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Korea, Government of
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Credit Opinion: Government of Korea – Aa2 Stable: Update following rating affirmation, outlook unchanged
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Rating Action:
Moody's affirms Korea's Aa2 rating; maintains stable outlook
18 Jun 2018
Singapore, June 18, 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today affirmed the Aa2 issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings of the Government of the Republic of Korea (South Korea), as well as its (P)Aa2 senior unsecured shelf rating. The outlook remains stable.
The key drivers for the rating affirmation are:
• South Korea's large and diversified economy will continue to demonstrate resilience to global shocks;
• Geopolitical risk owing to historical tensions versus North Korea have ebbed, but remain elevated; and
• South Korea's public finances will remain sound and are further enhanced by ongoing implementation of structural reforms.
South Korea's long-term foreign currency bond ceiling remains unchanged at Aa1. The foreign-currency deposit ceiling remains at Aa2, while the local-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain at Aaa. The short-term foreign-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at P-1.
RATINGS RATIONALE
RATIONALE FOR THE AFFIRMATION OF SOUTH KOREA's Aa2 RATING
FIRST DRIVER: ECONOMIC RESILIENCE TO GLOBAL SHOCKS
Moody's expects South Korea's healthy real GDP growth to continue in the near term, supported by the still favorable outlook for external demand, accommodative fiscal policies, and robust consumption on the back of steady income growth. Real GDP growth had accelerated to 3.1% in 2017 from 2.8% the year before, representing the fastest pace of growth among advanced G-20 economies. Over the medium term, South Korea's growth potential is likely to slow as an aging population leads to declines in the working age population. Moody's expects that these effects will be partly offset by comparatively strong productivity growth, supported by investment in innovation.
Beside robust growth potential, Moody's expects South Korea's economy to continue to show a high degree of resilience to shocks, including external shocks.
While rising trade protectionism poses risks for trade-reliant economies, the South Korean economy's broad diversification, high level of competitiveness, and fiscal space mitigates its export dependency. The range of South Korea's exports span from heavy industries, such as automobile manufacturing and shipbuilding, to more capital-intensive sectors such as semiconductors and other electronics, which in turn reflect the economy's integration in regionally dispersed supply chains across a wide range of product segments. International tourism and logistics have also bolstered services on the back of South Korea's advantages in infrastructure. The government also maintains the scope for countercyclical support for the economy.
Moreover, overall economic conditions are unlikely to be directly impacted by tightening global liquidity conditions or capital flow volatility on account of South Korea's very large external buffers. Moody's projects the current account surplus to remain in excess of 5% of GDP, while the net international investment position will also continue to record a net surplus as the economy's reliance on external financing—as represented by the moderating trend of external debt as a share of GDP—is low.