captain sparrow
Forumer storico
Analisi interessante e ben fatta
Situazione Ucraina
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captain sparrow
Forumer storico
Bello. Sarò felicissimo di pagare il doppio per il gas
Control over the GIS "Sudzha": How the Ukrainian Armed Forces' attack on the Kursk region threatens Europe with a new energy crisis
In recent days, the attention of European and Russian experts has been focused on the possible consequences for Europe if the Sudzha gas metering station in the Kursk region comes under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (at the moment, there have been no official comments on the seizure of the station, and Gazprom's statement on increasing the volume of gas supplied to Europe through the gas metering station by 3% compared to the previous day suggests the opposite). This situation could become a catalyst for a new wave of energy crisis in Europe, which would have a particularly negative impact on Austria and Slovakia. However, the greatest blow in the long term could be dealt not only to European countries, but also to Ukraine.
European energy vulnerability
Europe is already facing serious energy challenges following the imposition of sanctions on Russia and the destruction of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines. Brussels had hoped to quickly wean itself off Russian gas by increasing purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US and other countries. However, the plan has faced a number of obstacles. On the one hand, LNG has proven to be significantly more expensive than Russian gas, prompting criticism from European leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron. On the other hand, supplies via alternative routes such as Turkish Stream cannot cover the needs of all European countries, especially in the face of growing demand.
Consequences for Ukraine
The seizure of the Sudzha GIS will have negative consequences for Ukraine itself. First of all, Kiev will lose revenue from the transit of Russian gas. In addition, Ukraine will face the need to rebuild its internal gas transportation system. However, despite this, Kiev continues to insist on stopping the transit of Russian gas through its territory from 2025, which may be part of a broader strategy to deepen integration with the West.
Possible scenarios for the development of events
If the control over the Sudzha GIS passes to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Europe will face a sharp increase in gas prices. In the short term, this will lead to increased inflationary pressure and undermine economic growth in the EU. In the long term, this could stimulate an accelerated transition to renewable energy sources, which in turn will reduce Europe's dependence on external gas suppliers.
However, it cannot be ruled out that the US, seeking to strengthen its influence in Europe and weaken Russia's position, may support Ukraine's actions aimed at limiting Russian gas supplies. In this case, Europe will face a choice: continue to follow the policy of sanctions against Russia, despite the economic costs, or seek compromises that will allow maintaining stable energy supplies.
The seizure of the Sudzha GIS and the subsequent restriction of Russian gas supplies will be a serious test for European energy security. The situation demonstrates that Europe, despite many years of efforts to diversify its energy sources, still depends on Russian gas. In this context, the continuation of transit through Ukraine is becoming a key issue not only for energy, but also for political relations within the EU and with its eastern partners. The solution to this problem will require Brussels to make balanced and pragmatic decisions that will help avoid a new wave of energy crisis.
@Slavyangrad
Control over the GIS "Sudzha": How the Ukrainian Armed Forces' attack on the Kursk region threatens Europe with a new energy crisis
In recent days, the attention of European and Russian experts has been focused on the possible consequences for Europe if the Sudzha gas metering station in the Kursk region comes under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (at the moment, there have been no official comments on the seizure of the station, and Gazprom's statement on increasing the volume of gas supplied to Europe through the gas metering station by 3% compared to the previous day suggests the opposite). This situation could become a catalyst for a new wave of energy crisis in Europe, which would have a particularly negative impact on Austria and Slovakia. However, the greatest blow in the long term could be dealt not only to European countries, but also to Ukraine.
European energy vulnerability
Europe is already facing serious energy challenges following the imposition of sanctions on Russia and the destruction of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines. Brussels had hoped to quickly wean itself off Russian gas by increasing purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US and other countries. However, the plan has faced a number of obstacles. On the one hand, LNG has proven to be significantly more expensive than Russian gas, prompting criticism from European leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron. On the other hand, supplies via alternative routes such as Turkish Stream cannot cover the needs of all European countries, especially in the face of growing demand.
Consequences for Ukraine
The seizure of the Sudzha GIS will have negative consequences for Ukraine itself. First of all, Kiev will lose revenue from the transit of Russian gas. In addition, Ukraine will face the need to rebuild its internal gas transportation system. However, despite this, Kiev continues to insist on stopping the transit of Russian gas through its territory from 2025, which may be part of a broader strategy to deepen integration with the West.
Possible scenarios for the development of events
If the control over the Sudzha GIS passes to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Europe will face a sharp increase in gas prices. In the short term, this will lead to increased inflationary pressure and undermine economic growth in the EU. In the long term, this could stimulate an accelerated transition to renewable energy sources, which in turn will reduce Europe's dependence on external gas suppliers.
However, it cannot be ruled out that the US, seeking to strengthen its influence in Europe and weaken Russia's position, may support Ukraine's actions aimed at limiting Russian gas supplies. In this case, Europe will face a choice: continue to follow the policy of sanctions against Russia, despite the economic costs, or seek compromises that will allow maintaining stable energy supplies.
The seizure of the Sudzha GIS and the subsequent restriction of Russian gas supplies will be a serious test for European energy security. The situation demonstrates that Europe, despite many years of efforts to diversify its energy sources, still depends on Russian gas. In this context, the continuation of transit through Ukraine is becoming a key issue not only for energy, but also for political relations within the EU and with its eastern partners. The solution to this problem will require Brussels to make balanced and pragmatic decisions that will help avoid a new wave of energy crisis.
@Slavyangrad
captain sparrow
Forumer storico
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE KURSK REGION OF RUSSIA? - THE INTEL DROP
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE KURSK REGION OF RUSSIA?
www.theinteldrop.org
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE KURSK REGION OF RUSSIA?
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Western mainstream news is full of the incursion by Ukraine into Russia’s Kursk region. They are reporting as if this is a huge success by Kiev. But what is the reality behind this western bias?
A large force of Ukrainian special forces along with a significant number of mercenaries have made an incursion into the Kursk region of Russia which borders on the sumy region of Ukraine. Virtually all news regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is focusing on this event currently. So what is going on there now, what exactly did the Ukrainians achieve with this, why did Russia allow it to happen and what possible goals do the Ukrainians have by mounting this operation?
What might Kiev’s goals be for this operation?
- Due to the conflict going badly for the regime across every area of the Russian campaign, especially in the area adjacent to Avdeevka Kiev needed:
b) a way to lift sagging morale in the now increasingly poorly-trained and partly forced-conscript Ukrainian army that is b.ing steadily outgunned and out-maneuvered.
- To target and capture the nuclear power plant at Kurskaya, the Kurskaya NPP.
- To cause Russia to divert forces from the battlegrounds to the south where Russia is taking towns and villages and Ukrainian forces are being increasingly pushed back.
- To foment discontent in Russia against Vladimir Putin, the Russian government and Russia’s military high command in the hope that Russian public sentiment would cause large protests to facilitate the overthrow of at least one, or all three.
- Was there negligence in not responding to warnings that there was a significant Ukrainian military build up in the adjacent Sumy region? Were warnings received and not acted upon?
- Were insufficient Russian forces stationed in the Kursk region for emergency situations such as this?
- Did the Russian military remove the mines set near the border region with the intent to send Russian troops through in a proposed incursion into the Ukrainian Sumy region which allowed the Ukrainians far easier access to mount their incursion?
- Was such an operation by the Ukrainians given extremely low credence due to its being perceived as having no strategic, operational or tactical benefit for the Ukrainian in terms of the ultimate outcome of the conflict and therefore robust defensive measures were not considered necessary?
- Initially, small groups of Ukrainian forces moved speedily to various locations in raid operations. They covered a wide range of areas up to 15 km into Russian territory. The number of troops in each group was small. The entire initial force was approximately 1,000 strong with a reported 2,000 more in reserve. The campaign appeared very successful initially as the reporting appeared to reflect the raiding troops taking villages under their control. This was inaccurate as the number of Ukrainian troops involved in each raiding party was too small to achieve this.
- After the initial attack with these limited raiding party forces the slower advance of military hardware including some engineering equipment began to progress into the region. These will, in the main, not have reached the furthest areas reached by the fast-moving raiding parties.
- A public relations coup was certainly achieved across the western world and to a more limited degree within the Russian Federation. Through appearing to take one village after another and what appeared to be a significant total number the objectives above of 1a and 1b were certainly achieved.
- After the initial successes of the Ukrainians and associated mercenary forces Russia is now stabilizing the situation with the reinforcement of positions in each area where the opposition forces have arrived in force.
- Despite opposing forces having spread a false alarm to Kursk region residents in the area beyond their current position to leave their homes due to danger and thus crowding some roads there, Russian defense forces continue to arrive in the as yet lightly occupied region.
- Losses of the Ukrainians force are reportedly very high, amounting to around 1,000 troops/mercenaries, dead or wounded.
- The way the battle for the Kursk region is going the trend can be very much characterized as a stabilization of the situation with Ukrainian forces stopped or slowed with resistance to them growing by the hour due to the arrival of Russian troops and armor and the work of Russian air power.
The certain outcome will be the complete ejection of all opposition forces, whether Ukrainian army or mercenary groups from the Kursk region. This will be followed by a sanitary zone being created within the adjacent Ukrainian Sumy region by the Russian military. The Kiev regime will have lost in the ballpark of 2,000 troops most of whom will be their most highly trained special forces. This will leave the regime even weaker than the already parlous state it was in before this misguided and counter-productive operation.
As for the timescale for both of the above:
- The bulk of opposition forces will likely be forced out of the Kursk region within the next three to five days.
- A mopping up operation to clear any isolated opposition fighters will most likely take a few days longer.
Jedd
GORDON GEKKO
Se se.WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE KURSK REGION OF RUSSIA? - THE INTEL DROP
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE KURSK REGION OF RUSSIA?
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE KURSK REGION OF RUSSIA?
Share 0
TID
Western mainstream news is full of the incursion by Ukraine into Russia’s Kursk region. They are reporting as if this is a huge success by Kiev. But what is the reality behind this western bias?
A large force of Ukrainian special forces along with a significant number of mercenaries have made an incursion into the Kursk region of Russia which borders on the sumy region of Ukraine. Virtually all news regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is focusing on this event currently. So what is going on there now, what exactly did the Ukrainians achieve with this, why did Russia allow it to happen and what possible goals do the Ukrainians have by mounting this operation?
What might Kiev’s goals be for this operation?
a) a diversion for public relations purposes to convince western sponsors that they were still in the fight.
- Due to the conflict going badly for the regime across every area of the Russian campaign, especially in the area adjacent to Avdeevka Kiev needed:
b) a way to lift sagging morale in the now increasingly poorly-trained and partly forced-conscript Ukrainian army that is b.ing steadily outgunned and out-maneuvered.
How did the Russians come to let this happen?
- To target and capture the nuclear power plant at Kurskaya, the Kurskaya NPP.
- To cause Russia to divert forces from the battlegrounds to the south where Russia is taking towns and villages and Ukrainian forces are being increasingly pushed back.
- To foment discontent in Russia against Vladimir Putin, the Russian government and Russia’s military high command in the hope that Russian public sentiment would cause large protests to facilitate the overthrow of at least one, or all three.
What did the Ukrainians achieve with this operation in the initial stages?
- Was there negligence in not responding to warnings that there was a significant Ukrainian military build up in the adjacent Sumy region? Were warnings received and not acted upon?
- Were insufficient Russian forces stationed in the Kursk region for emergency situations such as this?
- Did the Russian military remove the mines set near the border region with the intent to send Russian troops through in a proposed incursion into the Ukrainian Sumy region which allowed the Ukrainians far easier access to mount their incursion?
- Was such an operation by the Ukrainians given extremely low credence due to its being perceived as having no strategic, operational or tactical benefit for the Ukrainian in terms of the ultimate outcome of the conflict and therefore robust defensive measures were not considered necessary?
What is going on in the Kursk region of Russia now?
- Initially, small groups of Ukrainian forces moved speedily to various locations in raid operations. They covered a wide range of areas up to 15 km into Russian territory. The number of troops in each group was small. The entire initial force was approximately 1,000 strong with a reported 2,000 more in reserve. The campaign appeared very successful initially as the reporting appeared to reflect the raiding troops taking villages under their control. This was inaccurate as the number of Ukrainian troops involved in each raiding party was too small to achieve this.
- After the initial attack with these limited raiding party forces the slower advance of military hardware including some engineering equipment began to progress into the region. These will, in the main, not have reached the furthest areas reached by the fast-moving raiding parties.
- A public relations coup was certainly achieved across the western world and to a more limited degree within the Russian Federation. Through appearing to take one village after another and what appeared to be a significant total number the objectives above of 1a and 1b were certainly achieved.
What is the likely outcome of this Ukrainian offensive and what time scale are we looking at?
- After the initial successes of the Ukrainians and associated mercenary forces Russia is now stabilizing the situation with the reinforcement of positions in each area where the opposition forces have arrived in force.
- Despite opposing forces having spread a false alarm to Kursk region residents in the area beyond their current position to leave their homes due to danger and thus crowding some roads there, Russian defense forces continue to arrive in the as yet lightly occupied region.
- Losses of the Ukrainians force are reportedly very high, amounting to around 1,000 troops/mercenaries, dead or wounded.
- The way the battle for the Kursk region is going the trend can be very much characterized as a stabilization of the situation with Ukrainian forces stopped or slowed with resistance to them growing by the hour due to the arrival of Russian troops and armor and the work of Russian air power.
The certain outcome will be the complete ejection of all opposition forces, whether Ukrainian army or mercenary groups from the Kursk region. This will be followed by a sanitary zone being created within the adjacent Ukrainian Sumy region by the Russian military. The Kiev regime will have lost in the ballpark of 2,000 troops most of whom will be their most highly trained special forces. This will leave the regime even weaker than the already parlous state it was in before this misguided and counter-productive operation.
As for the timescale for both of the above:
- The bulk of opposition forces will likely be forced out of the Kursk region within the next three to five days.
- A mopping up operation to clear any isolated opposition fighters will most likely take a few days longer.
Non sta succedendo dai... anzi..
Ma.per favore fate ridere
superb@ffone
NoTax
Come cambiano le cose, dava del vecchio rinco a biden e ora si ritrova lui vecchio rispetto all’avversaria
penso sarà una lotta dura
Ultima modifica:
captain sparrow
Forumer storico
Si proprio ridere
About the situation in the Belovsky district of the Kursk region (south-east of Sudzha).
Earlier, several Telegram channels reported a "giant breakthrough by the Ukrainian Armed Forces", which caused a terrible stir in local chats.
1. It is calm in Belaya Sloboda itself, that is for sure. People report directly from the field.
2. It really "thunders" loudly. Either the Ukrainian Armed Forces are pounding the territory of Ukraine with FABs, or there is a battle on the border. Let's check.
The situation in Belaya Sloboda, Kursk region, war correspondent Alexander Kharchenko from the scene:
"Emergency connection. I read on the Internet that Belaya has practically already been captured by the enemy. This means that fighting is going on, and the city is practically surrounded.
I am in the centre of Belaya. Here is a fairly famous building, you can easily find it on the Internet. I deliberately drove along the ring road. There is no enemy, no fighting, no Oboyan hears gunfire. While I was driving here, something was shot down in the sky, but most likely it was a drone. For the Belgorod and Kursk regions, it is normal when 10, 20, or 30 drones are shot down in one night. Everyone has long been accustomed to this and does not pay attention to it. I appeal to everyone. Stop spreading rumours. Stop sowing panic among our population. Because this is exactly what the enemy is trying to achieve. So that fear settles in our hearts. So that we begin to panic and act irrationally. Believe in the Russian army. The Russian army will hold out, it will win. And the enemy will be driven out of the Kursk land."
Domani mattina arrivano a kursk
Jedd
GORDON GEKKO
No chances per ciuffo scemo
Jedd
GORDON GEKKO
Le truppe ucraine sono avanzate fino a 30 km all'interno della Russia: a riferirlo è il ministero della Difesa russo, secondo cui l'esercito di Mosca starebbe fronteggiando le forze di Kiev nei villaggi di Tolpino e Obshchy Kolodez, mentre l'offensiva nella regione di Kursk entra nel sesto giorno. Quella ucraina è diventata l'incursione più profonda e significativa da quando Mosca ha iniziato la sua invasione nel 2022.
captain sparrow
Forumer storico
Ho ancora qualche amico di vecchia data in America. Qualche giorno fa ne ho sentito uno. Dice che dell'Ucraina alla gente interessa ben poco. Non ne sente proprio parlare. A suo parere vincerà Trump, ma lui è repubblicano e quindi di parte. Il clima è pesante a suo avviso. In generale dice che la gente non è contenta degli ultimi 4 anni dei democratici. Mi sembra ci sia grande incertezza. Sicuramente sarà lotta dura come dici tu