Portafogli e Strategie (investimento) Il cassetto degli obbligazionisti perpetui (4 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Zorba
- Data di Inizio
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
io non posso......pizza e birra in romagna son care e non mi ci scapperebbero
Ma se io quando posso vengo in Romagna perchè si spende meno !!!
Non fare il patacca
frankiemachine
Mr. Tentenna
Ma se io quando posso vengo in Romagna perchè si spende meno !!!
Non fare il patacca
dai.....'na piadeina sqvaqverone e rucola ci scappa!!
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
ferdo
Utente Senior
Non tanto per accumulare...per ora
bè tra poco siamo quasi ai valori di ieri mattina
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
ferdo
Utente Senior
perpetual
reef
...
Caccia ai "fondamentali"?
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THE BIG PICTURE | Updated: 01-Jun-10
Analysis of major issues impacting the financial markets.
Stocks are extremely cheap by traditional fundamental measures. The recent sell-off is not a reaction to a bubble, but rather the incorporation of a very high risk premium. This premium may well be justified, but it may also reflect an emotional reaction based on the 2008-2009 experience.
...
Here are the current statistics for the S&P 500:
Year-ahead earnings on a share-weighted basis for the S&P 500 are expected to be approximately $84.30 per share (1).
That produces a year-ahead earnings yield of 7.74% for the S&P 500 ($84.30 divided by the current level of the S&P 500 of 1089.41).
The current 10-year treasury note yield is 3.29%.
In order for the year-ahead earnings yield on the S&P 500 to be just 3.29% based on current earnings estimates, the S&P 500 would have to be at 2562.
By this measure, stocks are trading at just 43% of their fair value.
Another way to look at this is that the return on stocks is over twice the return on bonds.
Stocks are incredibly cheap by traditional valuation methods.
...
The recent market sell-off did not occur because stocks had become overvalued or reflected bubble conditions.
It occurred because investors are afraid of a repeat of 2008-2009 stock market conditions, sparked by the problems in Greece.
It reflects concerns that another near-term disruption to credit flows might occur, or that de-leveraging in western democracies will take a lot longer than washing out the impacts from sub-prime mortgages and the housing bubble.
The important point is that stocks are very cheap by traditional measures, and that it is the risk premium that is now hammering the stock market.
If Europe and the U.S. manage to muddle through the current fiscal stresses, even if that takes a few years, this may prove to have been an historic long-term buying opportunity.
On the other hand, the risks in the stock market remain very large. It is indeed possible that de-leveraging in the developed economies takes years and causes serious economic disruptions. There is a far higher-than-normal probability of a sharp market decline.
This high risk/high reward situation requires that investors honestly recognize their risk tolerance and assess their long-term plans. For young people, this may very well prove to be an outstanding buying opportunity. In fact, further declines in the market may improve long-term returns if investors keep buying (more cheaply) into the market through 401k programs or similar, assuming economies and markets stabilize in ten years.
For others with a shorter time horizon, the risks may warrant continued caution. There is no doubt that credit-flow problems persist with potential serious consequences.
Stocks are cheap, but risks are high.