Obbligazioni societarie GDO, Food e non Food

[lorenzo63]

Crollo vendite in Europa

Le vendite retail hanno avuto una grossa caduta. I tagli di lavoro evidentemente hanno reso i consumatori molto + prudenti nella spesa.
Eurostat dice che le vendite non food hanno sofferto molto di + degli alimentari.


LONDON -- Retail sales in the euro zone slumped in February, posting the largest year-to-year slide since records began in January 2000 as further job cuts made consumers more wary of spending, data showed Monday.

Sales volumes in the 16 countries that use the euro fell a larger-than-expected 4.0% from a year earlier and 0.6% from January, the European Union's statistics agency said. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week estimated that sales declined 2.5% on a year-to-year basis and 0.4% on a monthly basis.

In January, retail sales rose 0.1% month-to-month, while the annual figure was revised to show a 1.7% fall. Eurostat originally said sales fell 2.2% year-to-year.

The data show that consumers in the euro zone continue to act cautiously as unemployment rose to an almost three-year high in February. As the recession rumbles on, the threat of further job cuts remains, weighing on consumer confidence.

In Germany, sales fell 0.2% in February from a month earlier, while French sales slid 0.1%. For the 27 members of the European Union as a whole, sales fell 1.2% month-to-month and 3.4% year-to-year.

Eurostat said nonfood sales suffered more than food sales on a month-to-month basis. In February, nonfood sales declined 1.1% from January, while food sales were flat.

 

[Imark]

Battute a parte:Grazie. e .. un millennio o l' altro .. a buon rendere.

Stavolta in particolare, non ne hai motivo... non ho trovato nada de nada...

 

[lorenzo63]

Stavolta in particolare, non ne hai motivo... non ho trovato nada de nada...

Che vuol dire? ...Dai! Io intendo dire che Ti ringrazio per il tempo che hai dedicato per questa cosa... il Tempo è l' unica merce di cui, purtroppo c'è nè sempre troppo poco...

 

[lorenzo63]

Mars & Spencer

Và un po' meglio del prevsito..


LONDON -- Marks & Spencer Group PLC Tuesday reported a smaller-than-expected drop in fiscal fourth-quarter U.K. sales as the retailer cut prices and sharpened its product offering in food, clothing and homewares.

The nation's biggest department store operator said sales from U.K. stores open at least a year dropped 4.2% in the three months to March 28, an improvement on the 7.1% decline in the third quarter, which included the key Christmas trading period, and better than market expectations for a 7% decline.

The report sent shares 11% higher to 293 pence ($4.18), making it the biggest gainer on London's FTSE 100 Index and putting the stock at its highest level since August last year.

Marks & Spencer Executive Chairman Stuart Rose said he was hopeful that the fourth-quarter sales trend, which was better than the three previous quarters, would continue in 2009. However, he said trading remains tough as consumers hold back spending during the economic downturn. "It hasn't got any worse, but it certainly hasn't got any better," Mr. Rose said.

The company said it had improved its performance in both food and general merchandise by cutting prices, offering "sharper" promotions, improving its product offering and ensuring products were available. Mr. Rose said food-price deflation in its stores is running at 1.3%,

Fourth-quarter group sales rose 1.9%, as weak U.K. sales offset a 23% rise in international sales.

Marks & Spencer has seen sales and profits slide as consumers cut spending due to growing unemployment and a worsening U.K. economy. The company has reacted to the downturn by closing 27 stores and laying off 1,200 of its own staff -- a process it has now completed, Mr. Rose said.

Market expectations had been low ahead of Marks & Spencer's trading update after rival Next PLC last week forecast further sales and margin declines for the remainder of 2009. It reported a 14% drop in full-year pretax profit as sales fell and the pound's decline pushed up the price of stock bought abroad.

In line with its guidance, Marks & Spencer said it expects its U.K. retail gross margin to be around 1.75 percentage points lower in fiscal 2009 than a year earlier. It also expects operating cost growth of 4% to 5% and capital expenditure to be no more than £700 million.

Marks & Spencer will announce its fiscal 2009 results and confirm its guidance for the new financial year on May 19. Mr. Rose and Ian Dyson, group finance and operations director, were tightlipped on profit or margin expectations for the new year

 

[lorenzo63]

Tesco

LONDON -- Tesco PLC said Friday it will spend £150 million ($225.2 million) on the relaunch of its Clubcard customer program, a move aimed at helping the U.K.'s biggest retailer stem its recent loss in market share as value-conscious shoppers seek out bargains.

From Monday, Clubcard holders will be able to double the value of their vouchers against a wide range of popular products including clothing, baby goods, wine in Tesco stores and online. Chief Executive Terry Leahy had flagged the relaunch last month.

Since the introduction of Clubcard in February 1995, Tesco customers could spend their Clubcard vouchers at face value in stores and online, or increase the value by up to four times by trading them for a range of deals with Clubcard partners, including restaurants, theme parks, airlines and driving schools.

Pali International analyst Nick Bubb said the relaunch is "a sensible move by Tesco to help try to stem recent market-share loss." But he cautioned the retailer has "their work cut out to remedy their marketing and ranging weakness' versus rivals J Sainsbury PLC, Asda Group Ltd. and William Morrison Supermarkets PLC."

Tesco's U.K. grocery market share fell to 30.6% in the 12 week to April 19 from 31.1% a year earlier, according to the latest Taylor Nelson Sofres data. In second and third place are Asda and Sainsbury with 17.2% and 16.3%, respectively. Morrison's grocery-market share was 11.5% over the 12 weeks.

Tesco, the world's third-biggest retailer by sales, has 15 million Clubcard members in the U.K., and more than seven million in China, Ireland, Korea and Malaysia. It is also testing the card in Poland, Slovakia, Thailand and Turkey.

Since 1995, Tesco has collected data on each customer purchase and used data analysis to understand what exactly its customers want

 

[lorenzo63]

Euro-Zone Retail Sales Post Record Declines

LONDON -- European businesses remain optimistic about the economy despite fresh evidence that the retail and manufacturing sectors continue to feel the pinch of the global slowdown.

Business in Europe's manufacturing and services sector shrank at a slightly slower pace last month, while other sectors of the economy continue to contract rapidly.

The Markit Economics research group said Wednesday that its composite purchasing managers index for the euro zone rose to 41.1 in April from 38.3 in March. A measure below 50 in the index reflects contracting business activity in the 16-country euro zone.

Business expectations were the most optimistic in 15 months for Spain, and in 10 months for Germany and France. Expectations for activity surged to 54.5 -- their highest level in nine months, indicating that businesses expect activity to expand over the course of next year.

"Business levels clearly continued to contract sharply as we entered the second quarter, and firms are having to cut prices to compete in the face of falling demand, which will hurt profits," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit. "But businesses seem to sense that the worst is now over with confidence climbing to a 10-month high."

Official data out Wednesday indicated that euro-zone retail sales posted a record drop in annual terms in March, amid a record year-on-year slump in sales of food, drink, and tobacco.

Sales volumes dropped 0.6% from February and 4.2% from March 2008, the biggest annual fall since comparable records began in 2000, the European Union statistics agency Eurostat said.

The decline in Spanish industrial production accelerated in March, protracting the slump in the country's economy. The Spanish statistics office reported Wednesday that industrial output fell 25% in calendar-adjusted terms, following a 22% decline in February and a 21% fall in January.

In the U.K., which like Spain has been hit by a housing slump, house prices fell 17.7% in April from a year earlier, lender Lloyds Banking Group PLC said when announcing its latest Halifax housing index.

"Rising unemployment, low consumer confidence and the reduced availability of credit are all expected to exert downward pressure on the housing market over the next few months," said Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist.

The bad news recorded in the manufacturing and retail sectors is likely to step up pressure on the European Central Bank to cut its key rate to 1% from 1.25% when it meets Thursday.

ECB policy makers have indicated they may lengthen the terms of the loans they make to banks in order to stimulate borrowing and lending across the economy

 

[Imark]

La liquidità dei retailers EU e le scadenze sul debito nei prossimi 12 mesi ... da leggere.

 

[cangiante]

grazie Mark,
quando dovessi avere un attimo di tempo, potresti valutare un approfondimento sul bond perpetual di Casino?

 

[Imark]

grazie Mark,
quando dovessi avere un attimo di tempo, potresti valutare un approfondimento sul bond perpetual di Casino?

Avevamo pubblicato il prospetto ? Qui c'è da verificare le condizioni per un eventuale deferral e cosa succede alle cedole del perpetual, se posticipate o perdute... sul FOL qualcosa era stata scritta, ma non ho più accesso, sono stato bannato in permanenza... se fai tu una ricerca avanzata lì con le parole "perpetual" e "casino" qualcosa viene fuori...

Io intanto vedo se avevamo pubblicato il prospetto del perpetual qui...

 

[Imark]

Intanto direi che si può partire con un inquadramento recente dell'emittente... il perpetual dovrebbe avere rating sotto l'IG (vado a memoria) anche per le altre due agenzie...

E' un po' che non la seguo, l'ultima volta che ci ho avuto a che fare fu quando ristrutturò le attività estere (mi pare fu nel 2006) dismettendone una parte, ma non operai sul perpetual...

Il leverage complessivo é piuttosto elevato (da rating BB, ad occhio) e la tenuta dell'IG (con un perpetual già BB+ per Fitch) è dipendente dal successo delle operazioni di dismissione di asset e di riduzione del capex indicate nel report, oltre che dalla capacità di evitare deterioramenti ulteriori della performance operativa (peraltro, se guardi lo specchietto allegato, la stessa agenzia prevede un free cash flow negativo nei prossimi 12 mesi).

Se le cose dovessero andare male, avresti uno scivolamento dell'emittente verso un rating di due livelli più basso dell'attuale, ed il perpetual starebbe un livello sotto il rating IDR (attorno a BB-, worst case scenario).

In teoria la liquidità disponibile per pagare le cedole c'è, ma come funziona il deferral sul perpetual ? E' obbligatorio, facoltativo e al ricorrere di quali condizioni ? E' lì il busillis...

Fitch Affirms Casino Guichard-Perrachon at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable
09 Apr 2009 5:05 AM (EDT)


Fitch Ratings-Paris/London-09 April 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA's (Casino) Long-term Issuer Default rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating at 'BBB-' (BBB minus) and Short-term IDR at 'F3'. Fitch also affirmed Casino's EUR600m perpetual preferred constant maturity swap securities at 'BB+'. The Outlook for the Long-term IDR is Stable.

"Casino's ratings reflect the group's overall business performance resilience, thanks to its multi-format strategy, private label development and a more focused international portfolio of activities," says Johnny Da Silva, Director in Fitch's European Retail Leisure Consumer Products team. "The group's adjusted leverage remains high due to its EUR1.5bn off-balance sheet obligations and therefore, Fitch sees low rating headroom at the current rating."

The French food retail market continues to be difficult due to a weak economic environment, price deflation and competition among main food retailers.

In France, most of Casino's retail formats have performed in line with management's expectations and have shown resilience, thanks to the group's multi-format strategy. However, Fitch expects that the economic outlook, intense price competition and the implementation of the recent French Law "LME" to put pressure on the group's domestic revenue and operating margin in 2009.

Casino has refocused its international portfolio (29% of the group's FY08 operating profit) mainly towards Brazil, Colombia and Thailand, where the group enjoys strong market positions. Key challenges for the group's international portfolio include consolidating leading positions and managing country risks.

Casino's financial profile was stable at FYE08, with net debt/EBITDA unchanged at 2.5x. The group aims to reduce the ratio to 2.2x at end-2010.The group's lease-adjusted net debt/EBITDAR also remained broadly stable at 3.8x at FYE08 (FYE07: 3.7x). Fitch's calculation of these ratios includes adjustments of EUR163m for the group's securitised assets, EUR300m related to its deeply subordinated notes, EUR259m for the equity swap with Exito and EUR460m of annual operating leases that Fitch capitalises.

Fitch also computes and monitors an all-in leverage ratio encompassing all of Casino's off-balance sheet obligations (mainly put options). This all-in debt/EBITDAR ratio deteriorated slightly to 4.2x at FYE08 (FYE07: 4x) due to increased operating leases and increased value of the Monoprix put option at EUR1.2bn at FYE08 (versus EUR850m in FYE07).

Fitch sees this adjusted leverage ratio high for the current rating but is reassured by the group's EUR1bn asset disposal that should be completed by end-2010 and by the reduced capex to EUR800m announced in March 2009. These measures should help improve its credit metrics over the next two years.

Casino has adequate liquidity to meet its off-balance sheet obligations with cash and equivalent of about EUR1.5bn (net of overdrafts) and undrawn bank facilities of about EUR2bn as of FYE08. In Fitch's view, Casino's parent company, Rallye, presently has sufficient liquidity to service its debt obligation with no debt maturing in 2009. The agency does not expect Rallye to significantly constrain Casino's de-leveraging financial policy in the near term.

The ratings could come under pressure if the group's overall operating performance in 2009 worsens more than in Q408, or if the group fails to improve its adjusted debt ratio.