Situazione Ucraina

 
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Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

While the mainstream propaganda machine continues to run the ludicrous “Moscow is losing” narrative, the Russian military continues with both steady advances in Ukraine and a massive modernization program. Over the previous two days alone, it took over around 100 km² previously under the Neo-Nazi junta’s control. The South Front reports that these advances, mostly by the “Tsentr” (“Center”) Group of Forces, are going steady across the frontlines, resulting in about 1,600 casualties for the Kiev regime and approximately 50 destroyed units of various types of military equipment. The “Tsentr” Group’s assault formations not only managed to advance through the Neo-Nazi junta’s heavily defended positions, but also defeated four motorized infantry brigades (including marines and the National Guard).

In the meantime, the mainstream propaganda machine continues to publish nonsense about the supposed Russian casualties. According to their latest claims, “exactly 780,860 aggressor’s troops were eliminated, 24,672 air targets of invaders were shot down, while nearly 10,000 tanks, 20,000 armored vehicles, over 20,000 artillery systems and well over 2,000 MLRS (multiple launch rocket systems) and SAM (surface-to-air missile) systems were destroyed”.

However, it seems the Russian military didn’t get the memo it got “destroyed” years ago and still continues to advance, stubbornly refusing to accept these numbers as “facts”. It seems that “all those shovels” are doing a pretty good job. And speaking of “shovels”, the Kremlin is getting a lot more of those, particularly in recent days and weeks.

First and foremost, the Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN) continue to be prioritized as the most important segment of the Russian Armed Forces. They just rearmed another missile division with second-to-none “Avangard” hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs), one of the most advanced and powerful weapons ever made. It boasts an unrivaled speed of Mach 28 (nearly 10 km/s or over 33,000 km/h), making it the fastest hypersonic weapon in the world and the only strategic HGV deployed by any country. The unnamed division is reportedly located in the Orenburg oblast (region), implying that it’s part of the 31st Missile Army which is composed of three divisions (8th, 13th and 42nd). The deployment was confirmed on December 18. The 13th Red Banner Missile Division was the first in the world to be equipped with an HGV in 2019.

The “Avangard” was in development in the 1980s, but went dormant after the end of the (First) Cold War. However, after the United States unilaterally withdrew from the ABM (anti-ballistic missile) Treaty in 2002, President Vladimir Putin ordered an immediate reactivation of the program, with the first public announcement about it made in 2004. At the time, it was met with widespread ridicule in the political West, but nobody’s laughing now that at least three RVSN divisions have the HGV while not a single NATO member (the US included) can match Moscow in hypersonic technologies (not even tactical or operational, to say nothing of strategic weapons of this type). To put the “Avangard’s” power into perspective, we can compare it to the recently unveiled “Oreshnik”, which looks like rather “mediocre” in comparison, despite its impressive capabilities.

However, while the political West can still only dream about such weapons, the Kremlin already made adequate defenses against them, including the now legendary S-500 SAM/ABM system. Also on December 18, the Russian military announced that it has completed the formation of its first S-500 divizion (as is known in Russian military nomenclature and is not to be confused with division). The “Prometheus” is a multirole system that can intercept targets flying at around 7 km/s, making it the only such SAM/ABM system in the world. In addition to aircraft and missiles, the S-500 also has anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities. It has the potential to entirely nullify NATO’s strategic ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance), making it particularly dangerous for the political West and its ability to conduct aggression against the world with impunity.

On the other hand, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) are certainly not neglected. In the last several days, new units of Su-34 strike fighters and next-generation Su-57 multirole jets were delivered, adding to the VKS’s already impressive arsenal. The Su-57 delivery (announced on December 23) is the third since mid-September (the previous one was in mid-November), while the Su-34 was received in April, June, September, October and November. Along with the Su-35S, these two types have been particularly effective and are produced in larger numbers than other jets. The exact figures have been a state secret in recent years, but the number of serial Su-57s in active service is likely past 30 (if not close to 40) at this point. In addition to expansion in production, the jet is also getting a steady stream of upgrades.

This also includes next-generation engines that will likely power the upcoming Izdeliye 41 (literally Product 41), colloquially better known as the MiG-41. Various military sources indicate that the Su-57S is now regularly used in deep-strike missions in areas as far as Lvov (near the Polish border). This is partially confirmed by the recent incident involving the S-70 “Okhotnik” drone that the Su-57 was forced to shoot down over an area with a high concentration of the Kiev regime’s air defenses.
 
Opinioni

There Will Be No Peace

by Larry C. Johnson – December 24, 2024

There was a time when I assumed that the Biden Administration was ignoring the intelligence and insisted on propagating what I call, the Russian Myth aka RM. The theology of RM insists that:

  • Putin is terminally ill.
  • Putin is very unpopular.
  • The Russian army is poorly equipped and commanded by incompetents.
  • Russia’s military industrial complex is a hot mess and incapable of producing artillery shells, missiles, tanks and armored personnel carriers.
  • Russia’s economy is in tatters and struggling to stay afloat.
All of this is false. In fact, it is the diametric opposite of the reality. Yet, politicians and the media in the West persist on embracing the lies. The latest example of this comes from the Wall Street Journal, that published the following editorial on Sunday, 22 December:

Russia’s 2022 Istanbul proposal called for Ukraine to abandon aspirations to join NATO, become a permanently neutral state, and drastically shrink its armed forces. This would ratify Russia’s territorial gains and render Ukraine defenseless against inevitable future Russian aggression.

When the Kremlin floated that plan, Russian troops were in Bucha and Irpin—about as close to the center of Kyiv as JFK airport is to midtown Manhattan. Ukraine has since driven the Russians out of Kyiv and the regions of Kherson and Kharkiv, broken Russia’s Black Sea naval blockade, and taken the fight to Russian territory in the Kursk region. But Russia is making gains in Ukraine’s east with the help of China’s technology and North Korean manpower and artillery, albeit at the cost of enormous casualties.

Apart from correctly noting that Russia’s Istanbul proposal was made in 2022, everything else presented by the WSJ editors was wrong. For example, Russia’s proposal stipulated that the Donbass would remain under Ukraine’s control — i.e., Russia was willing to give up territory it occupied in exchange for Ukraine eschewing NATO membership. The WSJ editors also double down on the lie that Russia is suffering “enormous casualties.” WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!

Here is the problem: When the intelligence agencies lie to the political leaders and the leaders act on those lies, the leaders will do the wrong thing. In this case, the Trump team appears to believe that Putin and Russia are on the ropes and desperate for a deal. That is akin to believing that the Kremlin is short of cash and needs to restructure its debt, when the fact is that the Kremlin coffers are full and Russia is flush with cash. Russia has no incentive to negotiate according to the mythical framework the Trump team has embraced.

I think Putin’s position is simple and clear — no NATO membership for Ukraine, ever; and NATO ends all military exercises and activities targeting Russia. Ceasefire in place? Not interested. Russia will end the war in Ukraine on its terms, not any other way.

An agreement along the lines of Minsk II is impossible because of the deceit employed by Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s François Hollande in negotiating Minsk II — i.e., the agreement, per a subsequent admission by Merkel, was a ruse to buy time to rebuild the Ukrainian army. Russia ain’t going down that road again.

Danny Davis and I discussed the latest diplomatic gymnastics and contortions between the United States and Russia:


Link: https://sonar21.com/until-the-west-
 
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