Obbligazioni societarie La saga della famiglia Espírito Santo: cosa succederà alle obbligazioni BES ed ESFG?

imho la strada piu' rapida per ricapitalizzare per bes e' sottoscrivere un coco e successivamente un adc
vediamo che succede
 
Our assumption that the high degree of connectivity between BES and GES would expedite a restructuring plan that would benefit ESFG has proved to be incorrect, and increasingly looks like recoveries may well be tested at ESFG given the current distressed level for the debt. In our opinion, if ESI has to file, then the exposure which ESFG has to the GES group would imply that there is a great likelihood that recoveries at ESFG will be negatively impacted given its disclosed €2.3bn exposure to the GES group. We think that the delay in presenting the ESI restructuring plan invariably means that it is less likely that this will be met with success and thereby not resolve the immediate refinancing risk at the GES group companies. Further, the restructuring plan, will likely drive losses which will be felt at associated entities within the group.
· The two potential outcomes considered have a different blended recovery rate in which BES could be better off when CP retail holders are super-senior and the bank won’t have any incremental contingent liabilities to retail creditors. The impact on the CET1 Capital could vary between a range of 120bps to 160bps while the average recovery rate for the bank’s exposure into GES could be somewhere in the range of 40% to 60%. The potential impact looks manageable to us as transitional/ fully-loaded pro-forma CET1 Capital ratio reached 11.4%/9.6% in 1Q14. Even after the losses arising from a potential ESFG default event, we estimate the bank would still have a substantial capital buffer over the minimum 8% for the AQR (€1.2bn / €1.4bn) and the stress test (€2.8bn / €3bn). Recoveries could be higher if the BES market cap improves or if the recovery from GES companies is higher than the zero we assume.
· Under our two scenarios, we expect that BES has sufficient capital to deal with the losses which we have modeled for the exposures to both ESFG and GES groups. However, we would expect that valuations will likely remain contingent on developments within the GES group, with particular emphasis on the outcome of the restructuring plan and whether this proves to be successful in avoiding the unwind of these entities. Under these circumstances, we would anticipate potential weakness and volatility in BES spreads, as investor sentiment will likely be negatively impacted and at the margin investors might consider some of the tail scenarios which we outline, including liquidity and litigation risks. Hence, while we feel more comfortable with BES debt, both senior and subordinated, given the recent more granular disclosures and the scenarios which we have modeled above, we think investor sentiment is still tied to potential developments at the GES group level and as such we would not exclude more attractive entry levels for BES debt, particularly on the LTII instruments where concerns on burden sharing in certain downside scenarios may increase.
e non chiedete fonte pls
 
solovaloreaggiunto ha scritto:
Our assumption that the high degree of connectivity between BES and GES would expedite a restructuring plan that would benefit ESFG has proved to be incorrect, and increasingly looks like recoveries may well be tested at ESFG given the current distressed level for the debt. In our opinion, if ESI has to file, then the exposure which ESFG has to the GES group would imply that there is a great likelihood that recoveries at ESFG will be negatively impacted given its disclosed €2.3bn exposure to the GES group. We think that the delay in presenting the ESI restructuring plan invariably means that it is less likely that this will be met with success and thereby not resolve the immediate refinancing risk at the GES group companies. Further, the restructuring plan, will likely drive losses which will be felt at associated entities within the group.
· The two potential outcomes considered have a different blended recovery rate in which BES could be better off when CP retail holders are super-senior and the bank won’t have any incremental contingent liabilities to retail creditors. The impact on the CET1 Capital could vary between a range of 120bps to 160bps while the average recovery rate for the bank’s exposure into GES could be somewhere in the range of 40% to 60%. The potential impact looks manageable to us as transitional/ fully-loaded pro-forma CET1 Capital ratio reached 11.4%/9.6% in 1Q14. Even after the losses arising from a potential ESFG default event, we estimate the bank would still have a substantial capital buffer over the minimum 8% for the AQR (€1.2bn / €1.4bn) and the stress test (€2.8bn / €3bn). Recoveries could be higher if the BES market cap improves or if the recovery from GES companies is higher than the zero we assume.
· Under our two scenarios, we expect that BES has sufficient capital to deal with the losses which we have modeled for the exposures to both ESFG and GES groups. However, we would expect that valuations will likely remain contingent on developments within the GES group, with particular emphasis on the outcome of the restructuring plan and whether this proves to be successful in avoiding the unwind of these entities. Under these circumstances, we would anticipate potential weakness and volatility in BES spreads, as investor sentiment will likely be negatively impacted and at the margin investors might consider some of the tail scenarios which we outline, including liquidity and litigation risks. Hence, while we feel more comfortable with BES debt, both senior and subordinated, given the recent more granular disclosures and the scenarios which we have modeled above, we think investor sentiment is still tied to potential developments at the GES group level and as such we would not exclude more attractive entry levels for BES debt, particularly on the LTII instruments where concerns on burden sharing in certain downside scenarios may increase.
e non chiedete fonte pls
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Grazie.
 
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