Analisi Intermarket era il 62%..e tre x rim.... (6 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Gianpa
- Data di Inizio
Novenove
Moderator
espresso:
Another Very Strong Quarter for Cash Generation
3Q10 profitability and cash generation better than expected. 3Q10 revenues stood at Eu194.4mn, +1.3% YoY and slightly ahead of our Eu190mn estimate. Our forecast was surpassed thanks to both slightly better advertising (up 5.9% YoY in 3Q10 or around 3% YoY organic, net of “Reti e Radio”) and higher add-on sales. EBITDA after extraordinary items was Eu29mn, 13% above our Eu26mn estimate and up 32% organically. This, coupled with lower D&A and financials, led to a better bottom line as well: Eu7.7mn vs. Eu3mn expected. The net financial position was also much better then expected, at Eu132mn, vs. our Eu161mn forecast and down from Eu184mn in 1H10. Advertising grew 5.9% YoY in 3Q to Eu104.4mn vs. our 4.8% YoY expectation, including “Reti e Radio”, net of which growth would have been about 3% YoY. This is better than the 1.8% organic growth posted in 2Q, despite a tougher YoY comparison. By medium, YoY advertising growth in 9M10 came from Internet (+21.6%) and Radio (+13.6%), while the press remained negative (-1.8%). In 4Q10 we expect the growth to subside to around 1.5% reported, as 4Q09 was the best quarter in 2009, so the comparison will be very tough. Circulation was still down by a low single-digit amount (-3.9% YoY), actually a steeper decrease than in 1H10. Finally, add-on sales declined 20% YoY, slightly less than expected
Another Very Strong Quarter for Cash Generation
3Q10 profitability and cash generation better than expected. 3Q10 revenues stood at Eu194.4mn, +1.3% YoY and slightly ahead of our Eu190mn estimate. Our forecast was surpassed thanks to both slightly better advertising (up 5.9% YoY in 3Q10 or around 3% YoY organic, net of “Reti e Radio”) and higher add-on sales. EBITDA after extraordinary items was Eu29mn, 13% above our Eu26mn estimate and up 32% organically. This, coupled with lower D&A and financials, led to a better bottom line as well: Eu7.7mn vs. Eu3mn expected. The net financial position was also much better then expected, at Eu132mn, vs. our Eu161mn forecast and down from Eu184mn in 1H10. Advertising grew 5.9% YoY in 3Q to Eu104.4mn vs. our 4.8% YoY expectation, including “Reti e Radio”, net of which growth would have been about 3% YoY. This is better than the 1.8% organic growth posted in 2Q, despite a tougher YoY comparison. By medium, YoY advertising growth in 9M10 came from Internet (+21.6%) and Radio (+13.6%), while the press remained negative (-1.8%). In 4Q10 we expect the growth to subside to around 1.5% reported, as 4Q09 was the best quarter in 2009, so the comparison will be very tough. Circulation was still down by a low single-digit amount (-3.9% YoY), actually a steeper decrease than in 1H10. Finally, add-on sales declined 20% YoY, slightly less than expected
Novenove
Moderator
Auto Business in China for Free!
3Q sales better than expected and guidance raised: Yesterday PSA reported 3Q sales up 10%, much better than the consensus estimate of
+2%. The growth came from Faurecia and from not as bad as expected
figures in the automotive division (which grew by 2% YoY instead of an expected decline). The company is guiding for recurring EBIT of "above Eu1.5bn" vs. "around Eu1.5bn" previously (the consensus stands at Eu1.6bn). Guidance looks quite conservative even granting the cautious indication that the Automotive division will just break even in 2H10.
The company's Chinese JV should almost double its profit in 2H to Eu200mn. This will bring net debt below the June level of Eu1.7bn (consensus is Eu2bn). We think that the Automotive division should be able to turn a small profit in 2H and that 2010 overall recurring EBIT should be at least Eu1.75bn. The company also raised its European market assumptions for 2010 (from -7% YoY to -5%), saying that growth in 2011 could be between flat and +2%.
Chinese business for free: We feel the market has not fully grasped PSA's presence in China, where the JV called DPC has only 1.5% of the market but is targeting 3% in 2014, when production capacity will more than double. PSA's stake in China now accounts for 7% of consolidated automotive volumes and this weight is set to increase to 15% by 2014.
Furthermore, pricing in China is in line or above European levels, with a better environment that allows for much higher margins than in Europe (at least in the short term). For this reason, this year business in China will contribute positively to PSA's group profit to the tune of Eu200mn; that should reach Eu375mn in 2014 (this is assuming a strong margin decline). We feel the market has not fully understood PSA's role in China (some believe it is zero as it is not consolidated at EBIT) and the JV value is not priced in at all.
Undervalued assets: the PSA Group is trading at 2010 multiples of 0.2x EV/sales, 4.6x EV/EBIT and 6.4x P/E. This does not look like a fair valuation, however, when taking into account the rapidly growing Chinese JV, the Faurecia business (in a sector that usually trades at around 0.5x EV/sales on average), Gefco (the logistic services division) and PSA Banque (which will contribute Eu479mn to PSA's 2010 recurring EBIT of Eu1.8bn). We value all these assets separately using a sum of the parts approach, as we do not believe they are being properly valued by the market. Furthermore, consensus on PSA is too low (partly due to the extremely cautious guidance provided by the company) and is likely to be revised significantly upwards.
3Q sales better than expected and guidance raised: Yesterday PSA reported 3Q sales up 10%, much better than the consensus estimate of
+2%. The growth came from Faurecia and from not as bad as expected
figures in the automotive division (which grew by 2% YoY instead of an expected decline). The company is guiding for recurring EBIT of "above Eu1.5bn" vs. "around Eu1.5bn" previously (the consensus stands at Eu1.6bn). Guidance looks quite conservative even granting the cautious indication that the Automotive division will just break even in 2H10.
The company's Chinese JV should almost double its profit in 2H to Eu200mn. This will bring net debt below the June level of Eu1.7bn (consensus is Eu2bn). We think that the Automotive division should be able to turn a small profit in 2H and that 2010 overall recurring EBIT should be at least Eu1.75bn. The company also raised its European market assumptions for 2010 (from -7% YoY to -5%), saying that growth in 2011 could be between flat and +2%.
Chinese business for free: We feel the market has not fully grasped PSA's presence in China, where the JV called DPC has only 1.5% of the market but is targeting 3% in 2014, when production capacity will more than double. PSA's stake in China now accounts for 7% of consolidated automotive volumes and this weight is set to increase to 15% by 2014.
Furthermore, pricing in China is in line or above European levels, with a better environment that allows for much higher margins than in Europe (at least in the short term). For this reason, this year business in China will contribute positively to PSA's group profit to the tune of Eu200mn; that should reach Eu375mn in 2014 (this is assuming a strong margin decline). We feel the market has not fully understood PSA's role in China (some believe it is zero as it is not consolidated at EBIT) and the JV value is not priced in at all.
Undervalued assets: the PSA Group is trading at 2010 multiples of 0.2x EV/sales, 4.6x EV/EBIT and 6.4x P/E. This does not look like a fair valuation, however, when taking into account the rapidly growing Chinese JV, the Faurecia business (in a sector that usually trades at around 0.5x EV/sales on average), Gefco (the logistic services division) and PSA Banque (which will contribute Eu479mn to PSA's 2010 recurring EBIT of Eu1.8bn). We value all these assets separately using a sum of the parts approach, as we do not believe they are being properly valued by the market. Furthermore, consensus on PSA is too low (partly due to the extremely cautious guidance provided by the company) and is likely to be revised significantly upwards.
Franzo
PELO e CONTROPELO
ciao Franzo
guardati mediolanum
Buongiorno !
psssst ... Novenove ciao
, ... era il 18 ottobre (3,26) ... grasssssie 
Novenove
Moderator
Buongiorno !
psssst ... Novenove ciao
mi fa solo piacere....che tu stia guadagnando
Novenove
Moderator
Washington, 21 ott - Il Fondo
monetario internazionale rende noto di avere abbassato le
proprie previsioni per la produzione di petrolio iracheno
del prossimo anno dopo il deludente 2010. Stando a un
rapporto - datato 20 settembre ma pubblicato ieri - gli
esperti dell'Fmi stimano che nel 2011 la produzione di
greggio del Paese sara' di 2,2 milioni di barili al giorno e
non di 2,9 milioni come indicato in febbraio. Per il 2012 le
indicazioni sono state abbassate a 2,6 milioni dai 3,1
milioni indicati sette mesi fa.
Man-
(RADIOCOR) 21-10-10 09:56:24 (0079)ene 5 NNNN
monetario internazionale rende noto di avere abbassato le
proprie previsioni per la produzione di petrolio iracheno
del prossimo anno dopo il deludente 2010. Stando a un
rapporto - datato 20 settembre ma pubblicato ieri - gli
esperti dell'Fmi stimano che nel 2011 la produzione di
greggio del Paese sara' di 2,2 milioni di barili al giorno e
non di 2,9 milioni come indicato in febbraio. Per il 2012 le
indicazioni sono state abbassate a 2,6 milioni dai 3,1
milioni indicati sette mesi fa.
Man-
(RADIOCOR) 21-10-10 09:56:24 (0079)ene 5 NNNN
