After a fairly rocky month, stocks closed out July with solid gains, extending the S&P 500’s
SPX, +0.49% winning streak to four months. Historically, when the market gains in April, May, June and July of midterm election years, the market has finished higher in that year, according to Saut.
“The history of midterm election years is that stocks become dicey in August, but tend to rally as we approach the midterm elections,” said Saut, in a note. “Also worth a mention is that going back decades shows that when the stock market is up in April, May, June and July in midterm election years, in the two years that has happened (1954 and 1958), after an August Angst moment, stocks have finished the year stronger.”
The S&P 500 was up 0.3% in April, 2.2% in May, 0.5% in June and 3.6% in July. The large-cap index jumped 45% in 1954 and rallied 38% in 1958. So far this year, the benchmark has risen 5.3%.