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Per gli elliottisti... questo blog l'avevo trovato su questo stesso forum mi pare... ora non ricordo più esattamente dove 
Il post mi sembra interessante, che ne pensate?
http://tinyurl.com/s9xn5
June 13
tuesday update
SHORT TERM: getting nastier out there.
Overnight the foreign markets sold off with Asia down 2 - 4%, and Europe down 2% as we opened. Our stock indices tried to rally several times today, and each attempt was met with more selling. At the close the SPX/DOW/NDX were down about 1%, and the NDX only marginally lower. The index that failed to make new highs in April, with the others, and has led the market lower for two months now, was only marginally lower.
The NAZ went through support pivot 2094 and is currently holding 2062. At the low of the day 2067, the NAZ had lost 13.1% of it's value. The comparative correction in early 2005 bottomed when the NAZ had lost 13.3% of it's value. There are two lower EW pivots mentioned last night: NAZ 2042 and 2026. NAZ 2026 represents a total retracement of the entire advance from October 2005 to the recent April high. The NDX completed that total retracement today by dropping below NDX 1515. The month of June opened on a positive note, but everyday since the 1st has had a lower close. From an OEW perspective this market is pushing the limits of its bull market scenario. It needs to hold NAZ 2000+. If it retraces back to April 2005, NAZ 1890, I would not see any reason to remain bullish. Let's see what unfolds in the coming days.
INTERMEDIATE TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bullish, but wavering
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tuesday morning
Just a quick update. The foreign markets were hit with some serious selling last nite: Asia down 2% - 4%, and Europe down 2% at the open. Our market is trying to stabilize the situation with an early morning rally that is weakening. Bernanke's speech might have an impact later in the day. Monitoring the NAZ as it deals with 2094 and 2064. Best to your day!
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Nasdaq Composite in Review (NAZ)
All during this bull market, when the going got rough I turned to the NAZ to determine what truely is going on within the marketplace. I know most technicians/traders follow the SPX, and some the NDX, as those indices provide numerous tradeable derivatives, and they prefer a direct correlation in their trading strategies. As for me, the very fact that there are so many derivatives apparently makes both of these indices, at times, too volatile. Making their wave structures incomprehensible at times, creating aberrations in the overall Elliott Wave structure. Therefore, my less volatile, and less tradeable index of choice in the NAZ. It's waves have been crystal clear, and it's momentum cycles perfectly aligned since the October 2002 bottom.
Reviewing the bull market in the NAZ, using the weekly chart in the photo section. It's wave pattern as you can see is very clean. It doesn't look anything like the DOW, which has had it's share of reversals. It looked very similar to the NDX, until that index had a fifth wave failure in April, and then fell off the table, taking the rest of the market with it. Yet, it still looks very similar to everyone's bellweather SPX. From my OEW viewpoint, all three indices: DOW/NDX/SPX vibrate at an harmonic frequency in tune with the market, but the NAZ is the market. So what is the NAZ displaying now.
In October 2002 the bull market began with Primary wave I, and Primary wave II declined 17.6% into the March 2003 lows. By January 2004 Primary wave III had completed, and Primary wave IV declined 18.7% into the August 2004 lows. Notice they both declined about 18%! By January 2005 Major wave 1 had completed, and Major wave 2 declined 13.3% into the April 2005 lows. Recently, in April 2006 Intermediate wave i completed, with Intermediate wave ii currently underway. At an intraday print of NAZ 2062 this wave would have declined 13.3%, the same as the previous correction. Monday's low was NAZ 2091. All these waves are larger five wave structures: there are impulse waves within each and every one of them. Within these larger structures, the smaller waves adhere to every applicable rule of Objective Elliott Wave (OEW). In a recent review of the total 120 years of recorded market movement, I have yet to come across an impulsive wave structure such as this, and it not be a bonfide ongoing bull market.
Currently, the RSI above the chart, displays a double dip oversold condition that is very similar to the recent major lows in August 2004 and April 2005. The Market Momentum Indicator (MMI), not shown, is also as oversold now as it was at two other major lows: March 2003 and August 2004. This correction is pushing it's limits for this bull market. Also, when a fifth wave is weak, such as the recent March-April 5th wave, often the correction will carry all the way back to the previous 2nd wave. This is exactly what occurred during the corrections to Primary Wave I and Major wave 1, which also had weak 5th waves. Lastly, I am been using EW pivot points to monitor the progress of the market. And they have worked very well, until this fast moving correction. Between monday's close and the previous 2nd wave there exists three more pivot points: NAZ 2094..2064..2042..2026 (the low of wave 2). I would expect the NAZ to find support at one of these levels to end this correction. If these don't hold, the next point of concern would be NAZ 1890. At that level, the entire advance from April 2005 would have been retraced, and the likelihood of an new bear market would then be the preferred count.
Il post mi sembra interessante, che ne pensate?
http://tinyurl.com/s9xn5
June 13
tuesday update
SHORT TERM: getting nastier out there.
Overnight the foreign markets sold off with Asia down 2 - 4%, and Europe down 2% as we opened. Our stock indices tried to rally several times today, and each attempt was met with more selling. At the close the SPX/DOW/NDX were down about 1%, and the NDX only marginally lower. The index that failed to make new highs in April, with the others, and has led the market lower for two months now, was only marginally lower.
The NAZ went through support pivot 2094 and is currently holding 2062. At the low of the day 2067, the NAZ had lost 13.1% of it's value. The comparative correction in early 2005 bottomed when the NAZ had lost 13.3% of it's value. There are two lower EW pivots mentioned last night: NAZ 2042 and 2026. NAZ 2026 represents a total retracement of the entire advance from October 2005 to the recent April high. The NDX completed that total retracement today by dropping below NDX 1515. The month of June opened on a positive note, but everyday since the 1st has had a lower close. From an OEW perspective this market is pushing the limits of its bull market scenario. It needs to hold NAZ 2000+. If it retraces back to April 2005, NAZ 1890, I would not see any reason to remain bullish. Let's see what unfolds in the coming days.
INTERMEDIATE TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bullish, but wavering
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6:17 PM | Permalink | Trackbacks (0) | Blog it
Permalink Close
tuesday morning
Just a quick update. The foreign markets were hit with some serious selling last nite: Asia down 2% - 4%, and Europe down 2% at the open. Our market is trying to stabilize the situation with an early morning rally that is weakening. Bernanke's speech might have an impact later in the day. Monitoring the NAZ as it deals with 2094 and 2064. Best to your day!
Add a comment
10:52 AM | Permalink | Trackbacks (0) | Blog it
Permalink Close
Nasdaq Composite in Review (NAZ)
All during this bull market, when the going got rough I turned to the NAZ to determine what truely is going on within the marketplace. I know most technicians/traders follow the SPX, and some the NDX, as those indices provide numerous tradeable derivatives, and they prefer a direct correlation in their trading strategies. As for me, the very fact that there are so many derivatives apparently makes both of these indices, at times, too volatile. Making their wave structures incomprehensible at times, creating aberrations in the overall Elliott Wave structure. Therefore, my less volatile, and less tradeable index of choice in the NAZ. It's waves have been crystal clear, and it's momentum cycles perfectly aligned since the October 2002 bottom.
Reviewing the bull market in the NAZ, using the weekly chart in the photo section. It's wave pattern as you can see is very clean. It doesn't look anything like the DOW, which has had it's share of reversals. It looked very similar to the NDX, until that index had a fifth wave failure in April, and then fell off the table, taking the rest of the market with it. Yet, it still looks very similar to everyone's bellweather SPX. From my OEW viewpoint, all three indices: DOW/NDX/SPX vibrate at an harmonic frequency in tune with the market, but the NAZ is the market. So what is the NAZ displaying now.
In October 2002 the bull market began with Primary wave I, and Primary wave II declined 17.6% into the March 2003 lows. By January 2004 Primary wave III had completed, and Primary wave IV declined 18.7% into the August 2004 lows. Notice they both declined about 18%! By January 2005 Major wave 1 had completed, and Major wave 2 declined 13.3% into the April 2005 lows. Recently, in April 2006 Intermediate wave i completed, with Intermediate wave ii currently underway. At an intraday print of NAZ 2062 this wave would have declined 13.3%, the same as the previous correction. Monday's low was NAZ 2091. All these waves are larger five wave structures: there are impulse waves within each and every one of them. Within these larger structures, the smaller waves adhere to every applicable rule of Objective Elliott Wave (OEW). In a recent review of the total 120 years of recorded market movement, I have yet to come across an impulsive wave structure such as this, and it not be a bonfide ongoing bull market.
Currently, the RSI above the chart, displays a double dip oversold condition that is very similar to the recent major lows in August 2004 and April 2005. The Market Momentum Indicator (MMI), not shown, is also as oversold now as it was at two other major lows: March 2003 and August 2004. This correction is pushing it's limits for this bull market. Also, when a fifth wave is weak, such as the recent March-April 5th wave, often the correction will carry all the way back to the previous 2nd wave. This is exactly what occurred during the corrections to Primary Wave I and Major wave 1, which also had weak 5th waves. Lastly, I am been using EW pivot points to monitor the progress of the market. And they have worked very well, until this fast moving correction. Between monday's close and the previous 2nd wave there exists three more pivot points: NAZ 2094..2064..2042..2026 (the low of wave 2). I would expect the NAZ to find support at one of these levels to end this correction. If these don't hold, the next point of concern would be NAZ 1890. At that level, the entire advance from April 2005 would have been retraced, and the likelihood of an new bear market would then be the preferred count.