CRUDE OIL, BRENT & Energy in Generale - 2.0
- Creatore Discussione xinian70
- Data di Inizio
alingtonsky
Forumer storico
3 reasons to stop betting that oil will continue to plunge
By William Watts
Published: Dec 15, 2014 5:31 p.m. ET
(MarketWatch) — Oil bears have had a lot to be joyous about since midyear but it might just be the season to start booking profits on those short bets, Deutsche Bank’s top asset allocation strategist said Monday.
In a note, Deutsche Bank’s chief strategist Binky Chadha identified three factors that had led Deutsche to recommend short positions back in June. Those three factors that earlier supported making betting that crude oil prices are on the decline now argue for short covering, he said.
Here they are:
The overvaluation gap has closed: In June, oil prices were 45% above fair value. Now, even though fair value for New York Mercantile -traded, WTI crude oil has dropped from around $80 to $58 thanks to a sharp rise in the dollar, the large fall in oil futures CLF5, -0.39% have closed the overvaluation gap (see chart at top of page), Chadha noted. Nymex WTI futures closed Monday at a five-year low of $55.91, down more than 48% from its June high near $107 a barrel.
Skew has normalized: A measure of volatility, the oil “put skew” by June had fallen well below its range over the previous five years, a contrarian signal that the market saw oil prices as unlikely to fall. The so-called skew is now back within its previous range, though it has been volatile as the market moves between pricing in a bottom and further declines, Chadha wrote.
Weak longs thinned out: Net speculative long positions in oil futures stood at record levels in June. While still historically high, net speculative longs had fallen to a 1.5 year low by early October and have remained there, Chadha noted. He acknowledges that still large net speculative long positions are the biggest risk to taking off short positions too early, but he suspects many of the remaining gross long positions are tied to longer-term asset allocation positions in oil and commodities “that are likely to be sticky.”
Chadha says the risk-reward picture now argues for closing short positions in oil. Any further fall in oil futures, particularly if the dollar trades flat, would represent “overshooting, which we would prefer not to chase,” he said.
Also, while traders were pricing in “too much” geopolitical risk to oil supply in June, the market “is now pricing almost none,” Chadha wrote.
3 reasons to stop betting that oil will continue to plunge - MarketWatch
Binky Chadha , stratega di vertice di Deutsche Bank, che in giugno aveva previsto che il prezzo del petrolio sarebbe sceso perché era sopravvalutato del 45%, attualmente pensa che sia arrivato il momento di chiudere posizioni short e che ulteriori ribassi del prezzo del petrolio non sarebbero giustificati
By William Watts
Published: Dec 15, 2014 5:31 p.m. ET
(MarketWatch) — Oil bears have had a lot to be joyous about since midyear but it might just be the season to start booking profits on those short bets, Deutsche Bank’s top asset allocation strategist said Monday.
In a note, Deutsche Bank’s chief strategist Binky Chadha identified three factors that had led Deutsche to recommend short positions back in June. Those three factors that earlier supported making betting that crude oil prices are on the decline now argue for short covering, he said.
Here they are:
The overvaluation gap has closed: In June, oil prices were 45% above fair value. Now, even though fair value for New York Mercantile -traded, WTI crude oil has dropped from around $80 to $58 thanks to a sharp rise in the dollar, the large fall in oil futures CLF5, -0.39% have closed the overvaluation gap (see chart at top of page), Chadha noted. Nymex WTI futures closed Monday at a five-year low of $55.91, down more than 48% from its June high near $107 a barrel.
Skew has normalized: A measure of volatility, the oil “put skew” by June had fallen well below its range over the previous five years, a contrarian signal that the market saw oil prices as unlikely to fall. The so-called skew is now back within its previous range, though it has been volatile as the market moves between pricing in a bottom and further declines, Chadha wrote.
Weak longs thinned out: Net speculative long positions in oil futures stood at record levels in June. While still historically high, net speculative longs had fallen to a 1.5 year low by early October and have remained there, Chadha noted. He acknowledges that still large net speculative long positions are the biggest risk to taking off short positions too early, but he suspects many of the remaining gross long positions are tied to longer-term asset allocation positions in oil and commodities “that are likely to be sticky.”
Chadha says the risk-reward picture now argues for closing short positions in oil. Any further fall in oil futures, particularly if the dollar trades flat, would represent “overshooting, which we would prefer not to chase,” he said.
Also, while traders were pricing in “too much” geopolitical risk to oil supply in June, the market “is now pricing almost none,” Chadha wrote.
3 reasons to stop betting that oil will continue to plunge - MarketWatch
Binky Chadha , stratega di vertice di Deutsche Bank, che in giugno aveva previsto che il prezzo del petrolio sarebbe sceso perché era sopravvalutato del 45%, attualmente pensa che sia arrivato il momento di chiudere posizioni short e che ulteriori ribassi del prezzo del petrolio non sarebbero giustificati
Allegati
Ultima modifica:
Vecchioamico
CAGARELFOLLOWER
Con la volatilità che c'è il 5 ore vale come una mia scureggia nel deserto.
Torna al settimanale gilles, prima short, poi dopo 4ore e mezzaa long, poi di nuovo short....torna al settimanale che è meglio, ma interpretalo bene però!
xinian70
CROC Analista
Natural Gas – Chiusura – 19/12/2014 – Situazione Tecnica
Il quadro sul medio-lungo periodo rimane negativo, ed è peggiorato con la mancata rottura di
zona 3,81, solo il superamento di zona 3,53 ora ,potrebbe dare luogo ad un rimbalzo per zona 3,81
CROC X1 – Supporti / Resistenze – Multiday (TF – 1H)
R3 = 4,042
R2 = 3,813
R1 = 3,467
PIVOT = 3,423
S1 = 3,379
S2 = 3,362
S3 = 3,346
NATURAL GAS – Chiusura 19/12/2014 – Cicli Temporali/Vitali C.R.O.C.
Natural Gas – ADX / ADM – TS – Livelli Intraday per il 22/12/2014
ADM – Average Daily Movement (30 Days) – Intraday Levels
entrata su close candela oraria… se superato il livello indicato
Il quadro sul medio-lungo periodo rimane negativo, ed è peggiorato con la mancata rottura di
zona 3,81, solo il superamento di zona 3,53 ora ,potrebbe dare luogo ad un rimbalzo per zona 3,81
CROC X1 – Supporti / Resistenze – Multiday (TF – 1H)
R3 = 4,042
R2 = 3,813
R1 = 3,467
PIVOT = 3,423
S1 = 3,379
S2 = 3,362
S3 = 3,346
NATURAL GAS – Chiusura 19/12/2014 – Cicli Temporali/Vitali C.R.O.C.
Natural Gas – ADX / ADM – TS – Livelli Intraday per il 22/12/2014
ADM – Average Daily Movement (30 Days) – Intraday Levels
entrata su close candela oraria… se superato il livello indicato
gilles1
Forumer storico
xinian70
CROC Analista
CRUDE OIL (Petrolio) – Chiusura - 19/12/2014 – Situazione Tecnica
I ribassi per il momento sembrano terminati, a quota 53,92 è partito un rimbalzo di breve periodo che dovrebbe durare fino ai prossimi dati delle scorte.
Sta provando ad invertire…ma siamo ancora lontani…
prima resistenza a quota 64,04
CRUDE OIL (Petrolio) – Chiusura - 19/12/2014 – sempre SHORT (sul TS di Medio-Lungo periodo)
Il CRUDE OIL – X4-TS è sempre SHORT sul contratto CLG15 – Feb ’15 , Flat & Reverse leggibili sul grafico
CRUDE OIL – Chiusura 19/12/2014 – Cicli Temporali/Vitali C.R.O.C.
CRUDE OIL – ADX / ADM – TS – Livelli Intraday per il 22/12/14
ADM – Average Daily Movement (30 Days) – Intraday Levels
entrata su close 1H (candela oraria)… se superato il livello indicato
I ribassi per il momento sembrano terminati, a quota 53,92 è partito un rimbalzo di breve periodo che dovrebbe durare fino ai prossimi dati delle scorte.
Sta provando ad invertire…ma siamo ancora lontani…
prima resistenza a quota 64,04
CRUDE OIL (Petrolio) – Chiusura - 19/12/2014 – sempre SHORT (sul TS di Medio-Lungo periodo)
Il CRUDE OIL – X4-TS è sempre SHORT sul contratto CLG15 – Feb ’15 , Flat & Reverse leggibili sul grafico
CRUDE OIL – Chiusura 19/12/2014 – Cicli Temporali/Vitali C.R.O.C.
CRUDE OIL – ADX / ADM – TS – Livelli Intraday per il 22/12/14
ADM – Average Daily Movement (30 Days) – Intraday Levels
entrata su close 1H (candela oraria)… se superato il livello indicato
