Analisi Intermarket ....quelli che.... Investire&tradare - Cap. 1
- Creatore Discussione Novenove
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
kuelo
C'e' grosssa crise...
--Nel mese di febbraio, Bmw ha registrato un aumento delle vendite globali del 14% su base annua a 127.634 veicoli in scia alla forte domanda nei mercati cinese e statunitense.
Le vendite del marchio Bmw sono cresciute lo scorso mese del 13% in termini tendenziali a 107.359 unita' mentre quelle del brand Mini hanno registrato un incremento del 25% a/a a 20.020 unita'.
Le vendite in Cina sono aumentate nel periodo del 39% a/a a 22.916 unita' mentre negli Stati Uniti sono salite del 32% a/a a 26.184 unita
...questo per la serie
le macchine , chi le sa fare , le vende...
ehhhhh testadiminkionne......supermanager di staminkia
Le vendite del marchio Bmw sono cresciute lo scorso mese del 13% in termini tendenziali a 107.359 unita' mentre quelle del brand Mini hanno registrato un incremento del 25% a/a a 20.020 unita'.
Le vendite in Cina sono aumentate nel periodo del 39% a/a a 22.916 unita' mentre negli Stati Uniti sono salite del 32% a/a a 26.184 unita
...questo per la serie
le macchine , chi le sa fare , le vende...
ehhhhh testadiminkionne
......supermanager di staminkiaNovenove
Moderator
Buongiorno cari piccoli suini al pascolo.
dal TRADING DESK:
Cos’è successo ai mercati ieri, cos’ha scatenato questo sell off? Niente di nuovo o inatteso, la recessione Europea nel Q411 era attesa, la crescita Cinese con un floor al 7.5% anche.. quindi molta tensione sui PSI e la chisura di qualche posizione dopo il massiccio rally della settimana scorsa. In Grecia, secondo “people with a direct knowledge of the matter” una partecipazione del 75-80% sarebbe “achievable”, non si arriverà probabilmente al di sopra del 90/95%.. questo significa che lo scambio si farà e saranno introdotti i CACs, quindi CDS trigger. Il pezzo dell’IIF di ieri, ampiamente commentato, evidenzia numeri molto negativi ed è un buon disincentivo a far saltare lo scambio. Allo scambio parteciperanno molti nomi Italiani, tra cui Generali (che detiene quasi 3bn di GGB), Intesa, Unicredit. Sale anche la pressione su coloro che non accetteranno lo scambio, gli holdouts: Evangelos Venizelos (Ministro delle Finanze) ha detto ieri che anche questi investitori saranno costretti ad accettare perdite. Intanto il future di Marzo sul Bund è salito 55 ticks ieri tocando 140.38 e il rendimento del 10Y tedesco era a 1.772% alla chiusura, Italia e Spagna tornano a rendere più del 5% sul 10Y (Italia 5.08%, +13 bps; Spagna 5.15%, +17 bps). L’Euro ha perso molto terreno nei confronti del dollaro anche se, prima di montare posizioni lunghe molti vorranno vedere l’esito nei NFP di venerdi.
Sul mercato dei govies:
++ Today’s supply includes a € 4 bn tap of the Feb-2017 OBL (bringing it
++ to € 12 bn). The most recent German auction before that was a 10Y tap
++ on
Feb 29 which, while perfectly acceptable, saw a return to much less ebullient bid-cover ratios and a longer tail, compared to the blow-out auctions in through most of January and February. In parallel, the OBL being issued today has lost all of its earlier new-issue (price) premium and now trades just above the interpolated yield of surrounding issues. The 5Y area (and beyond) should attract some of the near-term bank liquidity bid (directly or
indirectly) so we expect a reasonable auction
++ On the short end (up to 2Y) Italy and Spain were the worst performers with around 10bp of widening despite some buying flows from domestic customers.
++ The Greek T-bill auction was a non event. They managed to sell more
++ than 1bn at 4.8% in the 6 month area. The EFSF auction was strongly
++ overbid. It traded around 0.14 before the auction and was issued at
++ 0.056%. After the auction it traded again for more than 1bn at 0.135%
++ For longer maturities. shaky overall market sentiment on equities and bullish core markets trigger a selloff on the periphery with different behaviours in curve movement & shapes between BTP and Bonos.
++ As usual recently, 5y BTP bears the brunt of the move, despite its attractiveness on the curve, by widening 16bp, on some selling flows from domestic and international RM and only one Asian account buying in the morning session.
++ In Spain the same ALM keeps adding onto flatteners, the curve steepens driven by the weak 10y sector, we had some good two way flows with buying interest in 2014/2015 from domestics. I think flatteners are without a doubt very attractive on the Bono curve, however I don’t see much scope for a sustained move until the domestic support for the 3y starts fading.
++ on the very long end (30Y), the BTPs lost only 12bp but the long end
++ flows of the day were net buyers. France lost 4bp, a part of the
++ cheapening being due to the Dutch 20y issuance. The 4.15bn of Guilder
++ January 2033 have had a massive impact on the European market today.
++ It steepened the German curve by 2.5bp, cheapened the German
++ reference bond by up to 1.5bp at the time of the pricing, cheapened
++ the Dutch 30y bonds by 3bp vs Germany. This proves the increasing
++ difficulties to issue long core 30y bonds at the current market
++ levels, A part of the new Dutch 20y was bought vs France 2035 and led
++ to a 10bp cheapening of 30y OATs vs
Germany. Our preference remains the Belgian 30y bonds still offering above 4% returns.
dal TRADING DESK:
Cos’è successo ai mercati ieri, cos’ha scatenato questo sell off? Niente di nuovo o inatteso, la recessione Europea nel Q411 era attesa, la crescita Cinese con un floor al 7.5% anche.. quindi molta tensione sui PSI e la chisura di qualche posizione dopo il massiccio rally della settimana scorsa. In Grecia, secondo “people with a direct knowledge of the matter” una partecipazione del 75-80% sarebbe “achievable”, non si arriverà probabilmente al di sopra del 90/95%.. questo significa che lo scambio si farà e saranno introdotti i CACs, quindi CDS trigger. Il pezzo dell’IIF di ieri, ampiamente commentato, evidenzia numeri molto negativi ed è un buon disincentivo a far saltare lo scambio. Allo scambio parteciperanno molti nomi Italiani, tra cui Generali (che detiene quasi 3bn di GGB), Intesa, Unicredit. Sale anche la pressione su coloro che non accetteranno lo scambio, gli holdouts: Evangelos Venizelos (Ministro delle Finanze) ha detto ieri che anche questi investitori saranno costretti ad accettare perdite. Intanto il future di Marzo sul Bund è salito 55 ticks ieri tocando 140.38 e il rendimento del 10Y tedesco era a 1.772% alla chiusura, Italia e Spagna tornano a rendere più del 5% sul 10Y (Italia 5.08%, +13 bps; Spagna 5.15%, +17 bps). L’Euro ha perso molto terreno nei confronti del dollaro anche se, prima di montare posizioni lunghe molti vorranno vedere l’esito nei NFP di venerdi.
Sul mercato dei govies:
++ Today’s supply includes a € 4 bn tap of the Feb-2017 OBL (bringing it
++ to € 12 bn). The most recent German auction before that was a 10Y tap
++ on
Feb 29 which, while perfectly acceptable, saw a return to much less ebullient bid-cover ratios and a longer tail, compared to the blow-out auctions in through most of January and February. In parallel, the OBL being issued today has lost all of its earlier new-issue (price) premium and now trades just above the interpolated yield of surrounding issues. The 5Y area (and beyond) should attract some of the near-term bank liquidity bid (directly or
indirectly) so we expect a reasonable auction
++ On the short end (up to 2Y) Italy and Spain were the worst performers with around 10bp of widening despite some buying flows from domestic customers.
++ The Greek T-bill auction was a non event. They managed to sell more
++ than 1bn at 4.8% in the 6 month area. The EFSF auction was strongly
++ overbid. It traded around 0.14 before the auction and was issued at
++ 0.056%. After the auction it traded again for more than 1bn at 0.135%
++ For longer maturities. shaky overall market sentiment on equities and bullish core markets trigger a selloff on the periphery with different behaviours in curve movement & shapes between BTP and Bonos.
++ As usual recently, 5y BTP bears the brunt of the move, despite its attractiveness on the curve, by widening 16bp, on some selling flows from domestic and international RM and only one Asian account buying in the morning session.
++ In Spain the same ALM keeps adding onto flatteners, the curve steepens driven by the weak 10y sector, we had some good two way flows with buying interest in 2014/2015 from domestics. I think flatteners are without a doubt very attractive on the Bono curve, however I don’t see much scope for a sustained move until the domestic support for the 3y starts fading.
++ on the very long end (30Y), the BTPs lost only 12bp but the long end
++ flows of the day were net buyers. France lost 4bp, a part of the
++ cheapening being due to the Dutch 20y issuance. The 4.15bn of Guilder
++ January 2033 have had a massive impact on the European market today.
++ It steepened the German curve by 2.5bp, cheapened the German
++ reference bond by up to 1.5bp at the time of the pricing, cheapened
++ the Dutch 30y bonds by 3bp vs Germany. This proves the increasing
++ difficulties to issue long core 30y bonds at the current market
++ levels, A part of the new Dutch 20y was bought vs France 2035 and led
++ to a 10bp cheapening of 30y OATs vs
Germany. Our preference remains the Belgian 30y bonds still offering above 4% returns.
eddie34
Vendo le Canistracci Oil!
eddie ....un 'altra cosa che non ti ho mai detto...ma forse sapevi gia'....ogni tanto...per i "nostri metodi " e' utile guardare un grafo in modo "lineare " ...invece che a Candle
normalmente la ritraccio sulle candles
kuelo
C'e' grosssa crise...
normalmente la ritraccio sulle candles
azz...vero...avevo pure visto...m'ero scordato
kuelo
C'e' grosssa crise...
Novenove
Moderator
- Stato
