Macroeconomia Usa-Europa Possibili opportunità di investimento azionario

alingtonsky

alingtonsky

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Nelle ultime settimane alcune azioni sono state affossate non da ragioni fondamentali, ma dal fatto che alcuni dei loro maggiori azionisti erano hedge funds che erano costretti a liquidare posizioni per far fronte a richieste di rimborso. Tale fenomeno potrebbe essere prossimo alla fine, vari hedge funds potrebbero avere già completato le vendite a loro necessarie per liberare liquidità.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) 5:44 p.m. EDT Oct. 16, 2008- Steel Dynamics Inc. has lost more than half its market value in the past month, despite quarterly results that showed the company in rude health.


Late Wednesday, the Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steel company (STLD) reported a 92% surge in third-quarter net income and revenue that more than doubled. The results fell short of analyst expectations, but that wasn't enough to explain the recent collapse in the company's shares, according to Chief Executive Keith Busse.

"It is simply beyond comprehension why our share price, which is supposed to reflect rational thinking by rational people, is where it is today," Busse said. "Those who have literally dumped their shares into a grossly oversold market have made some very poor investment decisions."
"A lot of that has to do with the hedge funds," he added during a conference call with analysts on Thursday. "They've driven this thing to almost a silly level where I think yesterday we were below our actual book value."
Steel Dynamics may be one of many companies that have seen their share price slump in the past month as the $2 trillion hedge fund industry suffers its worst losses in at least a decade. There are now early signs that such pressure may be easing

Steel makers and other commodities companies have been popular holdings for many hedge funds as they bet on a boom in demand from fast-developing countries like China and India.
But hedge fund investors have been asking for their money back in recent weeks. That's forced some managers to unwind positions to raise cash for redemptions at the end of this year.

Investors redeemed about $43 billion from hedge funds in September and more withdrawals are expected through the rest of 2008, TrimTabs Investment Research, which tracks flows of investor money, said on Thursday.
A Goldman Sachs index of 50 stocks that are most heavily owned by hedge funds slumped 19% in September, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index dropped 9%. Another Goldman index, which monitors stocks that don't have many hedge fund investors, fell just 2% last month.
"Forced selling to cover redemptions and delevering by hedge funds has put downward pressure on selected stocks," David Kostin and his colleagues at Goldman wrote in a note to clients earlier this month.
"We expect hedge fund selling/deleveraging to continue," they added, while telling investors to bet against stocks heavily held by hedge funds and to short, or bet against, stocks with the fewest hedge funds as shareholders.
......
Nearing an end?
However, there may be early signs that Goldman's suggested trade may be nearing an end. TrimTabs noted on Thursday that many hedge funds may have already raised enough cash to meet expected redemptions.

"They may not be the main source of forced selling anymore," Charles Biderman, founder of TrimTabs, said in an interview.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={D7CFD359-B72F-42B6-B3EA-0D3FDBEFDC67}
 
Secondo Warren Buffett è il momento di comprare azioni

17 OTT - Warren Buffett va ancora una volta controcorrente e nel bel mezzo della tormenta che continua ad abbattersi sui mercati azionari mondiali, Borsa di New York compresa, consiglia adesso di comprare titoli azionari della Corporate America. Il 'guru' della finanza statunitense ha espresso questa convinzione al New York Times e fa presente che é pronto ad investire le sue risorse personali (distinte dalla partecipazione che detiene in Berkshire Hathaway, il suo braccio finanziario) in azioni statunitensi, se i prezzi continueranno ad essere attraenti. Buffett ha enunciato il principio in base al quale "occorre avere paura quando tutti sono troppo ottimisti, mentre bisogna essere ottimisti quanto gli altri hanno paura". Secondo Buffett, è "folle" nutrire preoccupazioni esagerate circa le prospettive di molte società statunitensi; molte aziende probabilmente cominceranno a riportare utili-record negli anni a venire. Il 'guru' della finanza - che ha superato di recente Bill Gates nella classifica degli uomini più ricchi d' America - ha detto ancora che mentre non è possibile prevedere i movimenti della Borsa sul breve periodo, con ogni probabilità il mercato azionario in ogni caso si riprenderà prima ancora che lo facciano l' economia reale o la fiducia degli investitori. "Se si aspettano i pettirossi - ha sottolineato - il rischio é che la primavera sia già finita". Le cattive notizie - ha concluso - sono il miglior amico di uno che voglia investire, in quanto gli consentono di comprare "un pezzo del futuro dell' America ad un prezzo di sconto". (ANSA).
index.asp


http://www.wallstreetitalia.com/articolo.asp?art_id=630106&highlight=buffett


Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett said he's buying U.S. stocks and, if prices stay attractive, his personal investments, as distinct from his stake in Berkshire Hathaway Inc., will soon be wholly in American equities.
Writing in the New York Times, he said he's following the principle: be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
Exaggerated concern about the long-term prosperity of financially secure U.S. companies is foolish, and most will probably be setting profit records in years to come, Buffett said.
While short-term stock movements can't be foretold, the likelihood is that the market will recover before the economy or general investor sentiment do so, and ``if you wait for the robins, spring will be over,'' he said.
Referring to the 1930s Depression, Buffett pointed out that the Dow reached its nadir on July 8, 1932; economic conditions continued to deteriorate until Franklin Roosevelt became president in March 1933, and by that time the market had climbed 30 percent.
Bad news, Buffett concluded, is an investor's best friend, for it enables you to buy ``a slice of America's future at a marked-down price.''
Buffett, ranked the richest American by Forbes magazine, has committed at least $28 billion this year to acquire companies, finance buyouts and purchase securities for Berkshire as the contraction in global credit markets drove down stock prices and sent firms searching for funds.
Widely Imitated
Buffett built Nebraska-based Berkshire over four decades from a failing textile manufacturer into a $180 billion holding company by buying out-of-favor securities and businesses. Berkshire was the largest stockholder of Coca-Cola Co., Wells Fargo & Co., and Kraft Foods Inc. as of June 30, according to Bloomberg data.
Mutual funds and individuals mimic his stock picks in an effort to duplicate his success, and an academic study in 2007 found that using this strategy for 31 years would have delivered annualized returns of about 25 percent, double the gains of the S&P 500.
Berkshire advanced $3,650, or 3.2 percent, to $116,800 at 12:02 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The company has declined about 18 percent this year, beating the 35 percent drop of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=apDKZD4TIAKQ&refer=home

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/17/warren-buffett-shares-markets
 
Punto di svolta

Ci sono motivi per pensare che i mercati azionari abbiano raggiunto dei minimi importanti. Per chi ha saputo proteggersi dal bear market è arrivato il momento, come insegna Warren Buffett, di cominciare ad accumulare esposizione verso il rischio azionario.

18 October 2008, ore 13:06

......

Tipicamente, quando si arriva al punto in cui il crollo delle illusioni spiana la strada al panico, là dove si arresta la spasmodica ondata di vendite il bear market è, nella sostanza, finito.
L’altra settimana per tre giorni su cinque si sono registrati, a Wall Street, dei cosiddetti 9/10 days, e cioè sedute in cui oltre il 90% dei titoli ha chiuso al ribasso – un accadimento raro di per sé, che forse non si è mai ripetuto prima (escluso il collasso del 1929 e dintorni) addirittura per tre volte in una settimana e che tende a concentrarsi in prossimità dei punti di svolta del mercato.
I volumi sono stati elevati e venerdì 10 sono stati addirittura doppi rispetto alla media degli ultimi mesi. L’indice VIX della volatilità del mercato, chiamato anche “l’indice della paura” (perché l’alta volatilità si associa alle crisi di panico), ha toccato livelli record.
L’andamento dei mercati, insomma, è stato quello che in genere si riscontra al fondo di una crisi e di un bear market.
...

Per leggere l' intero articolo:

http://investitoreaccorto.investireoggi.it/punto-di-svolta.html
 
16 azioni per tempi difficili
(secondo JP Morgan , 20 ottobre 2008)
<OL type=1 _extended="true"><LI class=MsoNormal _extended="true">3M Co. (MMM) operates as a worldwide, diversified tech company. It operates in six segments: Industrial and Transportation; Health Care; Display and Graphics; Consumer and Office; Safety, Security, and Protection Services; and Electro and Communications. The company has a $40.2 billion Market cap, 22.50% Operating Margin, mid 14% Profit Margin, $25.60 billion revenue, $2 billion in total cash, $6.1 billion debt as of most recent quarter and a 1.51 Current Ratio.

<OL><LI class=MsoNormal _extended="true">Baxter International Inc (BAX) operates as a worldwide health care company. The company has a $38 billion Market cap, 21.15% Operating Margin, 15.70% Profit Margin, $11.90 billion in revenue, $2.2 billion in total cash, $3.3 billion debt as of most recent quarter and a 2.3 Current Ratio.
 
Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL) engages in the manufacture and marketing of consumer products worldwide. It operates in two segments, Oral, Personal, and Home Care; and Pet Nutrition. The company has a $32 billion Market cap, 20.65% Operating Margin, 12.10% Profit Margin, nearly $15 billion in revenue, $644 million in total cash, $3.8 billion debt as of most recent quarter and a 1.29 Current Ratio.

Hewlett-Packard Co (HPQ) provides various products, technologies, software, solutions, and services worldwide. The company has a $98 billion Market cap, 9.2% Operating Margin, mid 7% Profit Margin, over $113 billion in revenues, $14.9 billion in total cash, $10.3 billion debt as of most recent quarter and a 1.22 Current Ratio.

(20 ottobre 2008)

http://wallstreetpit.com/jp-morgan-16-stock-picks-for-troubled-times/
 
JPMorgan Picks 16 U.S. Stocks to Hold in a Recession

3M Co.Baxter International Inc. Colgate-Palmolive Co.CA Inc. Devon Energy Corp. General Mills Inc. Gilead Sciences Inc .Google Inc. Hewlett-Packard Co. McDonald's Corp. Merck & Co. Monsanto Co. Nucor Corp. Philip Morris International Inc. Union Pacific Corp. Visa Inc

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=amu.lZETzIPw&refer=stocks

http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUKTRE49G5G920081017?symbol=GIS.N

http://seekingalpha.com/article/100653-j-p-morgan-s-16-picks-in-troubled-times
 
Jubak's Journal10/24/2008 12:01 AM ET



Just because a share price is low doesn't mean it's a good deal. Current conditions make real bargains hard to identify, but with 3 tricks I found a trio of treats.

By Jim Jubak
Stock prices are low, sure enough. But are stocks cheap?
For most growth stocks, I think the answer is "not yet." But I've found three that are close. One of these I'd buy if it dropped back to its Oct. 15 low. One I'm putting on my Jubak's Picks watch list. And one I already own in that portfolio and will hold on to even in this tough environment.
Classic growth stocks such as Apple (AAPL), Coach (COH), Google (GOOG, news) and Whole Food Market (WFMI) certainly look cheap. As of Oct. 21, these four stocks were down 53%, 31%, 46% and 67%, respectively, for the year. You could say they're selling for about half off.
But with the economy headed into what looks like the deepest recession since it contracted by 3% in the fourth quarter of 1990 and 2% in the first quarter of 1991, I don't think these stocks are bargains.

For example, when I bought shares of Apple for Jubak's Picks on June 6, I called the stock a bargain at $185.81 a share because, with projected earnings growth for the fiscal year that ended in September at 33%, the stock's price-earnings ratio of 35 meant you were buying the company's growth on the cheap. It was cheaper on those projected earnings to buy Apple's growth, in fact, than the growth of blue chips such as PepsiCo (PEP) or Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). A slowing economy has knocked those projections into a cocked hat. On Oct. 21, Apple reported earnings per share of $1.26 for its fiscal fourth quarter. That beat the Wall Street consensus by 10 cents a share. But the company lowered its projection for earnings growth in the current quarter to $1.06 to $1.35 a share. That's way below the consensus projection of $1.65. If Apple's growth for fiscal 2009 falls by the 18% difference between the former projection of $1.65 a share and the recent $1.35 a share, the company won't show any earnings growth at all for fiscal 2009.


Suddenly, the stock isn't especially cheap, even at the Oct. 21 closing price of $91.49 a share or that day's after-hours price of $88. As they say, cheap -- Apple, Coach, Google and Whole Foods Market -- can always get cheaper.
It's not just that these four growth stocks aren't as cheap as they look. Most growth stocks in today's market, despite huge price retreats, aren't exactly bargains. Right now, with earnings growth at most companies set to fall off a cliff, finding a low-priced growth stock that's not about to get radically cheaper is like looking for a needle in a haystack when the haystack is on fire.

That's not to say you can't find a few true bargains among growth stocks. Just that it's hard to do. You can't rely on the usual ratios (for example, the price-earnings ratio to growth rate, or PEG) or expect screens based on last year's earnings or on Wall Street projections for next year's growth to find true bargains for you.

You've got to pull on your asbestos gloves, reach deep into the fire and look at things such as debt loads and cost structures -- things that most growth investors leave to the value-stock crowd -- to find bargains now. I've found three stocks that fit the bill by following these rules for finding bargain growth stocks in today's market.
Rule No. 1

Look for companies with flexible production and low fixed costs.

It certainly won't hurt, either, if variable costs are falling. These are the companies that have the best opportunity to keep earnings growing by cutting costs when demand or prices fall.
Let me start off with a very unlikely candidate for a cheap growth stock: steel maker Nucor (NUE, news, msgs). The common wisdom is that demand for steel drops in a recession as demand from car and appliance makers tanks. And that common wisdom is absolutely correct. Nucor, in its Oct. 16 conference call with investors and Wall Street analysts, reported it had shipped 13% less steel in the third quarter than in the second quarter of 2008. The outlook for the fourth quarter and for 2009 is so murky, the company said, that it won't venture even a guess at production levels or revenue for those periods.

....

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...l/cheap-stocks-theyre-an-illusion.aspx?page=1
 
Rule No. 2

Look for free cash flow that covers debt payments and is large enough to finance the company's growth.

In a normally functioning capital market, a company with solid earnings growth could simply tap the debt markets for enough money to roll over its debt or to finance its growth. I don't need to tell you that we don't have a normally functioning capital market.
So, for example, the solar industry, which is in the midst of a big expansion in capacity, is breaking down into the free-cash-flow haves and the free-cash-flow have-nots. The free-cash-flow haves, such as First Solar (FSLR, news, msgs), are producing enough cash from operations to fund expansion. According to Calyon Securities, First Solar will go from being slightly free-cash-flow negative in 2007 -- about 47 cents a share -- to very free-cash-flow positive -- about $7 a share -- in 2009.
On the other hand, Evergreen Solar (ESLR, news, msgs) was free-cash-flow negative in 2007 -- 67 cents a share -- and will remain free-cash-flow negative in 2009 -- $1.53 a share. That wouldn't be an issue -- except that Evergreen Solar estimates it needs $400 million by mid-2009 to complete its expansion plans, and right now the capital markets are just about closed to a young, cash-flow-negative company such as Evergreen Solar. Which is why Evergreen Solar shares had dropped 81% in 2008 as of Oct. 21 and may still not be a bargain.
Contrast that with First Solar. The company ended the second quarter of 2008 with $633 million in cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet. That, plus the company's growing positive free cash flow, should be more than enough to get the company to its goal of expanding annual production to 1,000 megawatts by 2009.
Calyon Securities calculates a 12-month target price of $216 a share for First Solar. That's based on a cut in the projected price-earnings multiple for the stock to 25 from 35 -- a big reduction -- but on 2010 earnings remaining at $10.48 a share. I don't think that's unreasonable, but given what we don't know about the economy in 2009, I think those projections are based on too many unknowns.
I'm going to hold off buying these shares until we're further into the recession of 2009. In the meantime, I'm going to add them to my Jubak's Picks watch list in the left column of this page.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...l/cheap-stocks-theyre-an-illusion.aspx?page=2
 
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