Rating Action:
Moody's confirms Novo Banco's deposit ratings at Caa1, outlook positive
07 May 2018
Madrid, May 07, 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service has today confirmed the long-term deposit ratings of Novo Banco, S.A. (Novo Banco) at Caa1. The rating action is triggered by the disclosure on 26 April 2018 of Novo Banco's 2017 audited financial statements and reflects the agency's assessment of the bank's liability structure at year-end 2017, incorporating the changes to its balance sheet following the completion of the liability management exercise (LME) on 4 October 2017. The outlook on the long-term deposit ratings has been changed to positive from Ratings under Review.
The ratings agency has also taken the following actions on Novo Banco: (1) affirmed the bank's baseline credit assessment (BCA) and adjusted BCA at caa2; (2) affirmed the bank's long-term senior unsecured debt ratings at Caa2; and (3) upgraded the bank's long-term Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessment to B2(cr) from B3(cr). The outlook on the long-term senior unsecured debt ratings remains positive.
The short-term deposit and Commercial Paper ratings as well as the short-term CR Assessment remain unaffected by today's rating action at Not Prime and Not Prime(cr) respectively.
The affirmation of Novo Banco's standalone BCA reflects the rating agency's view that the bank's improved solvency position remains constrained by a very large stock of problematic assets and loss making operations.
The positive outlook reflects Moody's view that upward pressure could arise on the bank's long-term deposit ratings based on Novo Banco's funding plan and expected balance sheet deleveraging, leading to lower loss given failure and higher ratings uplift under Moody's Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis. The positive outlook also reflects the benefits to Novo Banco's weak credit fundamentals if the bank starts to deliver on the key targets of its restructuring plan, namely a reduction of problematic assets and downsizing of its operations.
Today's rating action concludes the rating review on the long-term deposit ratings that was initiated on 5 April 2017 and extended on 6 October 2017 and 22 February 2018.
A full list of affected ratings can be found at the end of this press release.
RATINGS RATIONALE
---RATIONALE FOR THE AFFIRMATION OF THE BCA
Today's affirmation of Novo Banco's standalone BCA at caa2 reflects the ongoing challenges to the bank's credit profile stemming from the bank's very weak asset risk and loss making operations.
In affirming the bank's BCA, Moody's has taken into consideration the EUR1 billion capital injection made by Lone Star late last year after it acquired a 75% stake in Novo Banco's capital on 18 October 2017. The rating agency is also considering the benefits from the LME that resulted in upfront capital gains of EUR210 million and interest savings over the next five years.
As part of the sale process, the European Commission (EC) approved a so-called "contingent capital agreement" up to a maximum EUR3.89 billion on 11 October 2017, that will be compensated by the Portuguese resolution fund (currently holding a 25% stake of the bank's capital). This mechanism was triggered at end-December 2017 and resulted in a compensation of EUR791.7 million, on account of the revaluation of a pre-established set of assets, which had a net book value of EUR5.4 billion compared with EUR7.9 billion at end-June 2016. Novo Banco reported a loss of EUR1.4 billion at end-December 2017, mainly resulting from the high impairments related to these assets. However, the impact on capital was offset by the EUR1 billion capital injection, as well as by the reduction in risk weighted assets resulting from the bank's ongoing balance sheet deleveraging. At end-December 2017, Moody's key capital metric, the tangible common equity to risk weighted assets, improved to 7.7% from 6.7% a year earlier.
With an estimated non-performing asset (NPA, non-performing loans + foreclosed real estate assets) ratio of around 37% at end-December 2017, Novo Banco is burdened by a very weak asset risk. More positively, the recent extraordinary provisioning effort has increased the bank's NPA coverage to an estimated 49% at end-December 2017 from 43% a year earlier. Despite these improvements, Novo Banco still faces ongoing challenges to its improved solvency given the very large stock of NPAs and ongoing uncertainties regarding the bank's de-risking strategy. This is captured in its caa2 BCA.
The bank's BCA also reflects ongoing profitability challenges. Moody's acknowledges the commitment of the new shareholders to a five-year restructuring plan, approved by the EC at the closing of Novo Banco's sale. The plan envisages a transformation of the bank's operations, risk and business profile and wind-down of non-core assets. Notwithstanding the long-term benefits of this plan, the rating agency considers that it is still uncertain when Novo Banco will be able to achieve break-even, and the effectiveness of the measures that will be implemented to ensure the future viability of the bank.
--RATIONALE FOR THE DEPOSIT AND SENIOR DEBT RATINGS
The confirmation of Novo Banco's Caa1 long-term deposit ratings and the affirmation of its Caa2 long-term senior debt ratings reflect (1) the affirmation of the bank's caa2 BCA; (2) the outcome of Moody's revised Advanced LGF analysis that indicates moderate loss-given-failure for senior debt creditors and low for depositors, resulting in no uplift and one notch of uplift respectively from the BCA, and (3) low probability of government support that results in no further uplift for the senior debt and deposit ratings.
As part of the assessment of Novo Banco's liability structure after the completion of the LME at end-December 2017, the rating agency has changed the standard assumption of junior deposits of its Advanced LGF analysis. Moody's views that around 26% of Novo Banco's deposits can be considered junior and qualify as bail-in-able under the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), as opposed to the previous assumption of 10%. This higher volume of non-preferred deposits results in an unchanged one-notch uplift for deposits and no uplift for senior debt.
--RATIONALE FOR THE POSITIVE OUTLOOK
The positive outlook reflects Moody's view that upward pressure could arise on the bank's long-term deposit and senior debt ratings upon the planned issuance of EUR400 million of subordinated debt as part of the EC's approved restructuring plan, as well as further balance sheet deleveraging that could result in a lower loss given failure for these instruments.
The positive outlook also reflects the potential benefit to the bank's weak credit fundamentals should Novo Banco start to deliver on the key targets of its restructuring plan, namely an improvement to its asset risk profile and a transformation of its operations. The bank's credit profile could also benefit from enhanced visibility of its medium-term strategy and timeline of the measures that are contemplated to ensure Novo Banco's future viability.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN
The standalone BCA of Novo Banco could be upgraded if the bank makes progress in reducing its stock of problematic assets and on restructuring its operations.
Novo Banco's long-term deposit and senior debt ratings could also be upgraded as a result of the issuance of the planned EUR400 million subordinated bond and/or a substantial reduction in the size of its balance sheet, which would indicate lower loss-given failure faced by the bank's deposits and senior debt.
Given the positive outlook, a downgrade of Novo Banco's long-term deposit and senior debt ratings is currently unlikely. However, downward pressure on the bank's standalone BCA could result if the bank's risk-absorption capacity deteriorates due to a further deterioration of its asset risk, or larger-than-anticipated losses; and/or if the bank's liquidity deteriorates from its current position.
In addition, any change to the BCA would also be likely to affect deposit and debt ratings, as they are linked to the standalone BCA.