NON ESSERE IL PRiMO A PROVARE LE COSE NUOVE,NE L'ULTIMO AD.....
- Creatore Discussione olly®
- Data di Inizio
FrankBanfi
Nettuno
speriamo pene ieri mi sono accattato un po di spf
io sto controllando 'sta schifezza...
Allegati
silut
Forumer storico
prenditi sul fib come riferimento il max e il min di oggi....e tira il fibbonacci....
pull sul 50% al millimetro...graficamente si dovrebbe andare oltre i minimi....senza rompere quota 630 vediam
DRIVE
Massaio di Voghera
molto interessante questo studio
It would take some research, but is easy to argue that the 200DMA is the most important moving average in terms of market support/resistance, at least as far as equities are concerned. Due largely to the fact that the moving average test out very well in comparison to other time frames, the 200DMA is used by many institutions as a trend following and risk management levels that forces adjustments in portfolios. We can, at a minimum, agree there is more than normal business to be done at the 200DMA.
A very prominent springboard trade off of the S&P 500’s 200DMA occurred as recently as June 2nd, when the market was coming off lows and the 200DMA was at 1105.59. That day, the S&P 500 index traded intra-day through the 200DMA to 1105.67 before pulling back and closing at 1102.82 for a potential intra-day springboard reversal. The S&P then proceeded to lose 4.27% over the next 4 days.
I was interested in quantifying the odds of the 200DMA holding onto an initial crossover so I scanned data from 1970 through 2009 (leaving 2010 for forward performance calculations) and found 95 occasions where the market had closed above the 200DMA for the first time in at least 10 trading sessions. Not surprisingly, I found that on this first day after finishing above the 200DMA, the S&P 500 was actually down the following day on 50 out of the 95 days as the market attempts to find out who is in charge, the breakout traders or the springboard traders.
The springboard reversal trade doesn’t always occur intra-day as it did on June 2nd and will on occasion take a day or two to materialize. Last week, I was particularly interested to see if we could hold the 200DMA level for a few days. On the two days after the initial June 15th crossover, we traded slightly below the 200DMA intra-day on both days before closing above it, a sign of strength as we were able to withstand the attempts at the springboard reversal. In fact, as of today, Monday (June 21st), we have now closed above the 200DMA five days in a row.
I reviewed the 95 crossover cases previously identified and screened them further for instances where, not only did the S&P 500 break the 200DMA, but then avoided the springboard reversal by closing above the evolving 200DMA for five consecutive days, as we have just done. This narrowed the sample space from 95 to 49 and measuring from the close of the fifth day after the crossover (where we are today), I found the S&P’s performance to be above normal over the next one month, up 40 out of 49 (81.6%) cases for an average gain of 2.85%. As a point of comparison, measuring from the aforementioned 95 cases on the first day that the market crosses the 200DMA, the S&P was 64-31 (67.4%) one month later for an average gain of 1.51%.
Summarizing the 200DMA springboard implications, it is not only important to cross the 200 DMA, but equally important to sustain it for a few days as we have done over the last week to avoid seeing it become a failed pattern. The 200DMA is currently 1110.72, with the index closing today at 1113.20.
There are other bullish factors in play at this time to support the positive aspects of the 200DMA study that should also be considered:
It would take some research, but is easy to argue that the 200DMA is the most important moving average in terms of market support/resistance, at least as far as equities are concerned. Due largely to the fact that the moving average test out very well in comparison to other time frames, the 200DMA is used by many institutions as a trend following and risk management levels that forces adjustments in portfolios. We can, at a minimum, agree there is more than normal business to be done at the 200DMA.
A very prominent springboard trade off of the S&P 500’s 200DMA occurred as recently as June 2nd, when the market was coming off lows and the 200DMA was at 1105.59. That day, the S&P 500 index traded intra-day through the 200DMA to 1105.67 before pulling back and closing at 1102.82 for a potential intra-day springboard reversal. The S&P then proceeded to lose 4.27% over the next 4 days.
I was interested in quantifying the odds of the 200DMA holding onto an initial crossover so I scanned data from 1970 through 2009 (leaving 2010 for forward performance calculations) and found 95 occasions where the market had closed above the 200DMA for the first time in at least 10 trading sessions. Not surprisingly, I found that on this first day after finishing above the 200DMA, the S&P 500 was actually down the following day on 50 out of the 95 days as the market attempts to find out who is in charge, the breakout traders or the springboard traders.
The springboard reversal trade doesn’t always occur intra-day as it did on June 2nd and will on occasion take a day or two to materialize. Last week, I was particularly interested to see if we could hold the 200DMA level for a few days. On the two days after the initial June 15th crossover, we traded slightly below the 200DMA intra-day on both days before closing above it, a sign of strength as we were able to withstand the attempts at the springboard reversal. In fact, as of today, Monday (June 21st), we have now closed above the 200DMA five days in a row.
I reviewed the 95 crossover cases previously identified and screened them further for instances where, not only did the S&P 500 break the 200DMA, but then avoided the springboard reversal by closing above the evolving 200DMA for five consecutive days, as we have just done. This narrowed the sample space from 95 to 49 and measuring from the close of the fifth day after the crossover (where we are today), I found the S&P’s performance to be above normal over the next one month, up 40 out of 49 (81.6%) cases for an average gain of 2.85%. As a point of comparison, measuring from the aforementioned 95 cases on the first day that the market crosses the 200DMA, the S&P was 64-31 (67.4%) one month later for an average gain of 1.51%.
Summarizing the 200DMA springboard implications, it is not only important to cross the 200 DMA, but equally important to sustain it for a few days as we have done over the last week to avoid seeing it become a failed pattern. The 200DMA is currently 1110.72, with the index closing today at 1113.20.
There are other bullish factors in play at this time to support the positive aspects of the 200DMA study that should also be considered:
- There is the strong intermediate tape activity that we outlined on June 2 in our Confusion Index article.
- Much has been made of the weak May-June seasonal tendencies (Sell in May and Go Away), but the S&P has actually been up over the next month (June 21-July 21) in 18 of the last 30 years, as the market usually behaves well in the days leading up to the July 4 holiday weekend.
- On the fundamental side, although the NBER LEI has not been shown to be a great stock market timing tool, it is my opinion that when coming out of a recession, it is a positive for equities that the LEI has been up 13 out of the last 14 months with a very strong May showing, suggesting that second quarter earnings have the potential to again exceed expectations next month.
Capt.BlackBeard
Forumer storico
Allegati
silut
Forumer storico
vedremo se uno ci si paga queste o no ...
vedo che pure te studi....
bravo bravo 
ERRY
ASTA LA FAIGA SEMPRE
per queste uso il sistema normale mi garantisce di cambiarne tre a giorno senza probbbbblemivedremo se uno ci si paga queste o no ...
