l'uragano sta entrando nel golfo del messico....
National Hurricane Center
There are several commodities that should be on your radar during hurricane season:
Orange Juice: This is probably a favorite play with commodity traders during hurricane season. It seems like Florida has a big bulls-eye on it for hurricanes and most of the oranges that are used for juice are located in central to south Florida. The hurricanes of 2005 caused some serious damage to the orange crops and that is still fresh on many traders’ minds.
In order for a hurricane to cause damage to the orange crops, it will have to cross Florida in the central to southern part. Touching the coast of Florida and moving back into the ocean will not do much damage, as most of the crops are inland.
Natural gas: Hurricanes Rita and Katrina in 2005 caused mass destruction and disruption to the natural gas industry. The Gulf Coast accounts for 40 percent of the U.S. natural gas production. Natural gas flows from the Gulf were basically cut in half after the hurricanes in 2005.
So, you can see why the natural gas futures get a bit jittery whenever a hurricane finds its way into the Gulf of Mexico. Prices tend to rise out of more than just pure speculation. Many of the platforms and pipelines have to be shutdown if a hurricane is in the neighborhood, or just on the radar, for safety reasons. This, of course, takes supplies off the market and causes prices to jump. Prices can move back to normal with a hurricane miss or prices could skyrocket with a direct hit.
Crude oil: The same issues relate to crude oil,
gasoline and
heating oil as they do for natural gas. The drilling platforms are located off the Gulf Coast and refineries are predominately in the Houston area. The hurricanes of 2005 also caused severe damage to the oil industry.
Cotton: Damage can be caused to the cotton crops if they are in the path of a hurricane. Most of the cotton crops are grown in Texas and the Mississippi Delta. Hurricane winds, heavy rains and flooding can damage cotton crops and even disrupt harvesting. Hurricanes that are slow moving often dump massive amounts of rains, which may cause more damage.
Grains:
Corn,
soybeans and
wheat can all be affected by hurricanes, although it is not too common for crops to be damaged. Sometimes hurricanes move up the Mississippi Delta into the Midwest and dump a lot of rain. This can cause flooding of the crops, especially if the soil is already saturated. If the hurricane is late in the season, it can disrupt harvesting of the crops.
Sometimes hurricanes can actually benefit crops. If the weather has been dry in the Midwest or other areas where the grains are grown, a hurricane can bring much needed rainfall. Prices could actually plummet with the advent of a hurricane.
Another area to watch is potential damage to shipping ports and facilities. These are prevalent on the Mississippi River. Damage to major shipping ports could keep grains off the world market, which might be positive or negative for prices, depending whether other exporting countries could fill the gap. However, if storage facilities are damaged or the grains can’t move anywhere, that could be very positive for prices moving much higher.
Sugar: Florida and Louisiana are your targets for sugar. The southern regions of both states are where sugar cane is predominately grown. Cuba is also a producer of sugar, but Brazil and India are the major producers in the world. South Florida and Cuba are often in the paths of hurricanes, but there is not enough production in these areas to cause a huge move in sugar futures. However, sugar could make a decent run with significant crop damage.
