Bund, Tbond, hardlanding and the Fleurs subprime lending....

[gipa69]

Japan's Machine Orders Fall More-Than-Expected 5.2% (Update3)

By Lily Nonomiya

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's machinery orders fell a more-than-expected 5.2 percent in February, highlighting concern among manufacturers that export growth may slow this year.

Non-government orders, excluding shipping and utilities, declined to 1.04 trillion yen ($8.7 billion) from a month earlier, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.4 percent drop.

Fujitsu Ltd. and NEC Electronics Corp. plan to cut spending by almost a third this fiscal year to prepare for a slump in orders for chips used in cameras and game consoles. Orders made by non-manfacturers rose, signaling service companies including Tokyo Electric Power Co. and Central Japan Railway Co. may drive business investment in the world's second-largest economy.

``Capital investment will remain sluggish in the first half of this fiscal year because spending by manufacturers is losing steam,'' said Hiroaki Muto, a senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``However, spending by non- manufacturers will probably offset such a slowdown and keep supporting the country's business investment overall.''

The yen traded at 118.93 per dollar at 11:01 a.m. in Tokyo compared with 119.11 before the report was published. The yield on Japan's 10-year bond fell 2.5 basis points to 1.655 percent.

Orders for electronic machinery such as semiconductor testing equipment led the declines, falling 29.7 percent, the biggest drop in almost nine years.

Fujitsu, NEC Electronics

Fujitsu, Japan's fifth-largest chipmaker, said April 4 it will reduce spending on semiconductors about 30 percent this fiscal year because of slowing demand for chips used in consumer electronics. NEC Electronics will trim spending at the same rate.

Machine orders by non-manufacturers increased 5.3 percent, led by utilities companies, the government said.

Tokyo Electric Power, Asia's biggest utility, will boost investment over three years starting this month to build power plants and expand electricity transmission lines. It plans to increase spending 23 percent this year. Central Japan Railway, also known as JR West, said last month it will increase spending the most in eight years to replenish old cars and boost safety.

``Growth, and with it employment and business investment, are clearly rotating away from the manufacturing sector toward the non-manufacturing sector,'' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. ``The recent Tankan survey highlights this.''

Tankan Survey

The Bank of Japan's Tankan business survey last week showed the nation's largest service providers, or those with more than 1 billion yen in capital, plan to boost spending 3.1 percent this year. An increase would mark the third straight year of gains, the longest since 1991. Manufacturers said they'll increase outlays 2.5 percent, faster than economists estimated.

``We saw strong spending estimates from the Tankan, but that could change depending on the outlook for exports,'' said Junichi Makino, a senior economist at Daiwa Research Institute in Tokyo. ``Last year's spending plans were driven by exporters so a stall in shipments is going to have a significant impact on capital spending in 2007.''

Japan's export growth slowed to 9.7 percent in February, about half the pace of January, and the prospect of a global slowdown caused manufacturers to reduce production for a second month in February, the first back-to-back drop in a year.

Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his policy board colleagues kept borrowing costs on hold for a second month yesterday, maintaining the key overnight call rate at 0.5 percent. Fukui remained optimistic about the outlook for spending and overseas demand.

BOJ's Fukui

Spending plans in the Tankan ``were solid given that they were estimates made at the start of the fiscal year and followed double-digit spending increases in the previous year,'' Fukui told reporters after the rates decision. Capital spending projections tend to be conservative in the March survey and are upgraded throughout the year.

Other sections of today's report signaled global demand remains intact. Orders for Japanese machinery overseas rose 24 percent in February, more than double the pace in January, alleviating concern global growth is stalling, said Jesper Koll, chief economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in Tokyo.

Machinery orders are a leading indicator of spending as measured by gross domestic product. Economists say orders are placed three to six months before they're used to build factories, product lines or equipment.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lily Nonomiya in Tokyo at [email protected]

Last Updated: April 10, 2007 22:10 EDT

 

[gipa69]

U.K. March Retail Sales Increase Most in 11 Months, BRC Says

By Jennifer Ryan

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. retail sales rose in March at the fastest annual pace in 11 months as Britons spent more money on clothing and home improvement items, the British Retail Consortium said.

Revenue at stores open at least 12 months rose 3.9 percent form a year earlier, compared with an increase of 3.3 percent in February, the group, which represents 80 percent of Britain's retailers, said today in London. The survey covers the five weeks through March 31.

The report adds to evidence that consumers, whose homes gained about 10 percent in value last year, are keeping up spending even after three interest-rate increases by the Bank of England. Confidence among shoppers rose to the highest in four months in March, a separate report by Nationwide Building Society showed on April 4.

The figures ``do highlight a continued level of resilience in the market,'' Helen Dickinson, head of retail at KPMG, the sponsor of the survey, said in the report.

Clothing sales rose on ``warmer, sunnier weather,'' led by items for women, the group said. Weather conditions also encouraged gains in garden and outdoor home-improvement goods.

Ted Baker, whose clothes were worn by James Bond in ``Casino Royale,'' said March 21 profit rose 12 percent as sales rose and the company won more licensing deals. London-based Kingfisher said March 29 it restored U.K. profit growth in the fiscal second half after halting a two-year sales drop at B&Q, the country's largest home-improvement chain.

Britons borrowed the most against the value of their homes in almost three years in the fourth quarter, a sign that surging property prices are fuelling consumer spending.

Rate Discussions

Policy makers discussed last month whether consumer spending has started to slow and said that it was too early to tell, minutes of the March 7-8 meeting show. Details of their discussions for the April 5 decision will be released April 18.

Retail sales data has been mixed. Sales slumped in January by the most since 2004, then rebounded in February, according to Office for National Statistics data.

A separate report published today by Grant Thornton showed the share of all U.K. listed retailers issuing positive profit reports in the first quarter rose to 44 percent from 33 percent last year. Six profit warnings were issued in the period, down from nine a year ago.

Consumers may still have to endure further gains in borrowing costs. The Bank of England's Feb. 14 forecasts show that a fourth rate-rise may be needed to bring inflation, which unexpectedly quickened to 2.8 percent in February, back down to the 2 percent target.

BOE Concern

``The bank will be concerned that current robust demand will boost retailers' confidence in their pricing power and lead them to try and push through more price increases to boost their margins,'' Howard Archer, an economist at Global Insight in London, said in a research note yesterday. ``A strong BRC survey would make a further 25 basis point interest rate hike to 5.5 percent seem ever more likely in May.''

Interest-rate futures suggest traders expect one more increase. The implied yield on the June contract was 5.71 percent at 5:40 p.m. yesterday in London. The contract settles to the three-month London interbank offered rate for the pound, which averaged about 15 basis points more than the central bank benchmark for the past decade.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at [email protected]

Last Updated: April 10, 2007 19:01 EDT

 

[gipa69]

Today, all global markets are correlated. By the day's close, selloffs in Asia are transmitted to Europe and then to the U.S., or vice versa. For years, investors in Hong Kong were not concerned with happenings in Tokyo, since their markets did not have correlated economic fundamentals. But now, as the day breaks in Hong Kong, people look to Tokyo, one hour ahead of Hong Kong, for guidance on that day's trading in Hong Kong.

If Fed Chairman Bernanke makes a positive statement, Wall Street rallies. The next day, if he makes a negative statement about, say, inflation, Wall Street tumbles. And the rest of the world follows suit. The high correlation of unrelated markets reflects nervous investor behavior. And when investors are nervous, day-to-day actions are driven by news flow. A proliferation of momentum-following young fund managers has also fueled herd psychology, which is why short-term market moves have been violent.

The high sensitivity to news flow and the record-breaking volume that accompanied the global selloff on February 27 of this year suggest we could be seeing a temporary major peak in stock market indexes. Although markets have recovered some of February's losses, the rebounds in global bourses have occurred on moderate and declining volume. This indicates weak buying interest universally, and markets have recovered more from a lack of sellers rather than from a rise in eager buyers. We think the lack of volume strongly suggests markets may have to retest their recent lows, once sellers reappear on negative news flow.

Given the accumulation of excesses during the up-phase of a thematic run, negative news will increasingly dominate the headlines at market peaks. This is why, eventually, all investment cycles revert to fundamentals. Bears prevail, and the herd instinct, the fear about how excesses might impact an economy, then drives the market downturn into a bust. Are we in such a situation currently with the credit bubble?

My view - While the fact that stock markets are currently rallying on weaker volume is a worrying factor, I put more importance on the actual chart action which remains positive. Some further choppiness would not be too surprising as investors remain nervous but as long as indices sustain their moves above the mid-March lows we can probably give the upside the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Leo's]

hanno cominciato...che mi vanno in gain la notte le posizioni sul forex...e la mattina..me li ritrovo in loss...ma annate a fankulo...

addio


a dopI forse...se c'e' il Rekkia...vado di là

Non potresti (e potrei...) mettere un ordine fermo a un livello che ritieni raggiungibile, così la notte te lo prende e l'indomani lo trovi eseguito
piuttosto, che livelli hai per chiudere audusd e euryen, che mi sono stufato? poi, per legge di murphy, apppena chiudiamo magari in pari o con 10 pips, arriva il crollo epocale e ci mangiamo il fegato...

 

[quicksilver]

OT

vi funziona il sito di www.google.it ?
che strano....

 

[Fernando'S]

a me funziona tutto....
ancora..

 

[gastronomo]

Gipa, chi è che dice quello che hai postato poco fa ?

 

[Fleursdumal]

Bonjour a tout les bondaroles

Most Americans Fear Recession in the Next 12 Months, Poll Finds

By Matthew Benjamin

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Most Americans expect a recession within a year and disapprove of President George W. Bush's handling of the economy even though the unemployment rate is at a five-year low, a new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll found.

Six in 10 who were surveyed predicted a recession, similar to the 64 percent who anticipated the economy would contract in a December 2000 poll by the Los Angeles Times three months before the last decline. In the current survey, 71 percent of those earning less than $40,000 said they expect a recession compared with about half for those making more than $100,000.

``We're living on borrowed time,'' said Andrew Herring, 43, a chemical engineering professor at the Colorado School of Mines in Golden, Colorado, who took part in the survey. ``We spend ridiculous amounts of money on the war and now we have issues with the subprime housing market,'' said Herring, a Democrat.

Fifty-seven percent of those surveyed disapproved of Bush's handling of the economy and 38 percent approved, his worst showing in eight months. Nonetheless, 57 percent said the economy is doing well. That was down 11 points from January.

The Department of Labor reported on April 6 that the economy added 180,000 new jobs in March and the unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent, matching October's five-year low. On the minus side, gasoline prices have risen 29 percent since January and the housing market has cooled.

Sixty-four percent of those polled said their own finances are very or fairly secure compared with 35 percent who described them as shaky.

Pessimism

``People tend to be pretty optimistic about their own situation, but when it comes to the larger economy they're much more pessimistic,'' said Karlyn Bowman, a polling expert at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. ``The public's just in a very sour mood because Iraq continues to cast a pall over everything.''

Americans are split on Bush's call to make permanent the $2 trillion in tax cuts he has pushed through Congress. About four in 10 favor extending the cuts when they expire in 2010, slightly more than those who oppose that idea.

Sybil Haley, 72, a retired railroad worker in Hornell, New York, who supported the cuts, has changed her mind. ``It seems like they don't help middle-income people very much,'' she said.

Fewer than four in 10 respondents earning less than $40,000 a year favor extending the cuts compared with slightly more than half of those in the over-$100,000 group, the poll showed.

Taxes, Economy

``I certainly don't want to pay any more taxes,'' said Bill Shanks, 64, a Republican pastor in New Orleans who considers himself middle class and says his finances are very secure. ``When taxes are cut, the economy is stimulated.''

Almost three in five said the Federal Reserve should hold interest rates steady, twice the number who said the Fed should cut rates to stimulate the economy. Only 6 percent called on the Fed to raise rates to stymie inflation.

The poll also asked who is mostly to blame for the wave of defaults among so-called subprime mortgages that are extended to borrowers with poor or limited credit history. Due to rising interest rates, the adjustable-rate mortgages threaten many homeowners with foreclosure. Fewer than three in 10 respondents said borrowers were mostly to blame and almost four in 10 blamed the lenders.

``These borrowers are looking to get a piece of the pie and they just got in over their heads,'' said Maryanne McCauley, 74, a retired secretary in Ozone Park, New York.

Government Intervention

One in five surveyed blamed government regulators for the subprime crisis. Half of those polled said the government should intervene to assist low-income borrowers facing foreclosure. Among those who earn $100,000 or more, 36 percent called for the government to take action and 63 percent of those earning less than $40,000 favored government action.

The poll of 1,373 adults was taken April 5-9 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Most Americans remain sanguine about home prices, the poll showed, with more than half expecting homes in their neighborhood to hold their value over the next six months. Twice as many respondents said home prices will increase as those who predicted a decline. A majority said slowing home sales nationwide will hurt the economy.

Black Americans are significantly more pessimistic about the economy and disapproving of Bush's handling of it than whites, the poll showed. More than four of five blacks said they disapprove of the job Bush is doing on the economy, compared with 53 percent of the white respondents. About four in 10 black Americans said the economy is doing well, compared with six in 10 whites. More than 70 percent of blacks expect a recession within a year compared with 58 percent of whites.

``African Americans continue to be very strongly Democratic as a voting block, and that polarization is even more evident when things are bad,'' said Nathan Gonzales, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan Washington newsletter. ``Their opinions are even more affected by things like the war in Iraq and Hurricane Katrina.''

 

[Fleursdumal]

CAMBI: EURO STABILE, ATTESA PER VERBALI FEDERAL RESERVE
(ANSA) - ROMA, 11 APR - Euro stabile sul dollaro, a ridosso
dei massimi biennali toccati ieri (a 1,3455) in una seduta
caratterizzata dall' attesa per la diffusione dei verbali dell'
ultima seduta del FOMC della Federal Reserve, da cui potrebbero
venire ulteriori indicazioni circa lo scenario dei tassi d'
interesse negli Usa. Per il resto, domani la maggioranza degli
analisti interpellati da Bloomberg si aspetta che la Bce
mantenga invariato il livello del costo del denaro. In base alla
dinamica dei futures, in ogni caso, il mercato dà per probabili
altri due rialzi del tasso di riferimento nell' Eurozona.
Oltre a questo per oggi è prevista un' altra raffica di
comunicazioni da parte dei massimi esponenti della Fed, a
cominciare dal presidente, Ben Bernanke; già dagli interventi
di ieri è emerso che la banca centrale Usa continua ad essere
preoccupata per la dinamica dell' inflazione.
Da segnalare il rialzo della sterlina, salita a 1,9775 contro
dollaro da 1,9728 precedenti dopo che il Financial Times ha
riportato che il Tesoro britannico starebbe progettando di
consentire ai profitti delle imprese conseguiti all' estero di
rientrare nel Regno Unito senza pagare tasse. Una misura analoga
era stata adottata negli Usa in base all' Homeland Investment
Act ed aveva fatto rialzare la quotazione del dollaro in
particolare sullo yen.

 

[dan24]

CAMBI: EURO STABILE, ATTESA PER VERBALI FEDERAL RESERVE
(ANSA) - ROMA, 11 APR - Euro stabile sul dollaro, a ridosso
dei massimi biennali toccati ieri (a 1,3455) in una seduta
caratterizzata dall' attesa per la diffusione dei verbali dell'
ultima seduta del FOMC della Federal Reserve, da cui potrebbero
venire ulteriori indicazioni circa lo scenario dei tassi d'
interesse negli Usa. Per il resto, domani la maggioranza degli
analisti interpellati da Bloomberg si aspetta che la Bce
mantenga invariato il livello del costo del denaro. In base alla
dinamica dei futures, in ogni caso, il mercato dà per probabili
altri due rialzi del tasso di riferimento nell' Eurozona.
Oltre a questo per oggi è prevista un' altra raffica di
comunicazioni da parte dei massimi esponenti della Fed, a
cominciare dal presidente, Ben Bernanke; già dagli interventi
di ieri è emerso che la banca centrale Usa continua ad essere
preoccupata per la dinamica dell' inflazione.
Da segnalare il rialzo della sterlina, salita a 1,9775 contro
dollaro da 1,9728 precedenti dopo che il Financial Times ha
riportato che il Tesoro britannico starebbe progettando di
consentire ai profitti delle imprese conseguiti all' estero di
rientrare nel Regno Unito senza pagare tasse. Una misura analoga
era stata adottata negli Usa in base all' Homeland Investment
Act ed aveva fatto rialzare la quotazione del dollaro in
particolare sullo yen.

FLEU???