non ho ben capito il perchè...forse per questa questione dei migranti..
Utente Magician:
The announcement by Mexico President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, known as AMLO, that he will be cancelling the planned construction of a new airport for Mexico City in the valley of Texcoco, was not what the markets wanted to hear. Much money has already been sunk into the airport project, which has issued bonds internationally to finance construction. In response, bond traders pushed yields on Mexico’s government bonds to their highest this decade relative to U.S. Treasuries.
Evidently, the market took this as a critical test of the fledgling administration. Sticking with the airport was seen as a sign of responsibility, continuity, commitment to growth and a willingness to follow through with commitments to international investors. It failed on all those points..
So there are risks and opportunities here. But I would suggest it is best to look at Mexico in conjunction with Latin America’s other powerhouse economy, Brazil. Both have markets with relatively small free floats, where foreign investors can have an outsized impact. As much money is invested through “Latin American” funds, or through emerging-market funds, there are many portfolio managers whose job is effectively to choose between the two. The result is extraordinary swings and overreactions, usually led by politics.
Generally, any emphatic market judgment on politics in one country is likely to be reversed within a year or two. Any judgment is also likely to have a wildly inflated impact on the price of assets in the two countries.
In Brazil, investors have convinced themselves that Jair Bolsonaro will be a market-friendly president, even though (unlike AMLO) he appears to have little interest in the economy, and set out his stall on a series of aggressive, if not brutal, measures to deal with Brazil’s high crime rate. Unlike AMLO, he is unproven as a manager and has never tackled anything as difficult as running Mexico City.
As with AMLO, he will have an opportunity over the next few months to make a series of symbolic gestures. His choices of treasury minister and central bank governor are crucial, as is his choice of the first few measures he chooses to prioritize in his dealings with the legislature.
Political risk in both Brazil and Mexico remains high, even though we now know the identity of their presidents for the next few years. The market’s current judgment could prove to be correct. But the balance of probability points to Mexico having a greater chance of revival from here than Brazil.