Standard & Poor's diminuisce l'outlook Italia da stabile a negativo !
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) May 20, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
today said that it has revised its outlook on the ratings on the Republic of
Italy to negative from stable to reflect its views of the heightened downside
risks in the government's debt reduction plan. At the same time, Standard &
Poor's affirmed its 'A+' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term sovereign credit
ratings on Italy. The transfer and convertibility assessment remains at 'AAA'.
"In our view Italy's current growth prospects are weak, and the political
commitment for productivity-enhancing reforms appears to be faltering, and
potential political gridlock could contribute to fiscal slippage," Standard &
Poor's credit analyst Eileen Zhang said. "As a result, we believe Italy's
prospects for reducing its general government debt have diminished."
The negative outlook on Italy (unsolicited rating A+/Negative/A-1+) reflects
Standard & Poor's view of the mainly downside risks to the government's
debt-reduction plan over the 2011-2014 period, and implies a one-in-three
chance that the ratings could be lowered within the next 24 months. In our
view, these downside risks will primarily stem from weaker growth than our
current assumption of average GDP growth of 1.3% over the 2011-2014 period.
In addition, extended political gridlock could contribute to fiscal slippage.
If one or a combination of these risks materializes, Italy's general
government debt could stagnate at the current high level. In this case, we may
lower the long- and short-term ratings on Italy. On the other hand, if the
government manages to gather political support for the implementation of
competitiveness-enhancing structural reforms, paving the way for higher
economic growth and faster reduction of its debt burden, the ratings could
remain at the current level.