Kazakh Government Helps Halyk Bank Take Over Kazkommertsbank, a Credit Positive
Last Thursday, The National Bank of Kazakhstan announced that government authorities will help Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan (Ba2/Ba3 negative, ba39 ) take over Kazkommertsbank (B3/Caa2 review direction uncertain, ca). Although the takeover agreement is not yet final and there are no further details, the news is credit positive because government aid will help restore Kazkommertsbank’s creditworthiness, offset acquisition risk for Halyk and signals a strong commitment to improve the system’s overall weak creditworthiness. For Kazkommertsbank’s creditors, the announcement means that authorities will help the bank substantially reduce its problem assets, thereby restoring the lender’s creditworthiness. Earlier this year, authorities agreed to allocate KZT2.1 trillion ($6.5 billion) to buy problem assets from banks facing heightened insolvency risks. We expect Kazkommertsbank to receive the largest part of this aid, if not the entire amount, which should sufficiently address its solvency problems. Kazkommertsbank’s solvency problems relate to its problematic KZT2.5 trillion exposure to distressed asset holding company BTA, which is not provisioned and accounts for about 57% of gross loans. Two years ago, Kazkommertsbank transferred the majority of its legacy problem assets to BTA, which has to recover cash and fully repay its outstanding debt by 2024, a challenging task given Kazakhstan’s weak economic outlook. The announcement follows Kazkommertsbank repaying its senior unsecured bonds, meaning authorities are unlikely to bail in creditors, which was the practice when resolving other systemically important banks in 2009-14. The merger will also make Halyk the dominant player with a 38% market share in assets and, more importantly, a 40% share in retail deposits (see exhibit). This would increase its systemic importance and give it a higher likelihood of government support in case of need. Additionally, the merger would boost Halyk’s competitive position among large corporate customers, lifting its margins and bargaining power during a period of weak credit demand.
The deal also signals authorities’ increasing readiness to support the country’s largest lenders in case of need, and demonstrates the government’s strong commitment and readiness to allocate funds to restore the system’s creditworthiness while consolidating it. Such consolidation also benefits other large stronger lenders such as SB Sberbank JSC (Ba3 negative, b3) and Kaspi Bank JSC (B1/B2 negative, b2) because it will reduce the number of weak players and eliminate the system’s overcapacity, lifting banks’ margins and profitability.