La quadratura del quadrato

Fitch cuts Italy's credit rating to 'BBB-' with stable outlook 28/04/2020 22:47 - RSF
April 28 (Reuters) - Rating agency Fitch cut Italy's credit rating to 'BBB-' on Tuesday, saying the downgrade reflects the significant impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the country's economy.

Fitch also changed Italy's outlook to stable from negative, adding that it reflects the agency's view that the European Central Bank's net asset purchases will facilitate the country's substantial fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
 
Ultima modifica:
non pensi che il nasdaq possa essere preso come riferimento? del resto è l'indice piu' cristallino e piu' accelerato sulla piazza; vincola a ribasso gli inversi dopo solo 25% del ciclo ...se supera a maggio è partito annuale inverso ed avrebbe davanti ancora il 75% del ciclo rimanente ovvero 9 mesi per fare nuovo top...il problema è cosa parte sotto perchè se è partito un 4 anni ed il top viene fatto dopo 12 mesi dal precedente massimo, poi ci restano 3 anni di sola discesa....ciao

Non lo seguo e quindi non so dirti :)
 
Bene, grazie come sempre ai Lettori del Thread :)

Le halfway dal Semestrale in su, grazie al Candelone di metà Marzo, sono sempre ai fatidici 19.800 pt.

Nel Trimestrale, oramai lo FTSEMIB ha superato la Mediana di Bollinger ed il segnale è di nuovo Trimestrale Indice da quella metà di Marzo.

Nel Mensile, questa Settimana, siamo saliti sopra la Mediana di Bollinger, ed anche questo è segnale di nuovo Mensile Indice dal 21 Aprile.

Insomma, a meno di sparate sotto i 17.000 pt FTSEMIB, tutto sembra evolvere in positivo;
in particolare, grandissima importanza ed attenzione alla fase di chiusura del Trimestrale Inverso, che sembra annunciarsi di soppiatto da questa Settimana :)


Nel breve,
da ieri è in costruzione il quinto ed ultimo T-2 del Tracy Inverso, al quale potrebbe seguire una Lingua T-1 che andrebbe a completare il T+1 Inverso;
oppure,
Tracy e T+1 Inverso potrebbero chiudersi assieme.

Il solito gioco della Mediana di Bollinger:
per il Tracy a 17.450 pt con estensione del movimento alla MM50 a 17.100 pt circa;
secondo me :ciapet:, per il T+1 è presto, Mediana sulla MM50 a circa 17.200 pt, troppo basso :p

Grosso modo, guardando il T-1 Inverso,
domani verso il mezzodì completeremo il secondo Giornaliero Inverso negativo
e poi Lunedì, sempre verso il mezzodì completeremo il terzo Giornaliero negativo.
Oppure, se il T-1 Inverso avrà struttura 3+2,
potrebbe concludersi già domani verso il mezzodì.

Io propendo per un 3+2,
quindi nel pomeriggio di domani discesa alla Mediana di Bollinger nel T-1 a 17.750 pt circa,
con massima estensione alla MM50 nel T-1 a circa 17.300 pt,
mi sa che poi ci vuole un T-4 Indice negativo, per completare il T-2 Indice, che ci potrebbe portare al Lunedì ................ stop alle fantasie :)
 
Ultima modifica:
penso non avremo movimenti grossi prima di fine mese, magari mi sbaglio ma devono fare operazione di "bellezza" per i risultati di fine mese, cercheranno di mantenere le posizioni

quindi, dubito scenderemo in maniera significativa prima di fine mese

probabilmente andranno a colmare il gap a 2960 circa


sono capaci di farlo stanotte, 2956 adesso
come al solito, scrollone serale e ripresa sui (quasi max)

continuano a usare lo stesso pattern per la loro felicità e (la mia)

hanno massacrato letteralmente gli shorts ETF ...
 
Ultima modifica:
Lasciando Outlook Stabile, mah...


no, l'outlook era negativo ora è stabile

visto che mamma BCE (Unione europea) ci salva il di dietro alla faccia di Salvini della Meloni, di Rinaldi di Borghi e di quel mucchio di strani esseri umani che non sa a cosa aggrapparsi per guadagnare quattro miseri voti

dal 22 aprile la il Governing Council della BCE ha deciso l'acquisto di titoli sul secondario anche quando sono qualificati junk ...

e il bello la gente aizzata da questi quattro genii spara sull'UE

... praticamente come spararsi sulle palle, anzi di più



ECB takes steps to mitigate impact of possible rating downgrades on collateral availability


  • ECB to grandfather until September 2021 eligibility of marketable assets used as collateral in Eurosystem credit operations falling below current minimum credit quality requirements
  • Appropriate haircuts will apply for assets that fall below the Eurosystem minimum credit quality requirements
  • Decision reinforces broader package of collateral easing measures adopted by the Governing Council on 7 April 2020, which will also remain in place until September 2021
  • ECB may decide further measures, if needed, to continue ensuring the smooth transmission of its monetary policy in all jurisdictions of the euro area
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) today adopted temporary measures to mitigate the effect on collateral availability of possible rating downgrades resulting from the economic fallout from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The decision complements the broader collateral easing package that was announced on 7 April 2020. Together these measures aim to ensure that banks have sufficient assets that they can mobilise as collateral with the Eurosystem to participate in the liquidity-providing operations and to continue providing funding to the euro area economy.

Specifically, the Governing Council decided to grandfather the eligibility of marketable assets and the issuers of such assets that fulfilled minimum credit quality requirements on 7 April 2020 in the event of a deterioration in credit ratings decided by the credit rating agencies accepted in the Eurosystem as long as the ratings remain above a certain credit quality level. By doing so, the Governing Council aims to avoid potential procyclical dynamics. This would ensure continued collateral availability, which is crucial for banks to provide funding to firms and households during the current challenging times.

The following decisions have been taken:

  • Marketable assets and issuers of these assets that met the minimum credit quality requirements for collateral eligibility on 7 April 2020 (BBB- for all assets, except asset-backed securities (ABSs)) will continue to be eligible in case of rating downgrades, as long as their rating remains at or above credit quality step 5 (CQS5, equivalent to a rating of BB) on the Eurosystem harmonised rating scale. This ensures that assets and issuers that were investment grade at the time the Governing Council adopted the package of collateral easing measures remain eligible even if their rating falls two notches below the current minimum credit quality requirement of the Eurosystem.
  • To be grandfathered, the assets need to continue to fulfil all other existing collateral eligibility criteria.
  • Future issuances from grandfathered issuers will also be eligible provided they fulfil all other collateral eligibility criteria.
  • Currently eligible covered bond programmes will also be grandfathered, under the same conditions.
  • Currently eligible ABSs to which a rating threshold in the general framework of CQS2 applies (equivalent to a rating of A-) will be grandfathered as long as their rating remains at or above CQS4 (equivalent to a rating of BB+).
  • Assets that fall below the minimum credit quality requirements will be subject to haircuts based on their actual ratings.
Non-marketable assets are not part of the scope of the temporary grandfathering. All measures will enter into effect as soon as the relevant legal acts enter into force. The measures will apply until September 2021 when the first early repayment of the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO-III) takes place. The same end date will also apply to the collateral easing measures announced on 7 April 2020.

The ECB may decide, if and when necessary, to take additional measures to further mitigate the impact of rating downgrades, particularly with a view to ensuring the smooth transmission of its monetary policy in all jurisdictions of the euro area.
 
aumentano le posizioni short ...

Schermata 2020-04-30 alle 13.30.59.jpg
 
no, l'outlook era negativo ora è stabile

visto che mamma BCE (Unione europea) ci salva il di dietro alla faccia di Salvini della Meloni, di Rinaldi di Borghi e di quel mucchio di strani esseri umani che non sa a cosa aggrapparsi per guadagnare quattro miseri voti

dal 22 aprile la il Governing Council della BCE ha deciso l'acquisto di titoli sul secondario anche quando sono qualificati junk ...

e il bello la gente aizzata da questi quattro genii spara sull'UE

... praticamente come spararsi sulle palle, anzi di più



ECB takes steps to mitigate impact of possible rating downgrades on collateral availability


  • ECB to grandfather until September 2021 eligibility of marketable assets used as collateral in Eurosystem credit operations falling below current minimum credit quality requirements
  • Appropriate haircuts will apply for assets that fall below the Eurosystem minimum credit quality requirements
  • Decision reinforces broader package of collateral easing measures adopted by the Governing Council on 7 April 2020, which will also remain in place until September 2021
  • ECB may decide further measures, if needed, to continue ensuring the smooth transmission of its monetary policy in all jurisdictions of the euro area
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) today adopted temporary measures to mitigate the effect on collateral availability of possible rating downgrades resulting from the economic fallout from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The decision complements the broader collateral easing package that was announced on 7 April 2020. Together these measures aim to ensure that banks have sufficient assets that they can mobilise as collateral with the Eurosystem to participate in the liquidity-providing operations and to continue providing funding to the euro area economy.

Specifically, the Governing Council decided to grandfather the eligibility of marketable assets and the issuers of such assets that fulfilled minimum credit quality requirements on 7 April 2020 in the event of a deterioration in credit ratings decided by the credit rating agencies accepted in the Eurosystem as long as the ratings remain above a certain credit quality level. By doing so, the Governing Council aims to avoid potential procyclical dynamics. This would ensure continued collateral availability, which is crucial for banks to provide funding to firms and households during the current challenging times.

The following decisions have been taken:

  • Marketable assets and issuers of these assets that met the minimum credit quality requirements for collateral eligibility on 7 April 2020 (BBB- for all assets, except asset-backed securities (ABSs)) will continue to be eligible in case of rating downgrades, as long as their rating remains at or above credit quality step 5 (CQS5, equivalent to a rating of BB) on the Eurosystem harmonised rating scale. This ensures that assets and issuers that were investment grade at the time the Governing Council adopted the package of collateral easing measures remain eligible even if their rating falls two notches below the current minimum credit quality requirement of the Eurosystem.
  • To be grandfathered, the assets need to continue to fulfil all other existing collateral eligibility criteria.
  • Future issuances from grandfathered issuers will also be eligible provided they fulfil all other collateral eligibility criteria.
  • Currently eligible covered bond programmes will also be grandfathered, under the same conditions.
  • Currently eligible ABSs to which a rating threshold in the general framework of CQS2 applies (equivalent to a rating of A-) will be grandfathered as long as their rating remains at or above CQS4 (equivalent to a rating of BB+).
  • Assets that fall below the minimum credit quality requirements will be subject to haircuts based on their actual ratings.
Non-marketable assets are not part of the scope of the temporary grandfathering. All measures will enter into effect as soon as the relevant legal acts enter into force. The measures will apply until September 2021 when the first early repayment of the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO-III) takes place. The same end date will also apply to the collateral easing measures announced on 7 April 2020.

The ECB may decide, if and when necessary, to take additional measures to further mitigate the impact of rating downgrades, particularly with a view to ensuring the smooth transmission of its monetary policy in all jurisdictions of the euro area.
Sveglia..
ITALEXIT: MES E BCE … IPOCRITI! | icebergfinanza
 

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