Bund, TBronx, il fiume giallo, una carryola di debiti (VM91)
- Creatore Discussione gastronomo
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Te lo già spiegato Giomf....
è un mercato domestico non accessibile agli investitori esteri e la possibilità (anche se ancora limitata) di investire su altri mercati per gli investitori domestici ne amplifica i movimenti.
Molto più importante seguire l'andamento delle h shares ad Hong kong che sono diventati il leader di momentum.....
Quella discesa potrebbe impattare un pò i consumi domestici ma il loro peso sul pil è attualmente limitato e certezze di contagio su altre voci del pil al momento non ci sono..
Chinese stocks plunged Monday following government efforts to cool a market boom, recording their biggest one-day fall since a February drop that triggered a global sell-off.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 8.3 percent to 3,670.40, falling for the third time in four sessions since the government raised a tax on trading last week. The index had dropped 2.7 percent Friday. The Shenzhen Composite Index for China's smaller second market fell 7.9 percent to 1,039.90.
It was Shanghai's biggest decline since Feb. 27, when the main-market composite index slid 8.8 percent, triggering selloffs in Hong Kong, New York and London.
"There is the risk that this snowballs into a crash. Sentiment is so fevered that a bubble could burst," said Claire Innes, an economist in London with the consulting firm Global Insight.
But most other Asian markets shrugged off Monday's plunge. Five markets -- Australia, Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea and the Philippines -- rose to record highs. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index edged up 0.08 percent, while Hong Kong's benchmark index rose 0.6 percent.
The impact of the Chinese decline on markets abroad was expected to be limited because Beijing keeps its markets largely isolated from global financial flows. Most Chinese shares are off-limits to foreign investors and financial controls prevent most Chinese from investing abroad.
The Chinese currency, the yuan, fell slightly against the dollar on Monday after rising throughout May.
Beijing is trying to cool a boom that by last week had pushed up Chinese stocks more than 50 percent since the start of the year. The rally has attracted millions of first-time investors who are pouring their savings into the market.
Government financial newspapers tried to reassure investors with front-page editorials Monday that said the tax hike on stock trades -- from 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent -- would be good for the market by encouraging longer-term investment in better stocks.
But blue chips were hammered as shares in about 1,000 of the 1,400 companies on the main "A"-share market fell by the maximum daily limit of 10 percent. They included Tsingtao Brewery and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., also known as Sinopec, two of China's most prominent companies.
Beijing has given no sign how much it wants prices to fall, but economists say Chinese leaders might consider 20 to 25 percent the right level to restore order to the market.
Drops in Chinese prices last week caused brief declines in markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong and elsewhere.
Analysts have been warning of a possible Chinese correction for weeks, reducing the element of surprise for investors abroad.
Philippine shares appeared to be benefiting from the sell-off in China as some foreign investors shift funds to elsewhere in the region, said Lawrence de Leon, an analyst at Accord Capital Equities Inc. in Manila.
"A lot of money is going out of the China equities and are moving into other Asian markets, among them the Philippines," he said.
Even with the declines since last week, the Shanghai index is still up more than 37 percent since the start of the year, after rising more than 130 percent in 2006. It has dropped 15 percent since last Tuesday's all-time high of 4,334.92.
The surge has been driven by strong corporate profits and an influx of money from Chinese investors, who have opened millions of new trading accounts and are dipping into theirs savings and mortgaging homes to buy stocks.
Authorities have warned that the new money could be fueling a bubble and they say novices could be hurt by a sharp fall in prices.
Regulators are facing conflicting pressures as they try to develop China's markets into a source of financing for economic reform while also trying to discourage speculation, said Global Insight's Innes.
To create a more stable market, Beijing will have to encourage more pension funds and other institutional investors to get into the market and ease barriers to foreigners owning shares, she said.
Otherwise, she said, "you're going to keep seeing these cycles because it's fueled by all this cheap cash flooding around."
è un mercato domestico non accessibile agli investitori esteri e la possibilità (anche se ancora limitata) di investire su altri mercati per gli investitori domestici ne amplifica i movimenti.
Molto più importante seguire l'andamento delle h shares ad Hong kong che sono diventati il leader di momentum.....
Quella discesa potrebbe impattare un pò i consumi domestici ma il loro peso sul pil è attualmente limitato e certezze di contagio su altre voci del pil al momento non ci sono..
Chinese stocks plunged Monday following government efforts to cool a market boom, recording their biggest one-day fall since a February drop that triggered a global sell-off.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 8.3 percent to 3,670.40, falling for the third time in four sessions since the government raised a tax on trading last week. The index had dropped 2.7 percent Friday. The Shenzhen Composite Index for China's smaller second market fell 7.9 percent to 1,039.90.
It was Shanghai's biggest decline since Feb. 27, when the main-market composite index slid 8.8 percent, triggering selloffs in Hong Kong, New York and London.
"There is the risk that this snowballs into a crash. Sentiment is so fevered that a bubble could burst," said Claire Innes, an economist in London with the consulting firm Global Insight.
But most other Asian markets shrugged off Monday's plunge. Five markets -- Australia, Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea and the Philippines -- rose to record highs. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index edged up 0.08 percent, while Hong Kong's benchmark index rose 0.6 percent.
The impact of the Chinese decline on markets abroad was expected to be limited because Beijing keeps its markets largely isolated from global financial flows. Most Chinese shares are off-limits to foreign investors and financial controls prevent most Chinese from investing abroad.
The Chinese currency, the yuan, fell slightly against the dollar on Monday after rising throughout May.
Beijing is trying to cool a boom that by last week had pushed up Chinese stocks more than 50 percent since the start of the year. The rally has attracted millions of first-time investors who are pouring their savings into the market.
Government financial newspapers tried to reassure investors with front-page editorials Monday that said the tax hike on stock trades -- from 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent -- would be good for the market by encouraging longer-term investment in better stocks.
But blue chips were hammered as shares in about 1,000 of the 1,400 companies on the main "A"-share market fell by the maximum daily limit of 10 percent. They included Tsingtao Brewery and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., also known as Sinopec, two of China's most prominent companies.
Beijing has given no sign how much it wants prices to fall, but economists say Chinese leaders might consider 20 to 25 percent the right level to restore order to the market.
Drops in Chinese prices last week caused brief declines in markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong and elsewhere.
Analysts have been warning of a possible Chinese correction for weeks, reducing the element of surprise for investors abroad.
Philippine shares appeared to be benefiting from the sell-off in China as some foreign investors shift funds to elsewhere in the region, said Lawrence de Leon, an analyst at Accord Capital Equities Inc. in Manila.
"A lot of money is going out of the China equities and are moving into other Asian markets, among them the Philippines," he said.
Even with the declines since last week, the Shanghai index is still up more than 37 percent since the start of the year, after rising more than 130 percent in 2006. It has dropped 15 percent since last Tuesday's all-time high of 4,334.92.
The surge has been driven by strong corporate profits and an influx of money from Chinese investors, who have opened millions of new trading accounts and are dipping into theirs savings and mortgaging homes to buy stocks.
Authorities have warned that the new money could be fueling a bubble and they say novices could be hurt by a sharp fall in prices.
Regulators are facing conflicting pressures as they try to develop China's markets into a source of financing for economic reform while also trying to discourage speculation, said Global Insight's Innes.
To create a more stable market, Beijing will have to encourage more pension funds and other institutional investors to get into the market and ease barriers to foreigners owning shares, she said.
Otherwise, she said, "you're going to keep seeing these cycles because it's fueled by all this cheap cash flooding around."
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
“Sisyphus is the son of Aeolus (the king of Thessaly) and Enarete, and founder of Corinth. He instituted, among others, the Isthmian Games. According to tradition he was sly and evil and used to way-lay travelers and murder them. He betrayed the secrets of the gods and chained the god of death (Thanatos) so the deceased could not reach the underworld. Hades himself intervened and Sisyphus was severely punished. In the realm of the dead, he is forced to roll a block of stone against a steep hill, which tumbles back down when he reaches the top. Then the whole process starts again, lasting all eternity.”
...Micha F. Lindemans, “Encyclopedia Mythica”
Indeed, in mythology, Sisyphus is required for eternity to roll a huge stone to the top of a hill only to have it plunge back down just as it nears the crest. There is no doubt many investors have felt the same frustration with the S&P 500 (SPX) 1527 that Sisyphus must have experienced as that index tried to better its all-time closing high. The first attempt was back in February, the second in April, for most of May it was the same story, but last Wednesday “Sisyphus” succeeded when the SPX (1536.34) reversed its early morning loss on another Chinese crashette (- 6.9%) and vaulted 12 points higher to close at 1530.23. That morning my firm had commented to participants that the déjà vu morning-downer was a “gift” on a trading basis (read: buy it) because the markets never discount the same thing twice and February 27, 2007 (- 416 DJIA points) was the discounting mechanism for a Chinese crash.
The “driver” for Sisyphus’ success seems to be the building sense that what we have experienced is the fabled mid-cycle economic slowdown with the economy now set to reaccelerate. That sense was bolstered by recent reports on consumer spending (+4.4% annualized), the ISM Manufacturing Index (+55.0 in May), Industrial Production (+0.7%), Consumer Confidence (108.0 in May vs. 106.3 in April), Consumer Sentiment (88.3 in May vs. 87.1 in April), Construction Spending (+0.1), and then there was Friday’s employment report. Said figures were stronger than expected with nonfarm payrolls expanding by 157,000 (130,000E). Yet, all is not as it seems, for part of the jobs strength is attributable to the government’s “birth/death” model used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate the gains/losses in jobs from the launching, or demise, of businesses. In April, the birth/death model “guessed” that 317,000 jobs were added, including 49,000 construction jobs. In May, it assumed 203,000 jobs were added with a concurrent addition of 40,000 construction jobs. While I don’t understand the entrails of this voodoo model, I do find it sketchy that a phantom 89,000 construction jobs have miraculously been added to the payrolls over the past two months given the reports out of the housing industry.
As my firm's real estate team notes, “that data took markets by surprise because it contrasts sharply with recent anecdotes from public builders regarding trends subsequent to March as most have made comments that April [and May] was/were largely worse than March.” Moreover, the fallout from the housing debacle appears to be spreading with CBS news reporting a 110% increase in home foreclosures for 2006 at the New Jersey shore. For comparison, the invaluable Minyanville notes, “nationwide foreclosures jumped 65% from April 2006 to April 2007 on problems that have plagued the nationwide housing market – oversupply, lack of demand and ARM loan resetting.”
Loan resetting indeed because the most popular mortgages two-to-three years ago were the adjustable rate kind with “teaser” interest rates that are just now starting to reset. This becomes increasingly important in a rising interest rate environment. And, almost on cue, the 10-year benchmark Treasury Bond’s yield (TNX) broke out to the upside last week as can be seen in the chart below. I have repeatedly commented on this potential event ever since the TNX broke above its downtrend line on May 17, 2007, which had been intact since July of 2006. Consequently, not only has the yield broken above that downtrend line, but also above the “yield yelp” high of last January (4.91%).
I have deemed the TNX chart as probably THE most important chart around since higher interest rates have far-reaching ramifications. First, higher rates offer more competition for stocks. Second, history suggests that PE ratios tend to contract as interest rates rise. Third, various quantitative models used for equities have to reset for lower equity valuations as rates rise. Fourth, low interest rates have been the underpinning of the weaker dollar, and as rates have firmed, so has the U.S. dollar. This is not an unimportant point for it has been the weaker dollar that has largely provided the “bounce” to aggregate earnings and the economy. Clearly, there are more implications, but that is a discussion for another time.
Nonetheless, so far the equity markets have ignored the “rate ratchet” causing one frustrated Wall Street wag to lament, “Hey Jeff, I am afraid of this market because it is overvalued, over-extended and overdue for a correction, yet I have to play the long side since my performance has to keep up with ‘the Jones,’ the Dow Jones that is, so what am I to do?!” As stated in last week’s verbal strategy comments, our friend Barry Ritholtz, eponymous captain of Ritholtz Research & Analytics, asked, and answered, this same question in a report titled, “How to Play the Long Side Safely.” In the report he cited a few parameters: “1) Identify strong sectors with good money flow; 2) Look for stocks within those sectors with desirable risk/reward characteristics; 3) Screen for stocks with the best technical, fundamental and earnings potential; 4) Find stocks that are near good entry points; 5) Avoid ‘runaway momentum’ names; and 6) Look for stop loss protection that is a reasonable downside away.”
To these points, we have been using Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) since $60/share. We have also used Quadra Reality (QRR), which is rated Outperform by my firm's research correspondent Credit Suisse. Since I have elaborated on these stories in past missives, I won’t reiterate them this morning. What I have for you today are a couple of new risk-adjusted ideas. First is MeadWestvaco (MWV) that Credit Suisse issued a trading alert on last week stating, “We are establishing a long position in MWV shares. The catalyst for this trade is expected updates on the timberland sales and the $200 million annual cost savings initiatives over the next month.” However, as noted by Glenview Capital’s founder Larry Robbins at the recent Ira W. Sohn conference, there is more to the MWV story than that. To wit, while the land business is only 4% of EBITDA, Glenview thinks it is 21% of the company’s value and should be monetized. It calculates that the 1.1 million acres is worth at least $2.4 billion. Further, it thinks the specialty chemical business should be sold and the office business merged. If done, Glenview believes valuations could reach $47. Given its view that the downside is roughly $30/share renders an upside risk/reward ratio of 2.4 to 1. With a 2.6% dividend yield, we find MeadWestvaco intriguing.
Another investment idea from our universe is 3% yielding, Outperform rated, Flagstar Bancorp (FBC). With $15.4 billion in assets, Flagstar is the largest savings and loan institution in Michigan. It is also one of the nation’s top-30 mortgage originators. As such, the consternations in Michigan have left these shares down some 54% from their March 2004 high and selling near book value. Yet, Flagstar does not have much sub-prime exposure, and while the mortgage business is still a focus, Flagstar is using the cash flow from the mortgage operations to expand its retail branch banking network. Indeed, FBC has opened numerous new branches in excellent locations, which is consistent with the history of this savvy management team.
The call for this week: Hedge funds are about as fully invested as they ever get. Meanwhile, net shorts in the S&P 500 e-mini fell to their lowest level since March and as interest rates rise margin debt is substantially above its 20-year average. Moreover, history shows that "booms" tend to last a little over a year from when the yield curve inverts before things become dicey; May is month 15. Still, few of the telltale signs of a market top are in place... and don't look now, but last week Lowry's Buying Power Index crossed above Lowry's Selling Pressure Index for the first time in 21 months (read: bullish). While I don't understand it due to my firm's valuation concerns, we continue to be pretty "long" in the investment account and are moving our stop-loss points up on our long trading positions like the SPDR Financial (XLF), the PS Aerospace & Defense (PPA), the PS Water Resources (PHO), and the Japanese Yen Currency Shares (FXY). This week, Sisyphus goes long.
...Micha F. Lindemans, “Encyclopedia Mythica”
Indeed, in mythology, Sisyphus is required for eternity to roll a huge stone to the top of a hill only to have it plunge back down just as it nears the crest. There is no doubt many investors have felt the same frustration with the S&P 500 (SPX) 1527 that Sisyphus must have experienced as that index tried to better its all-time closing high. The first attempt was back in February, the second in April, for most of May it was the same story, but last Wednesday “Sisyphus” succeeded when the SPX (1536.34) reversed its early morning loss on another Chinese crashette (- 6.9%) and vaulted 12 points higher to close at 1530.23. That morning my firm had commented to participants that the déjà vu morning-downer was a “gift” on a trading basis (read: buy it) because the markets never discount the same thing twice and February 27, 2007 (- 416 DJIA points) was the discounting mechanism for a Chinese crash.
The “driver” for Sisyphus’ success seems to be the building sense that what we have experienced is the fabled mid-cycle economic slowdown with the economy now set to reaccelerate. That sense was bolstered by recent reports on consumer spending (+4.4% annualized), the ISM Manufacturing Index (+55.0 in May), Industrial Production (+0.7%), Consumer Confidence (108.0 in May vs. 106.3 in April), Consumer Sentiment (88.3 in May vs. 87.1 in April), Construction Spending (+0.1), and then there was Friday’s employment report. Said figures were stronger than expected with nonfarm payrolls expanding by 157,000 (130,000E). Yet, all is not as it seems, for part of the jobs strength is attributable to the government’s “birth/death” model used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate the gains/losses in jobs from the launching, or demise, of businesses. In April, the birth/death model “guessed” that 317,000 jobs were added, including 49,000 construction jobs. In May, it assumed 203,000 jobs were added with a concurrent addition of 40,000 construction jobs. While I don’t understand the entrails of this voodoo model, I do find it sketchy that a phantom 89,000 construction jobs have miraculously been added to the payrolls over the past two months given the reports out of the housing industry.
As my firm's real estate team notes, “that data took markets by surprise because it contrasts sharply with recent anecdotes from public builders regarding trends subsequent to March as most have made comments that April [and May] was/were largely worse than March.” Moreover, the fallout from the housing debacle appears to be spreading with CBS news reporting a 110% increase in home foreclosures for 2006 at the New Jersey shore. For comparison, the invaluable Minyanville notes, “nationwide foreclosures jumped 65% from April 2006 to April 2007 on problems that have plagued the nationwide housing market – oversupply, lack of demand and ARM loan resetting.”
Loan resetting indeed because the most popular mortgages two-to-three years ago were the adjustable rate kind with “teaser” interest rates that are just now starting to reset. This becomes increasingly important in a rising interest rate environment. And, almost on cue, the 10-year benchmark Treasury Bond’s yield (TNX) broke out to the upside last week as can be seen in the chart below. I have repeatedly commented on this potential event ever since the TNX broke above its downtrend line on May 17, 2007, which had been intact since July of 2006. Consequently, not only has the yield broken above that downtrend line, but also above the “yield yelp” high of last January (4.91%).
I have deemed the TNX chart as probably THE most important chart around since higher interest rates have far-reaching ramifications. First, higher rates offer more competition for stocks. Second, history suggests that PE ratios tend to contract as interest rates rise. Third, various quantitative models used for equities have to reset for lower equity valuations as rates rise. Fourth, low interest rates have been the underpinning of the weaker dollar, and as rates have firmed, so has the U.S. dollar. This is not an unimportant point for it has been the weaker dollar that has largely provided the “bounce” to aggregate earnings and the economy. Clearly, there are more implications, but that is a discussion for another time.
Nonetheless, so far the equity markets have ignored the “rate ratchet” causing one frustrated Wall Street wag to lament, “Hey Jeff, I am afraid of this market because it is overvalued, over-extended and overdue for a correction, yet I have to play the long side since my performance has to keep up with ‘the Jones,’ the Dow Jones that is, so what am I to do?!” As stated in last week’s verbal strategy comments, our friend Barry Ritholtz, eponymous captain of Ritholtz Research & Analytics, asked, and answered, this same question in a report titled, “How to Play the Long Side Safely.” In the report he cited a few parameters: “1) Identify strong sectors with good money flow; 2) Look for stocks within those sectors with desirable risk/reward characteristics; 3) Screen for stocks with the best technical, fundamental and earnings potential; 4) Find stocks that are near good entry points; 5) Avoid ‘runaway momentum’ names; and 6) Look for stop loss protection that is a reasonable downside away.”
To these points, we have been using Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) since $60/share. We have also used Quadra Reality (QRR), which is rated Outperform by my firm's research correspondent Credit Suisse. Since I have elaborated on these stories in past missives, I won’t reiterate them this morning. What I have for you today are a couple of new risk-adjusted ideas. First is MeadWestvaco (MWV) that Credit Suisse issued a trading alert on last week stating, “We are establishing a long position in MWV shares. The catalyst for this trade is expected updates on the timberland sales and the $200 million annual cost savings initiatives over the next month.” However, as noted by Glenview Capital’s founder Larry Robbins at the recent Ira W. Sohn conference, there is more to the MWV story than that. To wit, while the land business is only 4% of EBITDA, Glenview thinks it is 21% of the company’s value and should be monetized. It calculates that the 1.1 million acres is worth at least $2.4 billion. Further, it thinks the specialty chemical business should be sold and the office business merged. If done, Glenview believes valuations could reach $47. Given its view that the downside is roughly $30/share renders an upside risk/reward ratio of 2.4 to 1. With a 2.6% dividend yield, we find MeadWestvaco intriguing.
Another investment idea from our universe is 3% yielding, Outperform rated, Flagstar Bancorp (FBC). With $15.4 billion in assets, Flagstar is the largest savings and loan institution in Michigan. It is also one of the nation’s top-30 mortgage originators. As such, the consternations in Michigan have left these shares down some 54% from their March 2004 high and selling near book value. Yet, Flagstar does not have much sub-prime exposure, and while the mortgage business is still a focus, Flagstar is using the cash flow from the mortgage operations to expand its retail branch banking network. Indeed, FBC has opened numerous new branches in excellent locations, which is consistent with the history of this savvy management team.
The call for this week: Hedge funds are about as fully invested as they ever get. Meanwhile, net shorts in the S&P 500 e-mini fell to their lowest level since March and as interest rates rise margin debt is substantially above its 20-year average. Moreover, history shows that "booms" tend to last a little over a year from when the yield curve inverts before things become dicey; May is month 15. Still, few of the telltale signs of a market top are in place... and don't look now, but last week Lowry's Buying Power Index crossed above Lowry's Selling Pressure Index for the first time in 21 months (read: bullish). While I don't understand it due to my firm's valuation concerns, we continue to be pretty "long" in the investment account and are moving our stop-loss points up on our long trading positions like the SPDR Financial (XLF), the PS Aerospace & Defense (PPA), the PS Water Resources (PHO), and the Japanese Yen Currency Shares (FXY). This week, Sisyphus goes long.
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
gengiskan ha scritto:
Bho...
eppure Mao lo aveva detto chiaro...
"quando te lo mettlono in quel posto, non ti agitale
...potlesti fale il lolo gioco"
cin cin
gastronomo
Forumer storico
leo-kondor ha scritto:quindi cosa ci serve per scendere?
inoltre, siamo sicuri che però quando la cina fara pià 5% al giorno (e non meno 5%) noi non saliremo?
Ottima osservazione
... secondo me si viaggia su un enorme materasso ad acqua, e fino a che non decidono che è ora di sgonfiarlo si sta appollaiati sull'ennesimo inutile megatrend. Qualche anno fa era quello dei bond, oggi è quello dell'azionario (vedi hedge fund, private equity etc.) - non mi stupirei se un giorno arrivasse una bella bastonata: tutti sono bravi (non noi, gli addetti ai lavori) a fare analisi carine, interessanti, divertenti sul perche ed il per come delle cose, poi quando il trend si gira tutti si affrettano a dire "ma io l'avevo detto"... Vedremo. Certo, se i tassi salgono troppo, è come dire, nella situazione attuale, che abbiamo una Ferrari (l'azionario) che sfreccia a 200 all'ora con le ruote sempre più sgonfie (i tassi); nel frattempo c'è un sacco di leva, debito, small cap con quotazioni senza senso, il rischio che la liquidità del sistema sparisca dalla tavola in un istante, ci sono fondi pensione che investono in alternative investment dimenticando il loro mandato, ossia un incremento prodente e graduale delle masse per garantire il futuro ai propri aderenti (cos'è il rischio ? non pervenuto...). Ripeto, vediamo che combinano, ma a forza di scricchiolii la baracca, prima o poi, si incricca 
dan24
Forumer storico
leo-kondor ha scritto:quindi cosa ci serve per scendere?
inoltre, siamo sicuri che però quando la cina fara pià 5% al giorno (e non meno 5%) noi non saliremo?
oramai si vede che non frega naaa segaaa della Cina a nessuno...anzi lo storno è più che salutare per tutti...cmq...cosa serve per scendere?
DATI SULL'INFLAZIONE IN AUMENTO SOSTANZIOSO....
a quel punto la Fed si ritroverà a non poter neanche paventare un taglio....entrando in un circolo vizioso..di immobilismo forzato..o addirittura di aumento dei tassi..a quel punto verrà giù il castello..fatto di svalutazione dello Usd.....
altra possibilità....in europa ci iniziamo a svegliare...e diciamo basta alla rivalutazione dell'euro...facendo strizzare i carry...(che però da quel che vedo son in giro per il mondo che fanno i bagorsi..su AUd ecc ecc..)...ma parecchio..del tipo un bel crollo dell'euro/yen di 15-20 figure
dan24
Forumer storico
leo-kondor ha scritto:quindi cosa ci serve per scendere?
inoltre, siamo sicuri che però quando la cina fara pià 5% al giorno (e non meno 5%) noi non saliremo?
oramai si vede che non frega naaa segaaa della Cina a nessuno...anzi lo storno è più che salutare per tutti...cmq...cosa serve per scendere?
DATI SULL'INFLAZIONE IN AUMENTO SOSTANZIOSO....
a quel punto la Fed si ritroverà a non poter neanche paventare un taglio....entrando in un circolo vizioso..di immobilismo forzato..o addirittura di aumento dei tassi..a quel punto verrà giù il castello..fatto di svalutazione dello Usd.....
altra possibilità....in europa ci iniziamo a svegliare...e diciamo basta alla rivalutazione dell'euro...facendo strizzare i carry...(che però da quel che vedo son in giro per il mondo che fanno i bagorsi..su AUd ecc ecc..)...ma parecchio..del tipo un bel crollo dell'euro/yen di 15-20 figure