Brevissimo commento di SG
Today, Novo Banco (NB) reported its results for the five-month period from its inception on 4 August to year-end 2014. Novo's smaller scope, a challenging transition period and seasonality make comparisons with the former BES's results difficult. That said, in its reduced format, NB currently exhibits weak underlying profitability. Recurrent revenues eroded significantly (€492m vs €1.9bn for BES at FY13) but were somewhat offset by a positive own-debt impact of €296m. Despite good cost management, NB's underlying PPI of €124m fell short of total provisions of €699m. Although this figure incorporates various one-offs (e.g. the write down of the PT/Oi stake and various asset impairments) totaling c. €411m, it pushed NB's underlying PPI to a c.€288m loss. Including the one-off impact of €177m on net tax liabilities arising from a higher tax rate, the bank calculates that it posted a recurrent net loss of €230m for the period. With revenue growth constrained by low interest rates and deleveraging, a significant reduction in LLPs is required for NB to return to profit, in our opinion.
Asset quality still weak
Credit at risk (NPLs) increased by 17.3%, with the NPL ratio reaching 16.4%, and NPLs and restructured credits totalled €10.7bn, or 26.8% of the loan book. The devaluation of loan collateral inflated LLPs, with the coverage ratio falling by 10% to 78% since 4 August, showing that NPLs have been increasing faster than provisions. In addition, NB has €4bn of foreclosed assets, 31% of which is covered by provisions.
Customer deposits recovery is encouraging
More positively, we note that NB's deposit run has been checked, with deposits somewhat recovering (up 2.4% since August 4), showing that the franchise has been salvaged thanks to the bank's nationalisation. ECB funding has also been reduced significantly (down by €5.1bn to €8.5bn at YE14).
€4.9bn price tag looks rich
The net loss for the period, combined with a larger pension deficit, has weighed on the bank's phased-in CET1 regulatory solvency, which has fallen from 10.3% at NB's inception to 9.6%. However, the Bank of Portugal's 22 December 2014 resolution that €548m of BES's debt (Oak Finance Luxembourg) would not be transferred to NB somewhat offset the loss for the period. The bank reported €5.48bn of net assets at year-end, including €4.9bn of equity provided by the country's bank resolution fund. NB's challenging profitability outlook and the risk of further balance sheet restatements despite the significant asset cleaning of recent years will be the main factors that prospective buyers consider when making a non-binding offer by month-end. The burden of a deep restructuring or complex merger may only become palatable if the price is consistent with the financial hurdles to the acquisition, and this may be contingent on the Portuguese government accepting a discount