Obbligazioni societarie Obbligazioni Oil & Gas

[Imark]

Sul ruolo di YPF in seno a Repsol mi è parso interessante questo articolo del WSJ online.

<HEARD ON THE STREET

JULY 7, 2009

Argentina Still Weighs on Repsol

By MATTHEW CURTIN

Repsol is playing down speculation about unloading some of its 85% stake in Argentinian oil business YPF. But shareholders must hope a deal materializes, and soon. Apart from its exposure to Argentina's political and economic risks, YPF ties up capital that Repsol could use to develop large recent Brazilian oil discoveries.

Unfortunately, what makes it wise for Repsol to sell YPF may deter potential buyers. YPF's reserves are declining. Buenos Aires has to approve any share sale, while Repsol has committed to keep at least a 50.1% stake until 2012.

YPF also has to satisfy domestic oil demand -- where prices are capped -- before it can export, paying a punitive export tax. Chinese suitors, in particular, will likely bridle at such restrictions.

YPF provides two-thirds of Repsol's production and half of its reserves. Selling 20% of YPF, as hoped for in 2008, might raise as much as $3 billion, equivalent to a third of Repsol's annual capital expenditure. But Repsol needs more. The cost of developing its 25% stake in the BMS-9 block off Brazil might exceed €30 billion ($41.9 billion). As it is, Santander estimates Repsol will face a €2.2 billion cash outflow this year, exacerbated by a capital increase at 31%-held Spanish affiliate Gas Natural.

As oil prices have fallen, investors have warmed to Repsol's exposure to the regulated gas utility. And they like the Brazilian oil exposure.

But Argentina remains a drag. YPF was supposed to turn Repsol into a global oil major. A decade on, the deal's legacy instead emphasizes Repsol's subscale portfolio of disparate energy assets. Until that is properly addressed, its discount to European peers will remain firmly in place

 

[Imark]

Petrobras non risentirà nel proprio rating sui bond in valuta estera dell'eventuale upgrade del rating sovrano brasiliano, in quanto il rating IG attuale incorpora già un alto livello assunto di sostegno statale in caso di difficoltà contingenti di P. ed un medio livello di correlazione fra P ed il governo in caso di default del Brasile, ed in particolare una bassa probabilità che una eventuale moratoria sul debito pubblico implichi in automatico analoga circostanza per il debito corporate.

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's comments on impact of Brazil's ratings review on Petrobras[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]New York, July 07, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service commented that the review for possible upgrade of the government of Brazil's Ba1 foreign- and local-currency bond ratings and the Baa3 foreign currency bond ceiling will have no impact on Petrobras's A3 global local currency rating or on its Baa1 foreign currency bond rating, both of which have a stable outlook. For further information on the sovereign rating review, please see www.moodys.com. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Petrobras's A3 local currency rating reflects application of joint-default analysis under Moody's government-related issuers methodology, which considers a baseline credit assessment for Petrobras of 8 (comparable to Baa1) and factors in a high level of implied support by the government and a medium level of default correlation between Petrobras and the government. An upgrade of the government's rating does not affect Petrobras's A3 rating using current support and dependence assumptions, nor would it affect the company's Baa1 foreign currency bond rating.[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]While Brazil's foreign currency ceiling would be raised in tandem with an upgrade of the government's Ba1 foreign currency rating, Petrobras's Baa1 rating already pierces the country ceiling based on a low likelihood that the company would be subject to a general debt moratorium. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The last rating action affecting Petrobras occurred on June 18, 2009, when we affirmed its foreign currency bond rating and downgraded its global local currency rating to A3, reflecting an increased level of dependence between Petrobras and the government of Brazil. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The principal methodologies used in rating Petrobras are Moody's Global Integrate Oil rating methodology and The Application of Joint Default Analysis to Government-Related Issuers, both of which can be found at www.moodys.com in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory, in the Ratings Methodologies subdirectory. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered can also be found in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras), based in Rio de Janeiro, is an integrated petroleum company and the largest corporation in Brazil. The government owns 55.7% of Petrobras's common stock, and directly and indirectly owns about 43% of Petrobras's common and preferred shares outstanding[/FONT]

 

[Imark]

Come si articola il rapporto fra Gazprom e la Federazione Russa, e perchè il tipo di supporto atteso dallo Stato è ritenuto di tipo "molto forte" e tale da giustificare un uplift nel rating di Gazprom di 2 livelli, secondo S&P, che valuta il rating stand alone della società a livello BB+ ?

Le risposte in questo breve report, piuttosto circostanziato tuttavia, occasionato dall'assegnazione da parte dell'agenzia di uno short term rating a Gazprom e probabilmente motivato anche dalla revisione della politica di assegnazione dei rating alle GRE (government related entities).

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]OAO Gazprom Assigned 'A-3' Short-Term Rating; Two New Bonds Totaling RUR15 Bil. Rated 'BBB'

[/FONT] -- We continue to view the liquidity of the Russian gas giant OAO Gazprom as
adequate.
-- We are assigning a short-term corporate credit rating of 'A-3'.
-- We are also assigning 'BBB' senior unsecured debt ratings to the recently issued ruble-denominated bonds totaling RUR15 billion.
-- We are affirming the 'BBB' long-term rating. The outlook is negative.

MOSCOW (Standard & Poor's) July 10, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it assigned its 'A-3' short-term corporate credit rating to the Russian gas giant OAO Gazprom. The 'BBB' long-term rating was affirmed. The outlook is negative.

At the same time, we assigned our 'BBB' senior unsecured debt ratings to the Russian ruble (RUR) 5 billion Series A11 bond and RUR10 billion Series A13 bond issued by Gazprom.

"The 'A-3' short-term rating on Gazprom is based on our assessment of its liquidity position as adequate, given its proven access to financing from Russian state-owned financial institutions and bond markets," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Andrey Nikolaev.

The ratings on Gazprom reflect its stand-alone credit profile (SACP), which Standard & Poor's assesses at 'BB+', but it also incorporates two notches uplift for extraordinary state support.

In accordance with our criteria for government-related entities, we qualify Gazprom as having:

-- A "very important" role in the economy, given its mandate to maintain the country's gas transportation network and supply about 40% of the country's energy balance at low regulated prices. Gazprom is responsible for about 15% of the country's exports and 14% of federal tax revenues, and serves as the government's key tool in strengthening state control over the strategic hydrocarbon sector.

-- A "strong" link with the government, which is actively involved in defining the group's strategy and intends to maintain a controlling majority in its capital. We also take into account that the size of the group's financial liabilities is considerable compared with the size of Russia's economy.

The SACP of 'BB+' is based on Standard & Poor's classification of the group's business profile as "satisfactory", given its vast proven reserves, massive production, vertical integration, and a solid European market share. It is also based on our classification of its financial profile as "significant" owing to its high debt, and aggressive financial policy involving multiple acquisitions and late and complex financial disclosures (see sections on financial risk in "Corporate Ratings Criteria 2008," published April 15, 2008).

Our stand-alone assessment also factors in our perception of the benefits and disadvantages of Gazprom's ongoing relationship with the Russian Federation (foreign currency BBB/Negative/A-3, local currency BBB+/Negative/A-2). This includes Gazprom's privileged access to new business opportunities, strong bargaining power, our perception of a strong access to financing by state-controlled banks, a very conservative dividend policy, but at the same time still low (albeit increasing) domestic gas prices, and acquisition
ambitions.

The negative outlook reflects our view of significant pressures on Gazprom's stand-alone credit quality, notably in the event of higher-than-expected debt increases in 2009 and 2010. It also reflects the negative outlook on the Russian Federation. Deterioration of either the stand-alone or the sovereign credit quality could prompt a one-notch downgrade

"In a difficult gas market environment characterized by a steep drop in Gazprom's sales volumes in the first quarter and lower oil-indexed prices in the second half, we will monitor as closely as public disclosures allow the company's ability and willingness to adjust its considerable capital expenditure program, reduce its pace of acquisitions significantly, and manage its liquidity despite ongoing refinancing needs," said Mr. Nikolaev.

The government's incentive to load Gazprom with additional mandates to support other entities affected by the ongoing turmoil in the financial sector is also an increased risk factor, in our view

 

[samantaao]

1

tutto il comparto si è mosso bene, ma in particolare si distingue Gazprom grazie alle buone notizie dell'ultimo periodo
mercati di alcuni prezzi (grazie a Mark):
ICMA CHESAPEAKE 2017
ICMA ENI 2010
MOT ENI 2013
ICMA MOL 2015
BBML REPSOL 2017
ICMA REPSOL 2010
ICMA STATOIL 2011
ICMA TOTAL 2017
ICMA TOTAL 10/2010

 

[samantaao]

2

2

 

[samantaao]

3

3

 

[samantaao]

nota operativa eventualmente cancellabile:

queste cominciano ad essere cortine e talvolta il rendimento viene negativo costringendomi a ritoccare i prezzi di qualche decimo.
quando diventeranno poco significative avvertitemi che le tolgo dal monitor.

 

[Imark]

queste cominciano ad essere cortine e talvolta il rendimento viene negativo costringendomi a ritoccare i prezzi di qualche decimo.
quando diventeranno poco significative avvertitemi che le tolgo dal monitor.

Ciao Carlo, direi che sotto lo 0,75 di duration modificata si potrebbero anche togliere... a quel punto sono in sostanza uno strumento di liquidità... in alternativa, si potrebbero togliere a 9 mesi dalla scadenza...

 

[samantaao]

Ciao Carlo, direi che sotto lo 0,75 di duration modificata si potrebbero anche togliere... a quel punto sono in sostanza uno strumento di liquidità... in alternativa, si potrebbero togliere a 9 mesi dalla scadenza...

 

[Capirex85]

Complimenti, ottimo lavoro samantaaohttp://www.investireoggi.it/forum/member.php?u=12652