Bund, Tbond, hardlanding and the Fleurs subprime lending....
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
Leo's
Forumer storico
ditropan ha scritto:Buongiorno a tutta la bbanda.
Di ritorno dalla Slovenija oggi ci si rimette a battagliare come sempre !
Spero abbiate passato tutti una serena pasqua.
Tornando al cornutone AUD/USD questi vedo che non mollano e vogliono far vedere i sorci verdi a qualcuno ... situazione analoga al corn di qualche mese fà ... ma per adesso sono in piena fase speculativa. Ogni notizia è buona per far pompare l'aud a quanto pare ...
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FOREX - AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR HITS 17-YEAR HIGH - APRIL 10, 2007
SYDNEY, Apr 10, 2007 (AsiaPulse via COMTEX) -- The Australian dollar has risen to its highest level in almost 17 years, after gaining almost two thirds of a US cent in morning trade.
The currency was buying 82.32 US cents before noon - its best level since October 1990 - having risen 0.63 points from 81.75 at the start of the local trading session today.
It had closed at 81.69 US cents on Thursday.
The rise is being driven by expectations that interest rates will increase in Australia next month, after the Reserve Bank of Australia holds its next monthly board meeting.
This has prompted `carry trade' activity in the market.
The term describes a trading strategy whereby investors borrow funds in low interest rates bearing currencies, such as Japanese yen, to buy higher yielding currencies such as Australian dollars.
Traders said takeover activity surrounding Rinker Group Ltd and Coles Group Ltd was also helping the local currency higher.
(AAP)
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Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1176182022azz1.jpg
Ciao Andrea, anche io Slo!
Bohinj, Bled e dintorni
Leo's
Forumer storico
dan24 ha scritto:buongiorno...ieri avrei potuto chiudere l'euro/yen sul pullback a 159..invece...mi sono addormentato per tutto il giorno e mi sono scordato di mettere un ordine...va be...dati adesso altri 20.000 pezzi a 159,70....
entrato di nuovo con 102000 pezzi su Aud/usd a 0,8232
siamo quasi a 160.00, alla faccia del matematico post del piano di sotto ..
feliceanima
Forumer attivo
giorno a tutti sempre rialzista euro yen ci sarebbe sempre il solito certificato con leva altissima prossimo allo stop da usare
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Welcome Back Mr. Bond”
“The lagged impact of global central rate hikes, of which there have been roughly 200 in the past two years, have contributed to a slowing of global manufacturing. The slowdown is also apparent in world semiconductor sales. Further, house price appreciation, mortgage lending, and construction orders are slowing in the Eurozone. Bank lending growth for housing is starting slow in Japan and it looks like housing starts have peaked. It's the same kind of story in Australia. Yet, the central banks are still hawkish, and Nancy points out that there's still a risk of the BoE and ECB tightening further. Also, Japanese vehicle sales are slowing because of skepticism about wage growth. Sub prime problems continue to hit various financial companies – yesterday it was M&T Bank and New Century. The weakness in housing means you should underweight financials. Francois believes investor sentiment has become too bullish and financials have grown to be 20% of the S&P index (much larger than its share of the economy). No other segment has held onto its heavyweight title as long as financials have and it probably won't stay there.”
. . . Ed Hyman, International Strategy & Investment (ISI)
We met Ed Hyman in the 1970s when he was at the venerable firm of C.J. Lawrence. Little did we know that he would become Institutional Investor’s #1 ranked Wall Street economist for each of the past 26 years. Over those years we have often recommended ISI’s mutual funds, which have made our clients a lot of money. This morning we reprise Ed’s comments because we think they are right to the point given last week’s bond market action.
Indeed, the chart of the week has to be the bond market since T’Bonds recorded a decided price breakdown last week (read: higher interest rates), as can be seen in the following chart.
30-Year T’bond
(includes 10-DMA, 50-DMA, and 200-DMA)
Source: Reuters Bridge Station.
Notice that the 30-year Treasury bond’s price has broken below its 10-day moving average (DMA), its 50-DMA, and its 200-DMA, and in the process has traced out what appears to be a massive head-and-shoulders “top” formation, implying higher interest rates. For a finance-based economy this is NOT an unimportant point, for the mortgages of choice a few years ago were those “fancy” ones that reset their interest rate after two to three years. The T-bond’s breakdown was clearly caused by last Friday’s much stronger than expected employment report, which showed non-farm payrolls rising by an eye-popping 180,000 (the median forecast was +120,000), while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4% as things continue to get “curiouser and curiouser.”
We have often used this “curiouser and curiouser” phrase, from Lewis Carroll’s book “Through the Looking Glass,” because we have been confused about whether the economy was going to slow into recession, slow into a muddle, or actually reaccelerate. Until last Friday it appeared as if the economy’s recent statistics were slowing, but that trend changed with the employment figures. Cynics will suggest that the employment numbers are a lagging indicator, which is true, but tax receipts are not. And tax receipts continue to track at high single-digit levels, which is inconsistent with 2% GDP growth.
Also worth noting is that the Federal Reserve “follows” the bond market when setting the Fed Funds interest rate rather than “leading” it. If that historical precedent holds true, it suggests the Fed is unlikely to lower interest rates anytime soon. Ladies and gentlemen, to a Wall Street community imbibed with lower interest rates, steady interest rates, or worse yet higher interest rates, would be a shock. Not only would higher interest rates have negative implication for the economy, but for our stock market regression models, P/E ratios, and our weaker U.S. dollar strategy. So what are we to do?
Well, for the past few years we have recommended that investment portfolios have a position in First Trust/Four Corners Senior Floating Rate Income Trust II (FCT/$18.52) since it benefits from higher interest rates. For those thinking FCT is too tame an investment, consider this – at year-end 2005 we pounded the table on FCT when it was selling south $17 and yielding north of 8%. Since then, on a total return basis, these shares have returned roughly 17% and in the process beaten the returns of most indices. We think FCT still deserves a weighting in portfolios as it continues to trade at a discount to net asset value (NAV) and yields 8.2%. As a hedge to FCT (in the event of lower interest rates), investors should consider an equal dollar-weighting in international REITs. International REITs were highlighted in a recent Business Week article titled “The Wisdom of Brackets” (from the 3/26/07 issue). As can be seen in the article’s “decision tree,” international REITs “win” the risk-adjusted investment derby. As stated in the article, “Global REITS win (it) all. Real estate investment trusts, well developed in the U.S., are a relatively new vehicle everywhere else. They allow owners to securitize their holdings and raise funds for new projects and give investors stock-like ownership in a portfolio of properties. U.S. REITs have been on a roll for six years, and bargains are few. The global real estate boom, on the other hand, is just getting started.”
Closed-end funds playing to this international REIT theme include: 6%-yielding INGClarion (IGR/$22.65), 5%-yielding C&S Worldwide (RWF/$27.13), RMR Asia Pacific (RAP/$25.55), and the streetTRACKS DJWilshire International Real Estate ETF (RWX/$68.69). Open-end mutual funds that “foot” with this theme may be obtained from our retail liaison desk (x72520). And while such a paired strategy (long FCT and international REITs) makes sense in the current confusing stock-market/interest-rate environment, there are many other stock investments that make sense to us because there is always a bull market somewhere.
Indeed, for five years we have unwaveringly stated that the secular bull market in precious/base-metals is alive and well. Accordingly, last week gold registered an upside breakout in the charts, rendering a near-term price objective of $690/ounce, and bettering that, the reaction high of $732/ounce. While we own numerous precious metal and base metal stocks, recently we have been using a smaller, more nimble, gold fund named OCM Gold Fund (OCMGX/$18.67). Conveniently, given gold’s upside breakout, there is a conference call with OCM’s portfolio manager this Thursday at 4:10 p.m. (800.414.2828; pass code 174727). Yet while gold’s 1.8% weekly rise was impressive, our metal of choice, namely nickel, rose 15% on the week. We like nickel because not only is it used in the stainless steel counter-tops for the McDonald’s (MCD/$45.78) of the world being built in China/India, but also the fact that the normal car uses two pounds of nickel, while the hybrid car uses 35 to 40 pounds (read: batteries). Another bullish theme we like is “trash,” especially the nascent trash problems in emerging countries. For example, China has a burgeoning garbage problem, for as per capita incomes rise, people consume more “stuff” and consequently generate more garbage. Moreover, China has averred that it wants to generate 30% of its electricity from non-fossil fuels in the not too distant future. Enter Outperform-rated Covanta (CVA/$22.87). Simply stated, Covanta takes solid waste, burns it, and in the process produces “dirt cheap” electricity. While not a large player in China just yet, China seems like a logical extension for Covanta.
Another name we embrace, namely 2.4%-yielding Johnson & Johnson (JNJ/$61.55/Strong Buy), was added to the Focus List last week. This is consistent with our strategy of buying the “flops” in fundamentally sound companies. Indeed, JNJ’s shares have declined roughly 15% from their October 2006 peak-price, leaving them trading in-line with the S&P 500 P/E multiple, which historically has been an attractive buy point. JNJ’s free-cash-flow yield of 6.6% (historical average has been 4.0%) is the highest in 17 years and therefore should also provide a foundation of value. Johnson & Johnson’s free cash flow yield is superior to the group’s 5.3% yield, as well as the group’s 17-year average of 3.4%. Further, the December purchase of Pfizer’s (PFE/$25.84/Market Perform) consumer business should help protect the company from patent losses in its drug business and the technological obsolescence of its medical products.
The call for this week: We have yet another interest rate play to hopefully take advantage of the current sub-prime debacle where the “throw the baby out with the bath water” environment has produced what appears to be an underpriced stock. Quadra Realty (QRR/$13.77) is a “busted” IPO that is trading below its recent IPO price and is rated Outperform by our research correspondent Credit Suisse. However, this story is a discussion for another time. As for the stock market, the S&P 500 broke out to the upside last Thursday and looks poised to test the reaction highs around 1460. Hopefully that will help our long trading position in the SPDR Financial Index (XLF/35.76).
April 9, 2007
“The lagged impact of global central rate hikes, of which there have been roughly 200 in the past two years, have contributed to a slowing of global manufacturing. The slowdown is also apparent in world semiconductor sales. Further, house price appreciation, mortgage lending, and construction orders are slowing in the Eurozone. Bank lending growth for housing is starting slow in Japan and it looks like housing starts have peaked. It's the same kind of story in Australia. Yet, the central banks are still hawkish, and Nancy points out that there's still a risk of the BoE and ECB tightening further. Also, Japanese vehicle sales are slowing because of skepticism about wage growth. Sub prime problems continue to hit various financial companies – yesterday it was M&T Bank and New Century. The weakness in housing means you should underweight financials. Francois believes investor sentiment has become too bullish and financials have grown to be 20% of the S&P index (much larger than its share of the economy). No other segment has held onto its heavyweight title as long as financials have and it probably won't stay there.”
. . . Ed Hyman, International Strategy & Investment (ISI)
We met Ed Hyman in the 1970s when he was at the venerable firm of C.J. Lawrence. Little did we know that he would become Institutional Investor’s #1 ranked Wall Street economist for each of the past 26 years. Over those years we have often recommended ISI’s mutual funds, which have made our clients a lot of money. This morning we reprise Ed’s comments because we think they are right to the point given last week’s bond market action.
Indeed, the chart of the week has to be the bond market since T’Bonds recorded a decided price breakdown last week (read: higher interest rates), as can be seen in the following chart.
30-Year T’bond
(includes 10-DMA, 50-DMA, and 200-DMA)
Source: Reuters Bridge Station.
Notice that the 30-year Treasury bond’s price has broken below its 10-day moving average (DMA), its 50-DMA, and its 200-DMA, and in the process has traced out what appears to be a massive head-and-shoulders “top” formation, implying higher interest rates. For a finance-based economy this is NOT an unimportant point, for the mortgages of choice a few years ago were those “fancy” ones that reset their interest rate after two to three years. The T-bond’s breakdown was clearly caused by last Friday’s much stronger than expected employment report, which showed non-farm payrolls rising by an eye-popping 180,000 (the median forecast was +120,000), while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4% as things continue to get “curiouser and curiouser.”
We have often used this “curiouser and curiouser” phrase, from Lewis Carroll’s book “Through the Looking Glass,” because we have been confused about whether the economy was going to slow into recession, slow into a muddle, or actually reaccelerate. Until last Friday it appeared as if the economy’s recent statistics were slowing, but that trend changed with the employment figures. Cynics will suggest that the employment numbers are a lagging indicator, which is true, but tax receipts are not. And tax receipts continue to track at high single-digit levels, which is inconsistent with 2% GDP growth.
Also worth noting is that the Federal Reserve “follows” the bond market when setting the Fed Funds interest rate rather than “leading” it. If that historical precedent holds true, it suggests the Fed is unlikely to lower interest rates anytime soon. Ladies and gentlemen, to a Wall Street community imbibed with lower interest rates, steady interest rates, or worse yet higher interest rates, would be a shock. Not only would higher interest rates have negative implication for the economy, but for our stock market regression models, P/E ratios, and our weaker U.S. dollar strategy. So what are we to do?
Well, for the past few years we have recommended that investment portfolios have a position in First Trust/Four Corners Senior Floating Rate Income Trust II (FCT/$18.52) since it benefits from higher interest rates. For those thinking FCT is too tame an investment, consider this – at year-end 2005 we pounded the table on FCT when it was selling south $17 and yielding north of 8%. Since then, on a total return basis, these shares have returned roughly 17% and in the process beaten the returns of most indices. We think FCT still deserves a weighting in portfolios as it continues to trade at a discount to net asset value (NAV) and yields 8.2%. As a hedge to FCT (in the event of lower interest rates), investors should consider an equal dollar-weighting in international REITs. International REITs were highlighted in a recent Business Week article titled “The Wisdom of Brackets” (from the 3/26/07 issue). As can be seen in the article’s “decision tree,” international REITs “win” the risk-adjusted investment derby. As stated in the article, “Global REITS win (it) all. Real estate investment trusts, well developed in the U.S., are a relatively new vehicle everywhere else. They allow owners to securitize their holdings and raise funds for new projects and give investors stock-like ownership in a portfolio of properties. U.S. REITs have been on a roll for six years, and bargains are few. The global real estate boom, on the other hand, is just getting started.”
Closed-end funds playing to this international REIT theme include: 6%-yielding INGClarion (IGR/$22.65), 5%-yielding C&S Worldwide (RWF/$27.13), RMR Asia Pacific (RAP/$25.55), and the streetTRACKS DJWilshire International Real Estate ETF (RWX/$68.69). Open-end mutual funds that “foot” with this theme may be obtained from our retail liaison desk (x72520). And while such a paired strategy (long FCT and international REITs) makes sense in the current confusing stock-market/interest-rate environment, there are many other stock investments that make sense to us because there is always a bull market somewhere.
Indeed, for five years we have unwaveringly stated that the secular bull market in precious/base-metals is alive and well. Accordingly, last week gold registered an upside breakout in the charts, rendering a near-term price objective of $690/ounce, and bettering that, the reaction high of $732/ounce. While we own numerous precious metal and base metal stocks, recently we have been using a smaller, more nimble, gold fund named OCM Gold Fund (OCMGX/$18.67). Conveniently, given gold’s upside breakout, there is a conference call with OCM’s portfolio manager this Thursday at 4:10 p.m. (800.414.2828; pass code 174727). Yet while gold’s 1.8% weekly rise was impressive, our metal of choice, namely nickel, rose 15% on the week. We like nickel because not only is it used in the stainless steel counter-tops for the McDonald’s (MCD/$45.78) of the world being built in China/India, but also the fact that the normal car uses two pounds of nickel, while the hybrid car uses 35 to 40 pounds (read: batteries). Another bullish theme we like is “trash,” especially the nascent trash problems in emerging countries. For example, China has a burgeoning garbage problem, for as per capita incomes rise, people consume more “stuff” and consequently generate more garbage. Moreover, China has averred that it wants to generate 30% of its electricity from non-fossil fuels in the not too distant future. Enter Outperform-rated Covanta (CVA/$22.87). Simply stated, Covanta takes solid waste, burns it, and in the process produces “dirt cheap” electricity. While not a large player in China just yet, China seems like a logical extension for Covanta.
Another name we embrace, namely 2.4%-yielding Johnson & Johnson (JNJ/$61.55/Strong Buy), was added to the Focus List last week. This is consistent with our strategy of buying the “flops” in fundamentally sound companies. Indeed, JNJ’s shares have declined roughly 15% from their October 2006 peak-price, leaving them trading in-line with the S&P 500 P/E multiple, which historically has been an attractive buy point. JNJ’s free-cash-flow yield of 6.6% (historical average has been 4.0%) is the highest in 17 years and therefore should also provide a foundation of value. Johnson & Johnson’s free cash flow yield is superior to the group’s 5.3% yield, as well as the group’s 17-year average of 3.4%. Further, the December purchase of Pfizer’s (PFE/$25.84/Market Perform) consumer business should help protect the company from patent losses in its drug business and the technological obsolescence of its medical products.
The call for this week: We have yet another interest rate play to hopefully take advantage of the current sub-prime debacle where the “throw the baby out with the bath water” environment has produced what appears to be an underpriced stock. Quadra Realty (QRR/$13.77) is a “busted” IPO that is trading below its recent IPO price and is rated Outperform by our research correspondent Credit Suisse. However, this story is a discussion for another time. As for the stock market, the S&P 500 broke out to the upside last Thursday and looks poised to test the reaction highs around 1460. Hopefully that will help our long trading position in the SPDR Financial Index (XLF/35.76).
April 9, 2007
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
BOJ Holds Rate at 0.5% Amid Price Slump, U.S. Concern (Update3)
By Mayumi Otsuma
April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged for a second month after consumer prices fell and recent data signaled U.S. economic growth may slow.
Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his policy board colleagues voted unanimously to hold the key overnight lending rate at 0.5 percent, the lowest among major economies, the bank said in a statement today in Tokyo. The decision was expected by all 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Fukui will probably give the bank's latest view on the outlook for the U.S. economy and Japan's inflation when he speaks this afternoon for the first time since the consumer price report. Confidence among Japan's largest manufacturers slipped from a two-year high on concern a U.S. slowdown may hurt exports, the central bank's quarterly Tankan business survey showed last week.
``There's still a pretty big chance for a rate hike later this year if the central bank can confirm Japan's growth is supported by demand at home, even if the U.S. economy deteriorates,'' said Ryutaro Kono, chief economist at BNP Paribas Securities Japan Ltd. ``We expect the bank to act in the fourth quarter.''
The yen traded at 159.87 per euro at 3:22 p.m. in Tokyo, after falling to a record 159.88. Japan's currency was at 119.10 against the dollar compared with 119.03 before the policy decision was announced.
Moderate Expansion
The central bank said the economy is ``expanding moderately,'' led by exports and business investment, leaving its monthly economic assessment unchanged today. Consumer prices will rise in the long term, the bank said, while acknowledging inflation will stay around zero ``in the short run.''
The bank raised the key rate from near zero last July, its first increase in six years, and doubled it in February. Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto said last week that borrowing costs need to be raised further in line with the economy's expansion.
Of 16 Tokyo-based economists surveyed separately, seven said the bank will probably raise rates in August or September, and five said it will wait until the fourth quarter. Only one predicted an increase as early as July and three said the bank will pause until next year.
The Tankan survey showed large manufacturers plan to boost spending by 2.5 percent in the year that began April 1, more than economists expected.
``Even with U.S. growth decelerating, we expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates in August or September, given the brisk capital investment plans shown in the Tankan,'' said Seiji Shiraishi, chief economist at HSBC Securities in Tokyo. He said demand from Asia is helping to ease the effect of a U.S. slowdown.
Slower U.S. Growth
Growth in the U.S. will slow to 2.1 percent this year from 3.4 percent in 2006, the World Bank predicted in its semi-annual report last week. East Asia, excluding Japan and the Indian subcontinent, will expand 7.3 percent this year, down from 8.1 percent, the Washington-based lender said.
U.S. new home sales fell to the lowest level in almost seven years in February. Subprime borrowers, typically people with limited or poor credit histories, fell behind on their mortgage payments at the highest rate in four years last quarter.
``It's still unclear how the issue of subprime loans will be settled,'' Nobuo Kuroyanagi, chairman of the Japanese Bankers Association and chief executive of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., said last month. ``U.S. growth has a big influence on the global economy, and we're monitoring it very closely.''
Deputy Governor Muto said the U.S. economy will probably achieve a soft landing, with growth returning to potential even if it temporarily slows.
Consumer Prices
Japan's core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, declined 0.1 percent in February from a year earlier, the first drop since last April. The likelihood prices will keep falling will make it harder for the bank to raise rates in the first half of 2007, analysts say.
``There is very little evidence of the upward pressure on prices that we would normally expect to see at this advanced stage of the economic cycle,'' said Ben Eldred, a Japan strategist at Daiwa Securities Group Inc. in London. ``The chance of a rate rise over summer now appears close to zero.''
Some economists said there's a chance the bank will raise rates before a July Upper House election should it become confident that the U.S. economy will pick up later in the year.
``The worst of the downturn is over for the U.S. economy and we can anticipate foreign demand for Japanese exports to gather steam later this year,'' said Hiromichi Shirakawa, a former BOJ official and now chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. The Bank of Japan may raise rates as early as May or June, he said.
Demand may be picking up at home, too. Spending among Japanese households rose in the first two months of 2007 after declining every month last year. Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota told reporters today that consumption is showing ``brighter signs,'' though wages need to increase more.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at [email protected]
Last Updated: April 10, 2007 02:25 EDT
By Mayumi Otsuma
April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged for a second month after consumer prices fell and recent data signaled U.S. economic growth may slow.
Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his policy board colleagues voted unanimously to hold the key overnight lending rate at 0.5 percent, the lowest among major economies, the bank said in a statement today in Tokyo. The decision was expected by all 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Fukui will probably give the bank's latest view on the outlook for the U.S. economy and Japan's inflation when he speaks this afternoon for the first time since the consumer price report. Confidence among Japan's largest manufacturers slipped from a two-year high on concern a U.S. slowdown may hurt exports, the central bank's quarterly Tankan business survey showed last week.
``There's still a pretty big chance for a rate hike later this year if the central bank can confirm Japan's growth is supported by demand at home, even if the U.S. economy deteriorates,'' said Ryutaro Kono, chief economist at BNP Paribas Securities Japan Ltd. ``We expect the bank to act in the fourth quarter.''
The yen traded at 159.87 per euro at 3:22 p.m. in Tokyo, after falling to a record 159.88. Japan's currency was at 119.10 against the dollar compared with 119.03 before the policy decision was announced.
Moderate Expansion
The central bank said the economy is ``expanding moderately,'' led by exports and business investment, leaving its monthly economic assessment unchanged today. Consumer prices will rise in the long term, the bank said, while acknowledging inflation will stay around zero ``in the short run.''
The bank raised the key rate from near zero last July, its first increase in six years, and doubled it in February. Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto said last week that borrowing costs need to be raised further in line with the economy's expansion.
Of 16 Tokyo-based economists surveyed separately, seven said the bank will probably raise rates in August or September, and five said it will wait until the fourth quarter. Only one predicted an increase as early as July and three said the bank will pause until next year.
The Tankan survey showed large manufacturers plan to boost spending by 2.5 percent in the year that began April 1, more than economists expected.
``Even with U.S. growth decelerating, we expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates in August or September, given the brisk capital investment plans shown in the Tankan,'' said Seiji Shiraishi, chief economist at HSBC Securities in Tokyo. He said demand from Asia is helping to ease the effect of a U.S. slowdown.
Slower U.S. Growth
Growth in the U.S. will slow to 2.1 percent this year from 3.4 percent in 2006, the World Bank predicted in its semi-annual report last week. East Asia, excluding Japan and the Indian subcontinent, will expand 7.3 percent this year, down from 8.1 percent, the Washington-based lender said.
U.S. new home sales fell to the lowest level in almost seven years in February. Subprime borrowers, typically people with limited or poor credit histories, fell behind on their mortgage payments at the highest rate in four years last quarter.
``It's still unclear how the issue of subprime loans will be settled,'' Nobuo Kuroyanagi, chairman of the Japanese Bankers Association and chief executive of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., said last month. ``U.S. growth has a big influence on the global economy, and we're monitoring it very closely.''
Deputy Governor Muto said the U.S. economy will probably achieve a soft landing, with growth returning to potential even if it temporarily slows.
Consumer Prices
Japan's core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, declined 0.1 percent in February from a year earlier, the first drop since last April. The likelihood prices will keep falling will make it harder for the bank to raise rates in the first half of 2007, analysts say.
``There is very little evidence of the upward pressure on prices that we would normally expect to see at this advanced stage of the economic cycle,'' said Ben Eldred, a Japan strategist at Daiwa Securities Group Inc. in London. ``The chance of a rate rise over summer now appears close to zero.''
Some economists said there's a chance the bank will raise rates before a July Upper House election should it become confident that the U.S. economy will pick up later in the year.
``The worst of the downturn is over for the U.S. economy and we can anticipate foreign demand for Japanese exports to gather steam later this year,'' said Hiromichi Shirakawa, a former BOJ official and now chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. The Bank of Japan may raise rates as early as May or June, he said.
Demand may be picking up at home, too. Spending among Japanese households rose in the first two months of 2007 after declining every month last year. Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota told reporters today that consumption is showing ``brighter signs,'' though wages need to increase more.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at [email protected]
Last Updated: April 10, 2007 02:25 EDT
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
China's Trade Surplus Unexpectedly Narrowed in March (Update2)
By Nipa Piboontanasawat
April 10 (Bloomberg) -- China's trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in March as exports rose at the slowest pace in five years.
The gap was 38 percent smaller than a year earlier at $6.87 billion, the customs bureau said on its Web site. That's the least in 13 months and less than half the $20 billion median estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Chinese businesses rushed to sell products overseas in January and February, concerned at protectionist sentiment abroad and government moves to slow exports, said Wang Qing, an economist at Bank of America Corp. in Hong Kong. ``It's more important to look at the first quarter as a whole, which is a really large trade surplus,'' said Wang.
China wants to curb the trade surplus, which rose to a record $177.5 billion last year, by easing import restrictions and reducing export incentives. The gap has stoked trade frictions that include two complaints by the U.S. to the World Trade Organization, due to be filed today.
Exports gained 6.9 percent to $83.4 billion in March and imports climbed 14.5 percent to $76.6 billion. For the first three months, the surplus was $46.44 billion, nearly double the gap a year earlier.
U.S. lawmakers charge that China keeps its currency undervalued, protects piracy and subsidizes products sold overseas. The Commerce Department last month levied duties on coated-paper imports from China and the government is to file two complaints aimed at stopping piracy of movies, music, software and books.
U.S. Trade
China's trade surplus with the U.S. fell to $9.5 billion in March from $12.3 billion in February, the customs bureau said, while that with Europe declined to $6.4 billion from $11.8 billion.
One of the U.S. complaints is that China's laws are too lenient on pirates of movie or music disks. The other is that foreign book and movie sales are restricted.
China's commerce ministry has called the coated-paper tariffs ``unacceptable'' and said it reserved the right to take ``necessary'' action. The U.S. trade deficit with China jumped to a record $232.5 billion last year.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at [email protected]
Last Updated: April 10, 2007 01:05 EDT
By Nipa Piboontanasawat
April 10 (Bloomberg) -- China's trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in March as exports rose at the slowest pace in five years.
The gap was 38 percent smaller than a year earlier at $6.87 billion, the customs bureau said on its Web site. That's the least in 13 months and less than half the $20 billion median estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Chinese businesses rushed to sell products overseas in January and February, concerned at protectionist sentiment abroad and government moves to slow exports, said Wang Qing, an economist at Bank of America Corp. in Hong Kong. ``It's more important to look at the first quarter as a whole, which is a really large trade surplus,'' said Wang.
China wants to curb the trade surplus, which rose to a record $177.5 billion last year, by easing import restrictions and reducing export incentives. The gap has stoked trade frictions that include two complaints by the U.S. to the World Trade Organization, due to be filed today.
Exports gained 6.9 percent to $83.4 billion in March and imports climbed 14.5 percent to $76.6 billion. For the first three months, the surplus was $46.44 billion, nearly double the gap a year earlier.
U.S. lawmakers charge that China keeps its currency undervalued, protects piracy and subsidizes products sold overseas. The Commerce Department last month levied duties on coated-paper imports from China and the government is to file two complaints aimed at stopping piracy of movies, music, software and books.
U.S. Trade
China's trade surplus with the U.S. fell to $9.5 billion in March from $12.3 billion in February, the customs bureau said, while that with Europe declined to $6.4 billion from $11.8 billion.
One of the U.S. complaints is that China's laws are too lenient on pirates of movie or music disks. The other is that foreign book and movie sales are restricted.
China's commerce ministry has called the coated-paper tariffs ``unacceptable'' and said it reserved the right to take ``necessary'' action. The U.S. trade deficit with China jumped to a record $232.5 billion last year.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at [email protected]
Last Updated: April 10, 2007 01:05 EDT
dan24
Forumer storico
leo-kondor ha scritto:siamo quasi a 160.00, alla faccia del matematico post del piano di sotto ..
sono a 200K media 159,45
119K aud/Usd 0,8232
sono fiducioso più sull'aud/usd...ma 160 sono il primo step...da dove dovrebbe rifiatare...se no triplico a 161
grrr potevo chiudere un eurostox ma ero fuori...
ricapitoliamo
210K euro/yen 159,464
187K aud/usd 0,82352
3 eurostox ultimo dato a 4217 media 4204 conto di chiuderne almeno uno entro oggi
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