that I mean that there is a natural tendency for investors to be fearful after unfavorable season declines have produced market bottoms, usually in the fall, that have them more interested in selling than buying. Conversely, crowd psychology tends to be confident in the spring after the typical rally in the market’s favorable season has cast their fears away, even though the favorable season is usually drawing to a close.

It’s very difficult to outsmart the market’s seasonality. I know that because I also have a non-seasonal market-timing strategy in my newsletter, and like the majority of mutual funds and money-management firms, it beats the performance of the S&P 500 some years, under-performs it other years, and struggles to equal its performance over the long-term, let alone doubling it.

April 20 has arrived. We have certainly not seen the end of upside momentum yet – a new high for the Dow this week. But it is time to keep the market’s seasonality in mind.

 

[f4f]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^VIX

bingo !!!

ringrazio anche QuickSilver

adesso non ho scuse.... me tocca da laurà ...