Ten Reasons why good buying opportunities lie ahead in high-yield bonds.
Wes Sparks, head of U.S. Fixed Income, Schroders
Macroeconomic concerns have raised the volatility in recent weeks clearly. But Wes Sparks, head of U.S. fixed income, is convinced that beckon with high yield good buying opportunities. Just a few months I've seen bring up for the summer, a larger correction in high yield, which might send the proceeds to a full 100 basis points above . The market is now well on its way in this direction: On 20 June, the global high-yield index rose 80 basis points compared to its low point about six weeks. The global high yield index w eist a yield of about 7.6% to, the option-adjusted spread over U.S. Treasury bonds is about 560 bps. With these figures the market is now approaching a point where valuations are very attractive. Here's a countdown of the ten reasons that convince me that good buying opportunities are just around the corner.
10th The recent weakness in economic data has been reinforced by temporary disruptions The data distortions that are attributable to the impact of disasters in Japan are likely to be temporary. It would soon bring about a recovery in production growth spurt.
9th A weaker growth environment relaxes the commodity prices after draws disappointing data in recent months, the silver lining on the horizon: The pressure on commodity prices is slowly (the global PMI input price index fell in May to a five-month low), which in turn relieves the consumer and the pressure should take the profit margins of companies.
8th Corporate balance sheets are healthy and the fundamentals of corporate bonds are on the upswing , the cash balances in the corporate balance sheets are still at record high: On average, companies that high-yield bonds issued, covered 15 percent of their liabilities by liquid assets. The key credit metrics such as debt and interest coverage ratio has improved over the past six quarters, with the largest increase among the lower rated and registered corporate bonds was higher debt.
7th The reported earnings for the second quarter in July and August are likely to act as a positive catalyst n The announcement of the company's figures for the second quarter begins in the second week of July and will be a key driver of returns in July and August be. We anticipate that the burdens on businesses due to higher procurement costs are compensated by profit margins at record levels.
6th The U.S. central bank still holds more firmly to their extremely supplying monetary policy even if governments raise in the U.S. and Europe no longer the financial strength or political will for further fiscal stimulus, the current monetary policy is-sufficient enough to avert a recession. Since the macroeconomic headwinds continue to blow, we expect in the coming quarters, but with slow growth. Receive support high-yield bonds but by an economic growth of around 2 percent in combination with extremely low short-term rates.
5thThe net supply will exceed demand, since it is the majority of new issues to refinance transactions total, 2010 were launched worldwide in high yield bonds worth over 300 billion U.S. dollars. Thus, the previous record of 181 billion U.S. dollars of gross offering in 2009 was surpassed. In the current year is the gross offering prepared ts at over 180 billion USD . But times, layoffs and buy-backs were high, so that the net supply remained at moderate levels. In May, the offer was straightforward, although it was by far the highest ever experienced in a month. In May the world were new issues NEN worth more than $ 50 billion issued, but two-thirds of this offering to pay off existing debt were used.
4th Is through the recent refinancing activities in the short run only a little e catalysts for failures , the failure rate has dropped rapidly, as banks have loosened their credit standards. We assume that the global defaults in high yield at least over the next two years at well below 3 percent. This is true even in declining economy. Because in recent months many companies have refinanced already on its future expiring bank loans and bonds.
3rd The emission volume decline in markets and difficult to assess the transaction structures are investor-friendly A short-term correction can be healthy for the high yield market. Because it causes the emission of volume decline, giving investors greater power to influence the conditions and the prices of launched transactions, and ensures that signatories, issuers and private equity firms do not lose your grip. When the rally later in the credit cycle continues unabated, we will inevitably get more aggressive leveraged buyouts and purchases to be seen. A correction can therefore reassure overly exuberant market trends and prolong the duration of the credit cycle.
2nd The risk premiums in high-yield segment remain despite the low credit risk high because the risk of failure at this point in the credit cycle is incredibly low, offering yield spreads of high yield bonds to government bonds, a rich compensation for the risk of default, even if there is room for a narrowing.
1st The strong demand is continuing and, at higher yields increase even insurance companies and pension funds, which account for nearly 50 percent of investors in global high yield market, are using their cash when the yields rise on the market again. In the next six to twelve months, we do not expect with major changes in the distribution of assets. But surely there can be short periods of outflows from high yield mutual funds, as observed in recent weeks had been. Due to such short-term buying opportunities arise frequently outflows, the institutional investors not to be missed to expand their involvement in high yield. This we have seen in the four previous corrections in 2010 and in March 2011.
In addition, a growing poor environment in conjunction with occasional volatility waves enthusiasm dampen some investors who were encouraged in recent times, from fixed income investments to promising stock markets to tilt. Meet in an environment of moderate growth environment with an extremely short-term interest rates and monetary policy-sufficient at an extremely low level of high-yield bonds but still a chord.