Announcement:
Moody's: Slovenia's credit profile supported by substantial wealth levels and high-value export base
17 May 2018
Frankfurt am Main, May 17, 2018 -- Slovenia's credit profile (Baa1 stable) reflects its substantial per-capita wealth, and high value-added export base, Moody's Investors Service said in an new annual report. The country's credit constraints include its high, but declining, government debt burden.
The report, "Government of Slovenia -- Baa1 stable, Annual credit analysis", is now available on
www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link at the end of this press release. The research is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating action.
"Slovenia's growth is expected to slow gradually from a peak of 5% in 2017 as the economic cycle begins to turn both at home and for its main export partners, but it will remain robust over the next few years," said Petter Bryman, a Moody's Assistant Vice President -- Analyst and co-author of the report.
"Sustained improvements in government debt and deficit metrics, as well as recent reforms aimed at addressing some of the country's institutional challenges, will also support creditworthiness."
Slovenia's GDP growth rates are forecast to stand at 4.3% in 2018 and 3.5% in 2019, driven by continued growth in private consumption and investment as strong export growth will require additional investment from firms already operating at, or close to, full capacity.
Over the longer-term, Slovenia's ageing population will slow the growth of the country's labour force and its productive potential and will also have significant implications for the long-term sustainability of the country's public finances.
While Slovenian institutions have been strengthened in recent years alongside judicial and administrative reforms, the government's slow policy response remains a negative institutional feature.
The strong cyclical environment led the government budget to record a slight surplus in 2017. Given that Moody's expects continued strong, but slowing, growth rates in 2018 and 2019, the government is expected to generate a surplus of 0.4% of GDP in 2018 and 2019.
In light of this and Slovenia's expected robust growth rates, Moody's expects the debt-to-GDP ratio to continue to gradually fall after peaking in 2015 at 82.6%. By 2021, the ratio is forecast to stand at around 60%.
Slovenia's moderate susceptibility to event risk is largely driven by the banking sector, although it poses a much smaller risk to the sovereign's balance sheet than it did in 2014-15. Capital levels have significantly improved and the state has started to unwind its stakes in the country's banking system.
Moody's would consider upgrading Slovenia's government bond ratings following further progress on structural macroeconomic or institutional reforms. Signs that the country's structural fiscal vulnerabilities are being addressed would also put upward pressure on the rating.
Downward rating pressure would be generated by a substantial weakening of the macroeconomic environment or fiscal position.
A return of problems in the banking sector would also be negative, but recent recapitalization and restructuring implies that even an extreme event of this nature would not have the same negative impact as during the financial crisis.
Subscribers can access the report at:
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