Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti Obbligazioni PAESI EMERGENTI
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
Camajan
Forumer storico
angy2008
Forumer storico
fabriziof
Forumer storico
grazie
.anche per l'impagabile immaginetta pubblicitaria sulla destra ,la donna che consulta shibui pasteggia a champagne e caviale,l'uomo che non lo fa è costretto a dormire su una panchina 
drbs315
Forumer storico
Camfin
Nuovo forumer
Obbligazionario paesi emergenti
16 Dec. 2011
Mauro Camisani Calzolari money manager di Camfin Emerging Market debt, risponde a chi gli ha posto la domanda sul prossimo futuro dei mercati emergenti. “Seppure in maniera minore, i mercati emergenti continueranno a performare nel 2012, facendo registrare in media una crescita del 5%”. In un anno caratterizzato da politiche economiche che hanno dato scarsi progressi di ripresa , in questi momenti, un’opzione al rifugio alla liquidità, potrebbe essere rappresentata dall’investimento in titoli obbligazionari high yield dei paesi emergenti. Su tutti i paesi emergenti che rientrano nel portafoglio, mi sento di consigliare fortemente il Messico, il Brasile, il Sud Africa, la Cina e il Venezuela e la Russia.
Considerati ormai da tutti il nuovo motore della crescita economica mondiale, gli emerging market offrono oggi opportunità d’investimento relativamente solide, grazie alle recenti riforme economiche ed alla costante crescita della classe media. Anche se, gli effetti della crisi del debito continueranno ad avere un ritorno negativo sulle economie emergenti, essendo molto legate alle economie dell'Europa e Stati Uniti, il miglioramento della qualità creditizia e le prospettive di crescita si sono ampliate e garantiranno un ritorno interessante.
In questo periodo di crisi economica che sta attraversando l'Europa (l'euro) e l'America, trovo attraente diversivicare nei mercati emergenti sopra citati, in particolare i titoli in valuta messicana. La divisa da preferire il prossimo anno sarà di sicuro il pesos messicano. Visti i recenti interventi politici, i rapporti commerciali con gli Usa e le robuste previsioni di crescita, è prevedibile che la valuta messicana possa apprezzarsi in maniera interessante da qui a qualche anno, migliorando ulteriormente le performance dell’investimento esposto in tale economia.
16 Dec. 2011
Mauro Camisani Calzolari money manager di Camfin Emerging Market debt, risponde a chi gli ha posto la domanda sul prossimo futuro dei mercati emergenti. “Seppure in maniera minore, i mercati emergenti continueranno a performare nel 2012, facendo registrare in media una crescita del 5%”. In un anno caratterizzato da politiche economiche che hanno dato scarsi progressi di ripresa , in questi momenti, un’opzione al rifugio alla liquidità, potrebbe essere rappresentata dall’investimento in titoli obbligazionari high yield dei paesi emergenti. Su tutti i paesi emergenti che rientrano nel portafoglio, mi sento di consigliare fortemente il Messico, il Brasile, il Sud Africa, la Cina e il Venezuela e la Russia.
Considerati ormai da tutti il nuovo motore della crescita economica mondiale, gli emerging market offrono oggi opportunità d’investimento relativamente solide, grazie alle recenti riforme economiche ed alla costante crescita della classe media. Anche se, gli effetti della crisi del debito continueranno ad avere un ritorno negativo sulle economie emergenti, essendo molto legate alle economie dell'Europa e Stati Uniti, il miglioramento della qualità creditizia e le prospettive di crescita si sono ampliate e garantiranno un ritorno interessante.
In questo periodo di crisi economica che sta attraversando l'Europa (l'euro) e l'America, trovo attraente diversivicare nei mercati emergenti sopra citati, in particolare i titoli in valuta messicana. La divisa da preferire il prossimo anno sarà di sicuro il pesos messicano. Visti i recenti interventi politici, i rapporti commerciali con gli Usa e le robuste previsioni di crescita, è prevedibile che la valuta messicana possa apprezzarsi in maniera interessante da qui a qualche anno, migliorando ulteriormente le performance dell’investimento esposto in tale economia.
boscolo117
Forumer attivo
Fra i paesi consigliati tutto mi aspettavo ma non il Venezuela e soprattutto nel 2012 anno di elezioni.
Camfin
Nuovo forumer
Appunto per questo consiglio il Venezuela... Si terranno il 07 ottobre 2012, le elezioni presidenziali in Venezuela. Lo ha annunciato il Consiglio nazionale elettorale (Cne). Come vedi abbiamo quasi tutto il 2012 per investire in titoli Venezuelani, poi non è detto, che se di nuovo rieletto Hugo Chavez, non mantenga il suo impegno ad onorare il debito del Venezuela. La Evrofinance Mosnarbank, guardando alle attività recenti dell’istituto di credito si scopre che, nel 2011, non sono state fatte altre operazioni in bond se non quelle con il Venezuela. Mentre, nell'anno precedente, non era stata trattata nemmeno un’obbligazione del Paese sudamericano.
Questo perchè; dallo scorso febbraio, l’azionista di riferimento della banca russa è proprio il governo di Chavez. Il ministero delle Finanze di Caracas, attraverso il fondo sovrano Fonden, ha acquistato infatti il 49,9% della Evrofinance Mosnarbank, assicurandosi un posto d'onore a Mosca (ma anche a Pechino, dove c'è la terza sede della banca) e un portafoglio sicuro dove posizionare eventuali titoli che non dovessero essere sottoscritti dal mercato, avendo se rieletto intenzionato a emettere sul mercato dei capitali altro debito per finanziare le opere sociali...
Da un indagine, di Capital Economics, società di ricerca a Londra il punto nevralgico prossimo potrebbe essere il Venezuela. According to Capital Economics, a research firm in London the next trouble spot could be Venezuela. "C'è un rischio crescente che il governo dichiara default, Il credit default swap del paese implica un 50% di probabilità di default entro il 2015. Some in the markets have taken fright, too: the country's credit-default swaps imply a 50% chance of default by 2015.
Secondo la mia opinione, se l'economica dell'area america latina conferma la sua crescere in media del 5% nel 2012 e si mantiene costante negli anni successivi, questo Credit default swap potrebbe non accadere comunque bisogna stare allerta e uscire hai primi segnali economici persistenti negativi. Hugo Chávez, presidente del Venezuela, con la sua politica sociale provoca i mercati obbligazionari creando dubbi per la solvibilità delle ottavo produttore di petrolio più grande del mondo.
Camfin
Nuovo forumer
Camfin: BTA BANK Ristruttura il debito.
BTA to propose restructuring at Jan. 26 shareholder meeting
* Wealth fund, central bank support move
* Restructuring will exclude depositors, trade finance creditors
* Analysts forecast haircut of 50-80 pct, depending on state support (Adds analyst, central bank comment, details)
By Robin Paxton and Carolyn Cohn
ALMATY/LONDON, Dec 22 - BTA, Kazakhstan's third-largest bank by assets, will propose a further debt restructuring at a shareholder meeting next month, a move seen requiring creditors to write off at least half their investment.
BTA said on Thursday shareholders would meet on Jan. 26 to decide whether to accept a proposal to restructure its debt to help the bank, majority owned by sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna, stay afloat.
"Restructuring is an urgently needed measure which, if timely ... should ensure further normal functioning of the bank, strengthen its financial position and potentially restore its position in the market," BTA said.
BTA was the largest of Kazakhstan's banks to default in 2009 when the global financial crisis hit Central Asia's largest economy, laying bare the banking sector's exposure to bloated real estate markets and an excessive reliance on external funding.
The bank managed to cut net debt by about two thirds to $4.2 billion through a restructuring programme agreed with creditors last year, which installed Samruk-Kazyna as its 81.5-percent shareholder.
BTA has relied largely on Samruk-Kazyna's support after struggling with persistent bad loans, slow growth in the non-commodity sectors of Kazakhstan's $150 billion economy and the cost of servicing its government funding package.
Samruk-Kazyna's deputy chief executive, Aidan Karibjanov, said the fund had analysed the financial situation at BTA and supported the bank's proposal to initiate restructuring of some of its debt.
In a statement published on Samruk-Kazyna's website, ?????????????-????????????? ?????? ?? «??????-??????», Karibjanov said the debt restructuring would exclude depositors and trade finance creditors.
"Samruk-Kazyna hopes that a second restructuring of certain of the bank's financial indebtedness ... will bring about the required level of capitalisation of the bank," he said.
A separate source at Samruk-Kazyna, who declined to be identified, said details of the second debt restructuring would be a subject for negotiation between creditors and the bank.
"An agreement will be reached only when the general meeting approves this process. Then, the negotiations with creditors will begin," said the source, adding that the process could take around six months to complete.
HAIRCUT
Kathleen Middlemiss, who covers BTA's bonds for UBS in London, said a "back of the envelope" calculation suggested the bank might want creditors to accept a 50 percent haircut.
The base for her calculation was the amount of capital that Samruk-Kazyna would inject to "make whole" its negative equity. Without the provision of capital by the wealth fund, she said a second restructuring was unlikely to be successful.
"Should Samruk-Kazyna not be so generous, the haircut could be as much as 75 percent for shareholders," Middlemiss said.
BTA's bond due 2018 rose 0.88 cents but was still trading at very low levels of 26.88 cents on the dollar, yielding 58.561 percent -- levels comparable with Greek debt.
"Consensus estimates about the next write-off vary widely, and range from 50 percent to 80 percent," said Richard Segal, analyst at Jefferies in London.
"A lot will depend on how much of the government's and the central bank's loans are converted to equity or quasi-equity. The more the government's debt is forgiven or converted to equity, the less the bondholders will have to suffer," he said.
Kazakhstan's central bank said in a statement that it supported the initiative by BTA to restructure part of its debt, calling it a "sensible reaction".
BTA posted a net loss of 203.8 billion tenge ($1.4 billion) in the first nine months of this year. This included a net loss of 64.7 billion tenge in September alone, driven by higher bad loan provisions.
BTA said in the statement the proposed restructuring would relate to liabilities to creditors under outstanding obligations entered into during the restructuring completed in 2010.
"I have never been involved in a second round of restructuring in my career," said a London-based corporate debt strategist. "This is going to be the first and we'll have to see what happens."
COUPON DUE
He said the market was focusing more on whether BTA would make a coupon payment due in early January and that while the proposed debt restructuring "ought to be good news for the coupon payments, it's by no means certain".
BTA said its next coupon payment of around $150 million was due by Jan. 3. The bank declined to comment on its ability to make this payment.
Investors have been concerned before about BTA's ability to meet coupon payments, but the bank met a $166.4 million payment in July and repaid a $175 million instalment of a trade finance loan in September.
A parliamentary election in Kazakhstan, scheduled 11 days before the BTA shareholders' meeting, will also have a bearing on the fate of the bank.
"The decision on the fate of BTA bank will be taken not by the existing government but by the new government that will be formed after the parliamentary elections," said Almaty-based political analyst Dosym Satpayev.
Authorities in Kazakhstan have amended legislation to pave the way for a multi-party parliament. Ruling party Nur Otan holds all 98 elected seats in the lower chamber and is widely expected to win an overwhelming majority in the next election. (Additional reporting by Mariya Gordeyeva and Olga Orininskaya in Almaty; Editing by Greg Mahlich)
BTA to propose restructuring at Jan. 26 shareholder meeting
* Wealth fund, central bank support move
* Restructuring will exclude depositors, trade finance creditors
* Analysts forecast haircut of 50-80 pct, depending on state support (Adds analyst, central bank comment, details)
By Robin Paxton and Carolyn Cohn
ALMATY/LONDON, Dec 22 - BTA, Kazakhstan's third-largest bank by assets, will propose a further debt restructuring at a shareholder meeting next month, a move seen requiring creditors to write off at least half their investment.
BTA said on Thursday shareholders would meet on Jan. 26 to decide whether to accept a proposal to restructure its debt to help the bank, majority owned by sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna, stay afloat.
"Restructuring is an urgently needed measure which, if timely ... should ensure further normal functioning of the bank, strengthen its financial position and potentially restore its position in the market," BTA said.
BTA was the largest of Kazakhstan's banks to default in 2009 when the global financial crisis hit Central Asia's largest economy, laying bare the banking sector's exposure to bloated real estate markets and an excessive reliance on external funding.
The bank managed to cut net debt by about two thirds to $4.2 billion through a restructuring programme agreed with creditors last year, which installed Samruk-Kazyna as its 81.5-percent shareholder.
BTA has relied largely on Samruk-Kazyna's support after struggling with persistent bad loans, slow growth in the non-commodity sectors of Kazakhstan's $150 billion economy and the cost of servicing its government funding package.
Samruk-Kazyna's deputy chief executive, Aidan Karibjanov, said the fund had analysed the financial situation at BTA and supported the bank's proposal to initiate restructuring of some of its debt.
In a statement published on Samruk-Kazyna's website, ?????????????-????????????? ?????? ?? «??????-??????», Karibjanov said the debt restructuring would exclude depositors and trade finance creditors.
"Samruk-Kazyna hopes that a second restructuring of certain of the bank's financial indebtedness ... will bring about the required level of capitalisation of the bank," he said.
A separate source at Samruk-Kazyna, who declined to be identified, said details of the second debt restructuring would be a subject for negotiation between creditors and the bank.
"An agreement will be reached only when the general meeting approves this process. Then, the negotiations with creditors will begin," said the source, adding that the process could take around six months to complete.
HAIRCUT
Kathleen Middlemiss, who covers BTA's bonds for UBS in London, said a "back of the envelope" calculation suggested the bank might want creditors to accept a 50 percent haircut.
The base for her calculation was the amount of capital that Samruk-Kazyna would inject to "make whole" its negative equity. Without the provision of capital by the wealth fund, she said a second restructuring was unlikely to be successful.
"Should Samruk-Kazyna not be so generous, the haircut could be as much as 75 percent for shareholders," Middlemiss said.
BTA's bond due 2018 rose 0.88 cents but was still trading at very low levels of 26.88 cents on the dollar, yielding 58.561 percent -- levels comparable with Greek debt.
"Consensus estimates about the next write-off vary widely, and range from 50 percent to 80 percent," said Richard Segal, analyst at Jefferies in London.
"A lot will depend on how much of the government's and the central bank's loans are converted to equity or quasi-equity. The more the government's debt is forgiven or converted to equity, the less the bondholders will have to suffer," he said.
Kazakhstan's central bank said in a statement that it supported the initiative by BTA to restructure part of its debt, calling it a "sensible reaction".
BTA posted a net loss of 203.8 billion tenge ($1.4 billion) in the first nine months of this year. This included a net loss of 64.7 billion tenge in September alone, driven by higher bad loan provisions.
BTA said in the statement the proposed restructuring would relate to liabilities to creditors under outstanding obligations entered into during the restructuring completed in 2010.
"I have never been involved in a second round of restructuring in my career," said a London-based corporate debt strategist. "This is going to be the first and we'll have to see what happens."
COUPON DUE
He said the market was focusing more on whether BTA would make a coupon payment due in early January and that while the proposed debt restructuring "ought to be good news for the coupon payments, it's by no means certain".
BTA said its next coupon payment of around $150 million was due by Jan. 3. The bank declined to comment on its ability to make this payment.
Investors have been concerned before about BTA's ability to meet coupon payments, but the bank met a $166.4 million payment in July and repaid a $175 million instalment of a trade finance loan in September.
A parliamentary election in Kazakhstan, scheduled 11 days before the BTA shareholders' meeting, will also have a bearing on the fate of the bank.
"The decision on the fate of BTA bank will be taken not by the existing government but by the new government that will be formed after the parliamentary elections," said Almaty-based political analyst Dosym Satpayev.
Authorities in Kazakhstan have amended legislation to pave the way for a multi-party parliament. Ruling party Nur Otan holds all 98 elected seats in the lower chamber and is widely expected to win an overwhelming majority in the next election. (Additional reporting by Mariya Gordeyeva and Olga Orininskaya in Almaty; Editing by Greg Mahlich)