Dopo un inizio di giornata difficile, i mercati hanno recuperato brillantemente grazie ai buoni dati amercani (minori initial jobless claims, buoni housing starts e Philly Fed Index) ma, soprattutto, per il maggior ottimismo sul raggiungimento di un deal in Grecia. Il ministro delle finanze Olandese Jan Kees de Jager ha dichiarato che salvare la Grecia sarebbe meno costoso che farla uscire dall’Euro (meglio tardi che mai!), la Germania vuole evitare di dividere il piano di aiuti in due tranches (cosa che renderebbe i creditori privati più junior, senza certezza sul futuro supporto del settore pubblico alla Grecia, rendendo ancora più difficile da digerire i PSI), ma soprattutto l’ECB, secondo “euro-area officials”, scambierà i bond greci detenuti (EUR50bn) dall’ECB in nuovi bond, alla pari, ma senza collective-action clause, cioè esenti dai writedown. Questo evita perdite per la BCE, ma non migliora per nulla la sostenibilità del debito ellenico e quindi, a mio modesto parere, ci sarà di nuovo pressione sull’ECB perché sia fatto di più. Inoltre, c’è il rischio di azioni legali da parte di creditori privati.
Sicuramente questi ultimi dovranno riflettere su cosa questo implica per le loro holding, ma intanto le cose si muovono verso una soluzione, seppur sempre più cervellotica. personalmente, non vedo nessun guadagno per creditori e debitori, solo per l'ECB..
Per chiarire meglio, secondo Bloomberg:
“An exemption from collective action clauses, or CACs, would mean the ECB would not have to participate should the Greek government impose involuntary losses on bondholders in future.
That may occur if not enough private creditors agree to a voluntary swap.
CACs typically make all bondholders subject to losing part of their capital in a retrospective action that does not require the assent of all lenders. The people said the new Greek bonds the ECB will receive in exchange for its old ones are exempt from CACs.”
Die Welt, che ha riportato la storia per primo, fa notare che questo implicherebbe un profitto per la BCE, che potrebbe essere ridistribuito dalle singole banche centrali nazionali ai governi.
Inoltre, secondo l’FT, si sta lavorando per un escrow account che dovrà sempre contenere abbastanza cash per pagare il debito greci per 9-12 mesi. Se il cash scendesse sotto questo livello, “money designated for the running of the Greek government will be used to fund the debt”.
La Troika ritiene che diversi aspetti siano ancora da chiarire ma soprattutto, il commitment dei leader Greci pare essere insoddisfacente. Lunedi arriveranno più dettagli e, se si dovesse arrivare a una decisione sul “the Greek bailout package”, i PSI sarebbero implementati tra il 22/2 e il 9/3.
Oggi pare sia stato cancellato l'incontro tra Monti e Merkel.
EGB
- Peripheral markets were on a rollercoaster, very well offered in the morning into the Spanish auction, which itself wasn't really spectacular - amount issued was 4bn at or below secondary level, with only a comforting 2.9x b2c. The comments about Eurosystem ‘official-sector involvement’, possible official (bilateral) loan cost reduction and even progress on the PSI front were received positively later in the day.
- After the auction, on a more positive tone on the Greek deal, peripheral markets caught a strong bid, with both Italy and Spain being bought in good sizes by the respective domestics.
- In Italy the best performing area was the 10y with a domestic account buying large sizes of 2022 and 2023 maturities
- As the streak of pessimistic headlines in recent session had a limited impact on core yields and non-Greek periphery spreads, equally a more encouraging climate with regard to Greece should not affect other rates markets to the extent that would have been the case late last year.
- Spain already has raised € 42bn in short and long-term debt so far this year — about a third of what it had planned to auction for the full year
- None of the macroeconomic figures out today are likely to be market movers in fixed income and there is no supply due in EGBs.
SSA
Active session around French and Spain supply in EGB space yesterday. EFSF and EU spreads tightened 1-2bp as France recovered into the close, spreads are broadly unchanged. EIB holds very steady around ms+70 in 10y and flat to France - we have seen repeated supply across the curve in past three weeks (EIB 22 tapped 750m, new EIB 3/20 1bn, etc) and market seems very confident to hold these levels.
In short end we saw profit takers of EIB and KFW 2y as the market popped up. CB are involved in good two-way last sessions but bulk of flow biased to selling at tight asw valuations. Curve is clearly steepest in this sector and we still recommend rolling up to long 3y - strategic RM sells EIB 1/15 into 10/15 for 26bp on asw. Other flows: seller CADES 3y, seller EU 5y, seller KFW 10y into new RHIPHAL.
Covereds
Yesterday's risk-off/on again session served well as a lesson that Covereds are not bullet-proof, and I think the wobble had a lot of accounts and traders alike re-evaluating their holdings, which will hopefully lead to a more balanced picture going forward. Moodys rating action weighed on OBG, we saw net selling inquiry on the day. Main axes and ideas remain unchanged from yesterday.
