Obbligazioni societarie La saga della famiglia Espírito Santo: cosa succederà alle obbligazioni BES ed ESFG?

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Dal Ft:
Novo Banco faces struggle to secure bids
Managers warn offers likely to not exceed half of book value
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amorgos34 ha scritto:
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The Portuguese government is pushing for a deal to be agreed, if not completed, before next October’s election.
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L'articolo del FT è molto interessante e merita di essere letto per intero.
Se devo esprimere un parere personale, siamo ancora alle schermaglie che precedono il cuore della discussione.
Nel caso specifico, viene sottolineato il punto di vista dei possibili acquirenti, i quali, da che mondo è mondo, hanno tutto l'interesse a sminuire il valore di ciò che vogliono acquistare.
Basti pensare che nessuno ha ancora potuto esaminare nel dettaglio i conti del business che sarà messo all'asta.
Discorsi più significativi, per capire che piega prenderà la vicenda, saranno possibili tra qualche settimana, quando BNP inizierà a interloquire, dati alla mano, con i vari pretendenti:



Novo Banco takeover bid might fail to clear €4.9bn, managers warn
By Martin Arnold in London and Peter Wise in LisbonAuthor alerts

The new managers of Portugal’s Novo Banco have been warned they will struggle to attract takeover bids worth more than half the €4.9bn injected to rescue the lender from the wreckage of Banco Espírito Santo.
Several rivals have indicated an interest in acquiring Novo Banco, the good bank separated from the toxic assets of the Espírito Santo family’s failed banking empire in August. Likely bidders include Portugal’s Banco BPI and Spain’s Santander.
The bank has been put up for sale in an auction being arranged on behalf of Portugal’s central bank by France’s BNP Paribas. The Portuguese government is pushing for a deal to be agreed, if not completed, before next October’s election.
However, one investment banker who recently met Novo Banco’s new management team said they “would be lucky to get half the book value” of €4.9bn because of the risks still hanging over the bank and Portugal’s weak economic prospects.
Another specialist in banking deals in southern Europe said the auction could even fall apart if the bank fails to attract high enough offers. The other Portuguese banks are on the hook for any losses if the bank is sold for less than €4.9bn.
Pedro Passos Coelho, Portugal’s prime minister, has already acknowledged the possibility of the sale not raising €4.9bn, saying taxpayers could lose money given that Caixa Geral de Depósitos, a state-owned bank, is one of the biggest contributors to the bank resolution fund.
“It’s out of the question that Novo Banco can be sold for anything close to €4.9bn,” said a senior banking analyst in Lisbon, adding: “No Portuguese bank is worth the book value of its equity capital.”
Fernando Ulrich, chief executive of Banco BPI, said recently he was “certain Novo Banco is not worth €4.9bn, but neither is it worth nothing”.
However, another Lisbon banker described suggestions that Novo Banco was not worth its book value as “buyers’ talk” coming from bidders “trying to pressure a fast sale at a big discount”. Novo Banco declined to comment.
Bankers expect Novo Banco to recoup part of a €3.3bn credit line to BES Angola, which was transferred to the “good bank” already full provisioned. Any amount recovered would go straight to equity and could make a crucial difference to the value of the bank.
There may be “residual fears” about potential hidden liabilities, the banker said, but Novo Banco had been cleared of €7bn in toxic assets shifted into its “bad bank” and it was difficult to imagine that “any big problems remained undiscovered”.
However, analysts fear there have been significant outflows of deposits from Novo Banco since it was split off from BES, particularly as purchases of state savings certificates have hit record highs over the past two months.
Potential losses from exposure to parts of the collapsed Espírito Santo business empire also add to the difficulty in assessing the bank’s fair value.
Eduardo Stock da Cunha, a Portuguese banker on secondment from the UK’s Lloyds Banking Group, took over as chief executive of Novo Banco last month and one of his priorities will be to prepare the bank for sale to new shareholders. A forensic audit of the lender ordered by the central bank is due to be completed shortly.
Under the terms of the resolution, Novo Banco is due to be sold within two years. But bankers said BNP was pushing for first-round bids to be submitted early next year. Maria Luís Albuquerque, finance minister, said last week her aim was to sell it “as quickly as possible”, but not “hurriedly or cheaply”.
If Novo Banco were to go for only €2.5bn, Millennium BCP, for example, would stand to lose about €380m net of taxes, having contributed 24 per cent of the capital injected into the lender by the bank resolution fund. Bankers say this would be manageable, especially as payments are likely to be deferred over several years.
 
Rottweiler ha scritto:
L'articolo del FT è molto interessante e merita di essere letto per intero.
Se devo esprimere un parere personale, siamo ancora alle schermaglie che precedono il cuore della discussione.
Nel caso specifico, viene sottolineato il punto di vista dei possibili acquirenti, i quali, da che mondo è mondo, hanno tutto l'interesse a sminuire il valore di ciò che vogliono acquistare.
Basti pensare che nessuno ha ancora potuto esaminare nel dettaglio i conti del business che sarà messo all'asta.
Discorsi più significativi, per capire che piega prenderà la vicenda, saranno possibili tra qualche settimana, quando BNP inizierà a interloquire, dati alla mano, con i vari pretendenti:



Novo Banco takeover bid might fail to clear €4.9bn, managers warn
By Martin Arnold in London and Peter Wise in LisbonAuthor alerts

The new managers of Portugal’s Novo Banco have been warned they will struggle to attract takeover bids worth more than half the €4.9bn injected to rescue the lender from the wreckage of Banco Espírito Santo.
Several rivals have indicated an interest in acquiring Novo Banco, the good bank separated from the toxic assets of the Espírito Santo family’s failed banking empire in August. Likely bidders include Portugal’s Banco BPI and Spain’s Santander.
The bank has been put up for sale in an auction being arranged on behalf of Portugal’s central bank by France’s BNP Paribas. The Portuguese government is pushing for a deal to be agreed, if not completed, before next October’s election.
However, one investment banker who recently met Novo Banco’s new management team said they “would be lucky to get half the book value” of €4.9bn because of the risks still hanging over the bank and Portugal’s weak economic prospects.
Another specialist in banking deals in southern Europe said the auction could even fall apart if the bank fails to attract high enough offers. The other Portuguese banks are on the hook for any losses if the bank is sold for less than €4.9bn.
Pedro Passos Coelho, Portugal’s prime minister, has already acknowledged the possibility of the sale not raising €4.9bn, saying taxpayers could lose money given that Caixa Geral de Depósitos, a state-owned bank, is one of the biggest contributors to the bank resolution fund.
“It’s out of the question that Novo Banco can be sold for anything close to €4.9bn,” said a senior banking analyst in Lisbon, adding: “No Portuguese bank is worth the book value of its equity capital.”
Fernando Ulrich, chief executive of Banco BPI, said recently he was “certain Novo Banco is not worth €4.9bn, but neither is it worth nothing”.
However, another Lisbon banker described suggestions that Novo Banco was not worth its book value as “buyers’ talk” coming from bidders “trying to pressure a fast sale at a big discount”. Novo Banco declined to comment.
Bankers expect Novo Banco to recoup part of a €3.3bn credit line to BES Angola, which was transferred to the “good bank” already full provisioned. Any amount recovered would go straight to equity and could make a crucial difference to the value of the bank.
There may be “residual fears” about potential hidden liabilities, the banker said, but Novo Banco had been cleared of €7bn in toxic assets shifted into its “bad bank” and it was difficult to imagine that “any big problems remained undiscovered”.
However, analysts fear there have been significant outflows of deposits from Novo Banco since it was split off from BES, particularly as purchases of state savings certificates have hit record highs over the past two months.
Potential losses from exposure to parts of the collapsed Espírito Santo business empire also add to the difficulty in assessing the bank’s fair value.
Eduardo Stock da Cunha, a Portuguese banker on secondment from the UK’s Lloyds Banking Group, took over as chief executive of Novo Banco last month and one of his priorities will be to prepare the bank for sale to new shareholders. A forensic audit of the lender ordered by the central bank is due to be completed shortly.
Under the terms of the resolution, Novo Banco is due to be sold within two years. But bankers said BNP was pushing for first-round bids to be submitted early next year. Maria Luís Albuquerque, finance minister, said last week her aim was to sell it “as quickly as possible”, but not “hurriedly or cheaply”.
If Novo Banco were to go for only €2.5bn, Millennium BCP, for example, would stand to lose about €380m net of taxes, having contributed 24 per cent of the capital injected into the lender by the bank resolution fund. Bankers say this would be manageable, especially as payments are likely to be deferred over several years.
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articolo molto interessante. Peraltro a me pare anche positivo.

A ce molto interesse
B vogliono chiudere prima delle elezioni
C Bnp vuole avere i bid addirittura per inizio anno
D Lo stato è a conoscenza che non recupererà tutto eppure non mi pare ne facciano un grosso problema.
E è normale che gli avoltoi sapendo che devono vendere in fretta provano a fare l'affare.


Se lo stato non si fa problemi a vendere sotto patrimonio netto che peraltro mi pare normale visto la quotazioni delle banche della periferia.
Basta pensare alle nostre banche italiane alcune quotano ben meno della metà del patrimonio netto.

Direi che il resto è ottimo per noi.:)
 
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