Gloria ai Bastardi - Cap. 1

[Dogtown]

Yellen says lower oil prices have boosted consumer spending, although not by as much as expected.

“The typical, the average household in the United States with oil prices where they are now is probably benefiting around $1,000 a year,” she said.

 

[Dogtown]

The Fed declined to say whether it considers the risks to the economy as “balanced” or tilted toward the downside, Yellen said.

The so-called “bias” in the Fed’s assessment of the balance of risks used to be considered an important signal of its intentions, but the dot-plot has made it somewhat irrelevant. The Fed is on the path to higher rates.

 

[Dogtown]

There’s no evidence of a broad-based pickup in wages, Yellen says, which is evidence that the economy is not yet at full employment and that there are potential workers at the margins who are holding down wages.

 

[Dogtown]

Most Americans aren’t as negative about the economy as sometimes portrayed, Yellen says. Consumer sentiment surveys aren’t at very low levels, reflecting the improvement in the labor market and in household balance sheets, she says.

 

[Dogtown]

Yellen forced to go on defensive about Fed’s political leanings, because of this article about Gov. Brainard’s contribution to Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

“I want to start by saying that I’ve been involved for many years in the Federal Reserve system, and we are a nonpartisan, independent institution devoted to pursuing our Congressionally mandated objectives. And I have never seen a political views in any way influence the policy judgments that are made inside the Federal Reserve,” she said.

 

[Dogtown]

The Philips Curve is alive, Yellen says.

She says there is still a relationship between the level of slack in the labor markets and the inflation rate, although she says it now takes a large change in the unemployment rate to fuel very much inflation.

 

[Dogtown]

The Fed isn’t considering dropping interest rates into negative territory, Yellen says in response to a hypothetical question. Europe and Japan have moved to negative interest rates in an attempt to provide more stimulus through monetary policy.

She emphasizes that the Fed has lots of tools it could turn to (such as further quantitative easing) before it would consider negative rates,

 

[Dogtown]

59% of fund managers see an economy in its final innings — highest percent since 2008

 

[Dogtown]

59% of fund managers see an economy in its final innings — highest percent since 2008

...per me da leggersi in ottica contrarian.

 

[Dogtown]

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